N.Y. Mets: On the Bullpen's Three Game Trend

From the desk: HEAD-BUTTING MR. MET

TRUCKING UP I-95 ON THE LAST LEG HOME

OPENING DAY

Marlins

vs.

Mets

FROM

ROOSEVELT AVENUE GROUNDS

Flushing, Queens

Edwin Diaz Coming to a Ballpark Near You

If you follow me, you're familiar with one of my rules of thumb: once is an event, twice is a coincidence, and three times is a trend.  

Insofar as trending, there is the micro and the macro.  For the moment, we have a three-game series at Philadelphia to speak of.  By mid-April, we will have three series to compare and contrast.  

The point being, I apply equal importance to early-season games as I would to any in June or September.  I believe in getting off to good starts with the idea that you cannot win pennants in April, but you can certainly lose them.

Therefore, with great angst, I say the Mets will go as far as their bullpen carries them.  I'm not breaking new ground here.  That is just the modern condition of baseball.  

In the first three games alone, the Mets relievers relinquished a lead, upheld a lead in game two, then played a rather inconsequential role in Wednesday afternoon's loss against the Phillies.

Manager Luis Rojas called upon three relievers in each of the first three games.  In games one and two,  Miguel Castro and Trevor May were joined by Aaron Loup and Jeurys Familia.  On Wednesday, Jacob Barnes, Dellin Betances, and Joey Lucchesi each made their season debut. 

Overall, the bullpen has accounted for 36% of the Mets 25 total innings pitched.  Seven different relievers have joined together to throw 194 pitches, with 118 (60.8%) going for strikes.  They've yielded six earned runs on 13 hits and three walks through nine innings for a 6.00 ERA and 1.77 WHiP with eleven strikeouts.  Still slated to be a starter, Joey Lucchesi distinguished himself by allowing one lone hit with three strikeouts through two innings pitched. 

Despite David Peterson lasting just four innings Wednesday against the Phillies, the Mets' first three starters, in turn, accounted for 64% of all innings pitched.  By midsummer, I expect the starting rotation to account for at least 68% of innings pitched.  In the meantime, Peterson's abbreviated start raised the bullpen's average usage up to three innings per game.

On Thursday, the Mets host the Miami Marlins for Opening Day at Citi Field.  Edwin Diaz is likely to make his season debut at home, assuming the Mets own a late-inning lead.  Lest we forget, last year the Marlins qualified for the post-season, and the Mets did not.  

Robert Gsellman is also yet to make his first appearance.

I eagerly await to see the next trios of relievers Luis Rojas deploys against the Marlins because that's how he's trending. 

N.Y. Mets: Hoping Trevor May Brings Stability to Bullpen Uncertainty

From the desk: HEAD-BUTTING MR. MET

PITCHERS & CATCHERS

⚾

THE BULLPEN

• Pitchers & Catchers: deGrominator Rising
• Pitchers & Catchers: Pressure on Marcus Stroman to Form One-Two Punch
• Pitchers & Catchers: Difference Between Good And Great Could Be Carlos Carrasco
• Pitchers & Catchers: Can David Peterson Pick Up Where He Left Off?
  
• A Metsian Podcast: Reporting to Camp with Baseball Writer & Analyst Ernest Dove

Trevor May Entering Strange New World

Considering the recent injury to Seth Lugo, newly acquired Trevor May might already be the Mets best reliever for all intent and purpose without even having thrown a pitch.  That speaks to how badly the rest of this bullpen riddles me with anxiety.

There are the returnees: Jeurys Familia, Dellin Betances, Robert Gsellman, Miguel Castro, the injured Seth Lugo, and perhaps Jerry Blevins.  There's the main free-agent addition Aaron Loup, and a clutch of potentials, prospects, minor signees, and spring invitees such as Mike Montgomery, Tommy Hunter,  Thomas Szapucki, the familiar Drew Smith, Jacob Barnes, and Sam McWilliams, to name a few. 

