PIGSKIN
Championship
Sunday
RESULTS
Regular Season
Overall Record ATS: 120-94-8 (+18)
Schmear of the Week: 4-13-1 (-30)
Bagels in the Basket: -12
POST-SEASON
PLAYOFF RECORD ATS: 4-6 (-6)
SCHMEAR of the DAY: 2-1 (+10)
BAGELS in the BASKET: +4
CHAMPIONSHIP SUNDAY
Saturday Line ~ NYP/MGM
NATIONAL FOOTBALL CONFERENCE
CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
PACKERS -3 1/2 Bucs 🥯 🥯 🥯
Out of the NFL's regular-season top ten defenses in yards allowed per game, only two remain in the playoffs, and they meet this Sunday at Lambeau Field. Tampa finished the regular season number one against the run, and they get after the quarterback well, but their secondary is very suspect. Green Bay features the NFC's fourth-best run game. That said, Green Bay's offensive line has been playing great of late, and Aaron Rogers poses a much larger threat to the Bucs secondary than did Drew Brees. Tampa can slow down the Packers running game and even contain Rogers from scattering about. But, afforded ample time, Aaron Rogers will pick them apart. If the Saints put up twenty points against the Bucs, I expect the Packers to put up more. Defensively, the post-season Packers are yielding the least amount of yardage of all four remaining teams. Tom Brady is a statue; he can be found. But can the Packers' pass rush get to him? Pressure must come up the middle, not exactly Green Bay's forte. But if the Packers bottle up Tampa's run game, they can afford to blitz, often. The Bucs are running well of late, but it's starting to border on hype. They still finished among the league's bottom tier in rushing. Otherwise, Brady will kill them with timing and accuracy and has the weapons to get it done. Whichever defense plays best and makes more plays wins. Aaron Rogers can extend plays on the fly, Brady not so much. Brady is copacetic with cold weather; is the rest of Tampa? We'll see. I'm not overly impressed with Tampa's victories over Washington and New Orleans. Green Bay shut down the Rams offense, and their secondary is also better than Tampa's. My gut says the Bucs are a better team, but I'm going with the Packers at home.
Loss 31-26 Bucs
AMERICAN FOOTBALL CONFERENCE
CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
Bills +3 CHIEFS 🥯 🥯 🥯
Two defensively average teams who feature two of the more dynamic quarterbacks in football. But after watching Pat Mahomes trying to stand up and recover from being concussed, one has to wonder about his state. He's also dealing with a hurt toe. But Mahomes will have help. The Chiefs can run the ball much better than the Bills. A mailman can rush better than the Bills. Therefore, the Chiefs can potentially keep Josh Allen on the sidelines longer than Buffalo prefers. But we're still talking about two of the most aggressive teams in football. Buffalo (with no run game) defeated the Colts and the Ravens to get here. The Chiefs disposed of the Browns, who had more problems than a math book. These teams met back in October; the Chiefs won 26-17 at Buffalo. Both quarterbacks threw two touchdowns apiece, but Buffalo had no answer for Kansas City's running game. Josh Allen was just 14/27 for 122 yards with an INT that day. Josh Allen, today, is an entirely different animal. I foresee him performing substantially better this time around. The Colts and Ravens featured top tier defenses, the Chiefs not so much. There's something special going on with New York State's best football team. My son believes the Bills will win the Super Bowl. So, blame him if this goes awry. As they say ... any given Sunday.
Loss 38-24 Chiefs
SCHMEAR of the DAY 🥯 10x
#BillsMafia +3
LOSS
Postseason Record ATS: 4-8 (-12)
Schmear of the Day: 2-2 (flat)
Bagels in the Basket: -12
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