For a split second, Familia and Betances were being shopped around in what was being rumored as a salary dump.  But when other key free-agent relievers signed elsewhere, the undynamic duo again suddenly became indispensable.  

Betances last season struggled with a 7.71 ERA, a career-high .353 BABIP, and a WHiP over two in 15 appearances while yielding an untenable ten runs on twelve hits and twelve walks in only 11.2 innings pitched.  His velocity has plummeted from a career-high 98.4mph in 2017 to 94.9mph last season, a loss of 3.5mph in three years.  Meanwhile, Jeurys Familia, whose velocity remains constant at 97.0mph, simply walks too many batters, reflected by last year's 6.4 W/9 average, a bloated 1.463 WHiP, and career-high (full-season) 4.92 FIP.  However, he still somehow posted a representative .204 average against and .247 BABIP.

Robert Gsellman remains a likable member of the bullpen.  But truth be told, since his rookie season, he has been nothing short of ineffective.  You can look it up.  As for Edwin Diaz, he'll get his own narrative coming shortly.

In the meantime, the burden inevitably being placed upon all the aforementioned relievers' shoulders originates with the starting rotation.  Over the course of their respective careers, Jacob deGrom averages 6.1 innings per start, and Marcus Stroman averages an even six innings.  Carlos Carrasco and Taijuan Walkers are next in, averaging 5.2 innings per start.  Further down the depth chart, David Peterson and Joey Lucchesi average 5.1 innings, while Jordan Yamamoto clocks in at five innings flat.  That means, on average, the Mets bullpen will be responsible for 3.2 innings per game, or, said another way, eleven outs ... again, on average.

All the concerns listed herein are precisely why Trevor May's upcoming role in Queens is destined to be far different, or should I say more treacherous, from the one he grew accustomed to at Minneapolis.  Last season he was placed in just three save situations, and over the last three seasons has only faced ten save situations (successfully converting seven).  If recent Flushing history is any indication, the 31-year old right-hander will be afforded numerous more opportunities despite whether or not Edwin Diaz fulfills his primary role as closer.  Two seasons ago, Mets relievers were placed into 65 save situations; Edwin Diaz converted 26 of 33 opportunities while the remaining bullpen saved twelve games in near-equal 32 opportunities.  During last year's abbreviated season, the bullpen was faced with 18 save situations.  Diaz converted six of ten opportunities, and the rest saved five of eight chances. 

KNOW TREVOR MAY

Called up after the trade deadline in 2014, Trevor in 2015 appeared in 48 games and made 16 starts in his first full season with the Twins.  He posted a 4.00 ERA, a 1.344 WHiP, and 3.80 FIP, with 127 hits allowed, a 2.0 W/9 average, and 110 strikeouts through 114.2 innings pitched.  

His 2016 season was compromised by a back injury, and he would subsequently require Tommy John surgery.  After missing all of 2017, Trevor returned to action on the last day of July 2018 to post a promising 3.20 ERA, a 1.026 WHiP, and 3.08 FIP while allowing 21 hits and striking out 36 batters over a brief 25.1 innings pitched.  

This brings us to MLB's last full season, which happened to be Trevor May's first full season post-Tommy John surgery.  In 2019, Trevor appeared in 65 games, posting a career-low 2.94 ERA and a 1.073 WHiP, yielding 43 hits and fanning 79 batters through 64.1 innings.  However, despite a marked decrease from a 7.5 H/9 to a 6.0 H/9 mark, a considerably lowered BABIP, and a career-low .181 average against, he saw his W/9 average, ERA+, and FIP climb significantly.  He pitched in consecutive games eleven times during the season and only once pitched in three straight games.

From his rookie season of 2014 through 2016, Trevor May's velocity increased from 93.1mph to 95.0mph before TJ surgery.  By 2019, he was up to 95.9mph.

Last year he clocked in at a career-high 96.7mph but threw it a career-low 51.8% of the time after averaging 60.6% over his first five seasons.  Trevor in 2020 also abandoned his curveball when it once comprised 14.1% of his repertoire.  Instead, May more than doubled usage (32.6%) of his slider while mixing in a change with a 15.6% rate of frequency.  Net result, he posted career-highs with a 14.7 K/9 average and 39.6 K% through 24 appearances, and 23.1 innings pitched.  His W/9 and FIP improved slightly.  However, his 3.86 ERA, 1.157 WHiP, .326 BABIP, 7.7 H/9 average, and .225 average against, while not terrible by any stretch, all represent increases over the previous season. 

Otherwise, may Trevor's force be with us.

N.Y. Mets: Can't Save Themselves From The Dog Days of Spring

From the desk of: HEAD-BUTTING MR. MET

GATES CLOSED

The Regular Season is Now a Matter of Record.  

So What Happened?

The Mets played exactly 23 meaningful games in September.  Ironically a victory over the Miami Marlins is their last, as the competition squeezes them out of post-season contention at the 158 game mark.  They finish the regular season in third place, eleven games back of first, and three games out of the wild card race.  With an 86-76 (.531) record the Mets at least assure themselves of their first winning season in three years.  

While many if not most fans and media point to the Mets 27 blown saves as the main reason why they failed to qualify for the playoffs, there's also something to be said for what is becoming a habitual Spring swoon.  From May 15 through the end of June the Mets post an 18-27 record featuring five and seven game losing streaks respectively.  By July 5 they are ten games under .500 sporting a 40-50 record.  It is during this dreadful two month period that a great majority of this season's blown saves occur.

THE DOG DAYS of SPRING

• May/June 2015:  25-30 (.454); 65-42 (.607) rest of season.
• May/June 2016:  26-30 (.464); 61-45 (.575) rest of season.
• May/June 2017:  27-28 (.491); 43-64 (.402) rest of season.
• May/June 2018:  15-39 (.278); 62-46 (.574) rest of season.
• May/June 2019:  23-33 (.411); 63-43 (.594) rest of season.

Last season with the Mariners Edwin Diaz posts a 1.96 ERA through 73.1 innings pitched.  He converts a major league best 57 of 61 save opportunities for a 93% success rate with four blown saves. In his first season with the Mets he converts 26 of 33 save opportunities for a 79% success rate with seven blown saves.  He yields a career high 15 home runs skyrocketing his ERA upwards of 5.59 in 58.0 innings pitched.  Since Diaz led the Mets in blown saves, he naturally bears the brunt of criticism.  But make no mistake, New York's bullpen inefficiencies were a collective effort.  Edwin Diaz accounts for 26% of all Mets blown saves - seven for Diaz and 20 blown saves for everyone else.  That begs the question: who is responsible for blowing the other 74% of save opportunities?

THE CULPRITS

• Edwin Diaz: (26/33) 79% conversions; 7 blown saves.
• Drew Gagnon/Wilmer Font/Brad Brach/Tyler Bashlor: (0/6) 0% conversions; 6 blown saves.
• Seth Lugo: (6/11) 54% conversions; 5 blown saves.
• Robert Gsellman: (1/5) 20% conversions; 4 blown saves.
• Jeurys Familia: (0/4) 0% conversions; 4 blown saves.
• Justin Wilson: (4/5) 80% conversions; 1 blown save.
• Paul Sewald: (1/1) 100% conversions; 0 blown saves.

There are still another 13 relief pitchers so far unmentioned here whom this past season appeared out of the Mets bullpen.  Outside of Luis Avilan, very few if any are worth mentioning.  However, none were put into save situations.

And what of the competition?  How are they trending?

San Diego's 32-year old Kirby Yates comes out of nowhere to post a National League leading 44 saves, with a 93% conversion rate, and only three blown saves.  Alas the Padres are not in the playoffs.  Also home watching TV are Cincinnati's Raisel Iglesias who posts 34 saves, with an 85% conversion rate and six blown saves, and San Francisco's Will Smith who likewise posts 34 saves with an 89% conversion rate and only four blown saves.  Rounding out the National League's top five closers, Milwaukee's Josh Harder finishes second with 37 saves, off an 84% conversion rate with seven blown saves.  L.A.'s Kenley Jansen saves 33 games with an 80% conversion rate and eight blown saves.

National League Playoff Qualifiers

• Atlanta Braves: 66% conversions; 23 blown saves.
• St. Louis Cardinals: 71% conversions; 21 blown saves.
• Los Angeles Dodgers: 60% conversions; 29 blown saves.
• Washington Nationals: 58% conversions; 29 blown saves.
• Milwaukee Brewers: 64% conversions; 28 blown saves.

• National League Averaage: 61.4% conversions; 25 blown saves.
• NEW YORK METS: (38/65) 58% CONVERSIONS; 27 BLOWN SAVES.

American League Playoff Qualifiers

• N.Y. Yankees: 63% conversions; 28 blown saves.
• Houston Astros: 70% conversions; 20 blown saves.
• Minnesota Twins: 69% conversions; 22 blown saves.
• Oakland A's: 59% conversions; 31 blown saves.
• Tampa Bay Rays: 63% conversions; 27 blown saves.

Every team blows saves.  But in the National League only the Mets, Nationals, Cubs, Pirates, Rockies, and Marlins, fail to convert at least 60% of their opportunities.  Washington survives the wild card game.  In the American League, Oakland does not.  

Make of it what you will.

N.Y. Mets: Giving Blown Saves a Name

From the desk of:  HEAD-BUTTING MR. MET

MY KINGDOM FOR A SAVE

We know the Mets are blowing half their save opportunities.  Flushing is up in arms about it.  But simply blaming "the bullpen" is no longer good enough.  It's time to name names.

While I'm not a big fan of WAR, I'm not necessarily averse to it.  That said, Edwin Diaz' -0.4 WAR is terrible.  His overall numbers are quite unsightly for a closer but there's a weak argument to be made he is still doing his job.  Diaz is 1-6 with a 5.50 ERA and a 1.46 WHiP.  He has so far yielded 39 hits, including seven home runs, and issued eleven walks though 34.1 innings pitched.  Compared to last season his rate of line drives and fly balls are up and his rate of ground balls is down.  He is throwing his fastball slightly more than last season and in turn is throwing his slider less.  Yet his velocity appears unchanged (all) according to Fangraphs.  Diaz naturally leads the Mets with 23 save opportunities and to date has converted 19 (83%) of them.  His four blown saves account for 19% of all Mets blown saves this season.

Mickey Callaway to date has summoned 22 other pitchers from the bullpen including starters Steven Matz and Jason Vargas.  But only six of them are ever put into save situations.  Justin Wilson, recovering from injury, converts his lone save opportunity of the season.  Drew Gagnon accounts for one blown save.  However the trio of Seth Lugo, Tyler Bashlor, and Jeurys Famila, are 0 for 11 in save opportunities which accounts for 52% of all Mets blown saves.

At least Gsellman has converted one save through five opportunities.  But if we lump together Seth Lugo, Robert Gsellman, Tyler Bashlor, and Jeurys Familia, they've combined on 17 save opportunities but just two save conversions.  That's a rate of 88% blown saves or a 12% conversion rate - pick your poison.

• Seth Lugo - 3.35 ERA; 4 BS
• Robert Gsellman - 5.09 ERA; 4 BS
• Tyler Bashlor - 5.40 ERA; 3 BS
• Jeurys Familia - 7.59 ERA; 4 BS
• Edwin Diaz - 5.50 ERA; 4 BS

But what of the competition?

San Diego leads the National League with 51 save opportunities and a league high 35 (68%) save conversions.  The Mets are second with 42 save opportunities, but lead the league with 21 (50%) blown saves.  The league average is 65% conversion rate.  San Francisco has had the least amount of save opportunities, yet lead the National League with an 84% conversion rate; Cincinnati is second with a 73% conversion rate; Milwaukee is third in the National League with a 72% success rate.  Even Miami is converting saves at a rate of 71% but have created the second least opportunities for themselves.  Among the Mets other division competitors Atlanta is converting 61% of save opportunities, Washington is converting at a 56% rate, and the Phillies are one of five National League teams converting at least 70% of their opportunities.

The Mets are not one of them.

In the meantime, Brodie says there's enough talent in place, and 72 games left in the season for the bullpen to prove their mettle.

That is all ...

• NYM Baseball Reference

N.Y. Mets: Mickey Singing The Bullpen Blues

From the desk of:  HEAD-BUTTING MR. MET

OPENING DAY SERIES

Nats def. Mets; 2-1

I - WAS 4; NYM 0

II - NYM 6; WAS 5

III- WAS12; NYM 9

New York Mets: Will the trustworthy relief pitchers please stand up and identify themselves.

The Mets have nine games in the books.  All but two of their relief pitchers already have five appearances each.  Of the 81 total innings played to date, the bullpen has accounted for 43% or 35.1 innings pitched. That's a reasonable load considering this early stage of the season.  Their actual performance, not so much.  They've surrendered 20 earned runs for a collective 5.12 ERA; allowed 35 hits and issued 16 walks for an unsightly 1.459 WHiP; and amassed 35 strikeouts for an 8.9 K/9 average.

At least Edwin Diaz is performing up to expectations.  He has thus far allowed two hits and a walk, with five strikeouts and four saves through 3.2 scoreless innings of work.

Unfortunately the same can't be said for Jeurys Familia, Seth Lugo, and Robert Gsellman.  Each is presently performing worse than the next.  Familia has surrendered three earned runs on four hits (two home runs) and three walks for a 5.40 ERA through five innings pitched.  Lugo has allowed five earned runs on eight hits and three walks for a 9.64 ERA through 4.2 innings.  And Gsellman has allowed nine hits and three earned runs in five innings pitched.  Together, the three boast a problematic 6.97 ERA.

And those are the guys I trust ...

Tim Peterson is leading a conga line with six walks and four hits through four innings.  Meanwhile Luis Avilan's ineffectiveness is only worsening matters.  As such, Mickey Callaway has called upon Avilan the fewest times for a reason.  The 29-year old import has allowed six earned runs on five hits and two walks in just 2.1 innings pitched.  In turn, he himself becomes a burden on the bullpen.  I suspect BVW will revisit Avilan's status in the very near future.

After a bad first impression import Justin Wilson thankfully is performing well, allowing just one earned run on three hits and a walk, for a 1.59 ERA and 0.71 WHiP, with five strikeouts over a bullpen leading 5.2 innings pitched.

This bullpen will ultimately make Mickey Callaway appear smart, or get him fired.  Good thing for him, it's early.  But we shall see.  The starting pitching plays a part in this too.

• Mets.com/stats

N.Y. Mets: The Autumnal Equinox Metsian Podcast

From the desk of:  HEAD-BUTTING MR. MET

Sam, Rich, and I present you 

Episode #21 of a Metsian Podcast with special guest, 

author Greg Prince of Faith and Fear in Flushing.com

Two Hours

Lots-O-Stuff

Second-half and September play ~ Last home stand of season ~ Finishing strong

The Raging Denton True Young Debate

Jacob deGrom/Sustainability vs. Max Scherzer/Fading Fast

The Best of David Wright Round Table

Subway Series ~ World Series ~ Triple Crown threat

Captain America ~ Toast of the Town

Wilmer's knees ~ When Nature calls ~ The Ghost of Kevin Bass

Amed Rosario ~ Jeff McNeil ~ Michael Conforto

Cleon Jones ~ Lucas Duda ~ NYC in 1921 ~ Carlos Delgado

Mickey Callaway's progress ~ Sandy Alderson's fingerprints

and so much more ...

N.Y. Mets: The We Just Want Meaningful Conversation in September Metsian Podcast

From the desk of:  HEAD-BUTTING MR. MET

Partner @MetFanRich and I bring you a 

wide ranging and very straight forward Metsian discussion.

1 hour, 18 minutes

 

STUFF

California fool's gold rush ~ Bobby Ojeda ~ Home Run Baker

PON vs. Son of PON ~ Omar Minaya ~ scouting vs. analytics

Pitching ~ Pitching ~ Pitching

DeGrom's streak ~ Thor's Hammer ~ The Wonder Wheeler ~ Dwight Gooden

Terry Collins ~ Bullpen ~ Closer ~ What Inning Limits?

Mickey Callaway ~ Dave Eiland ~ Wally Backman ~ Frank Viola

Home Run Baker ~ Tim Foli ~ Ryan Church ~ gambling ~ The Black Sox

Pragmatism ~ more Cy Young talk ... and so much more!

N.Y. Mets: The Old Good Fan/Bad Fan Metsian Podcast Routine

From the desk of:  HEAD-BUTTING MR. MET

Moving right along ... but where?

Partner Sam Maxwell and I go head-to-head in 

a very spirited Episode 18 of A METSian Podcast. 

 

1 Hour, 4 Minutes

David Wright rejoining the team ~ Peter Alonso not joining the team

I continue ripping Noah Syndergaard; Sam supports Jason Vargas

On Robert Gsellman: Sam is pro-closer; I'm anti-closer

 Innings limits be damned ~ Seth Logo ~ Jennry Mejia?

How does 2017-2018 compare to 1978-1979 ~ Agents Gone Wild

Travis d'Arnaud ~ Darryl Strawberry ~ Juan Lagares

Michael Conforto ~ Jay Bruce ~ Todd Frazier ~ Benny Ayala

Amed Rosario and Willie Mays Hayse ... yes, Major League

!!..Proper Prior Planning Prevents Piss Poor Performance..!!

Baseball in NYC, 1918

Brooklyn Robins ~ New York Giants ~ New York Yankees

Burleigh Grimes ~ Waite Hoyt ~ Miller Huggins

N.Y. Mets: Roosevelt Ave Sluggers Too Much for Bronx Bombers

From the desks of:  HEAD-BUTTING MR. MET  and  BLAME CARLOS MAY

NEW YORK, NEW YORK;

It's a hell of a town.

The Bronx slipped up; Flushing Queens is down;

The people ride in a crumbling hole in the ground.

NEW YORK, NEW YORK

Run by a Bunch of Clowns!

Add C.C. Sabathia to the list of disabled.  He will miss his next two starts due to right knee inflammation.  On the brighter side, a troublesome knee is nothing new to Sabathia.  It's something he manages.  Nevertheless, it's an untimely setback for the Yankees starting rotation.  The news comes on the heels of Sunny Gray's demotion to the bullpen, and newly acquired J.A. Happ contracting Hand, Foot, Mouth disease.

Sabathia is coming off a six inning one-hit shut-out performance in Sunday's Yankees victory over the Texas Rangers.  In 22 starts to date, he's 7-4 with a very respectable 3.32 ERA and 1.28 WHiP, with 106 strikeouts through 119.1 innings pitched.

He was given a fourteen day break between starts during the all-star break.  This next 10-day stint on the disabled list just may prove beneficial for the 38-year old veteran.  If the Yankees are to catch the Red Sox, or at minimum maintain control of the Wild Card, they'll need a reliable C.C. in September.  Although it's "only" mid-August, if one considers the length of a post-season run, his creaky hinge comes into question.

That said, the Yankees are now down three very key components: Sabathia, Gary Sanchez, and Aaron Judge, whom is still experiencing pain in his wrist.  As such, their margin of error diminishes with every Boston, Oakland, and Seattle victory.

Despite Monday night's subway series make-up loss at the Stadium, the Yankees end the day with the second best record in baseball, but you'd never know it.  Fans officially are in a panic.  In a season only baseball can script, the best record of all belongs to the team atop the A.L. East standings hailing from Boston.  While the Yankees sport an impressive (74-34) record, the idle Red Sox entered Monday's action FIFTY!! games over .500, and now own a ten game lead over the Yankees.

Jacob deGrom  vs.  Luis Severino

The crosstown Mets give the Yankees something else to ponder Monday night.  They knock Yankees starter Luis Severino out of the box with a first inning home run by Amed Rosario, a fourth inning home run by Jose Bautista.  Overall Mets strike seven hits off Severino in just four innings pitched.  

• In his last seven starts, Luis Severino has surrendered 31 earned runs in 36 innings pitched for a very problematic 7.75 ERA.  Despite 35 strikeouts, he has allowed 54 hits and nine walks for a 1.75 WHiP.

The Mets receive much needed insurance on home runs by Todd Frazier, Brandon Nimmo, and Michael Conforto.

Starter Jacob deGrom surrenders three runs, just two earned, on five hits and a pair of walks through 6.2 innings pitched.  He exits on the winning side of a 7-3 game but not before fanning twelve batters.  Jerry Blevins closes out the seventh in relief of deGrom.  However, Seth Lugo surrenders a two-run home run to Miguel Andujar making it a 7-5 Mets lead.

• Mets have all of a sudden scored fifteen runs in Jacob deGrom's last two starts.  Jacob deGrom finally evens his record to 7-7 with a 1.81 ERA.  He has surrendered four runs in a game just once all season, against the Marlins back on Apr. 10 at Miami,and is now just four innings away from tying Dwight Gooden's club record of consecutive starts allowing three runs or less (per SNY post game).

In the top of the ninth, Gleyber Torres mishandles Didi's throw to second base on a potential double-play ball, allowing the Mets their eighth run of the evening, and their final margin of victory.

Robert Gsellman closes out the Yankees in the bottom of the ninth to earn his seventh save of the season.

The Mets win their 50th game of the season.

N.Y. Mets: The Summer Solstice METSian Podcast

From the desk of:  HEAD-BUTTING MR. MET

East Side, West Side, everybody is going mad.  It's only the first day of Summer, yet the media, fans, and the organization itself are already contemplating another rebuild.  This is certainly a ponderous and somewhat unexpected state of affairs.  Sam, Rich and I discussed the merits and folly of such thinking, and if in fact the Mets can get themselves healthy and straightened out before the trade deadline.  Until then the emergence of Brandon Nimmo begs the question: is he a legitimate all-star candidate?  However there's no debating Jacob deGrom's credentials.  Despite the Mets present standing, his stellar season did not go under-spoken.




We left no stone un-turned.  When I host, I like taking things from the top and working my way down the ladder.  Thus we kicked the show off with the Rockies series, then delved into some unsightly team numbers and the standings.  From there we jumped into the starting rotation and bullpen.  Of course, there was no avoiding the 800-pound gorilla in the room - blowing up the team and potentially trading Jacob deGrom and/or Noah Syndergaard.  We shook our pom-poms for Brandon Nimmo and Asdrubal Cabrera, and had or customary fun reminiscing over players who've worn number twelve.  Lastly, we spent a few minutes speaking about the 1912 Brooklyn Dodgers, New York Giants, and New York Highlanders.

Showtime: 90 minutes

The Greatest Start in N.Y. Mets History Podcast

From the desk of:  HEAD-BUTTING MR. MET

AMAZIN'

Mickey Callaway and the New York Mets are off to their best start in the organization's fifty-six year history.  They've jumped out to a 10-1 start, and are in the midst of an eight game winning streak.  After opening the season with series victories over the St. Louis Cardinals and Philadelphia Phillies, the Mets pressed forward with series sweeps over the rival Washington Nationals and Miami Marlins.

An Off-Day METSian Podcast: Is This Real?

I hosted, joined by Rich and featured guest Greg Prince from FaithAndFearInFlushing.com

This is our first podcast of the regular season, and we damn near covered everything.
Salute to Rusty Staub ~ Team's Historic Start ~ Mickey Callaway ~ Dave Eiland
Callaway vs. Terry Collins ~ Starting Pitchers ~ Bullpen ~ All Positions Players.
1 hour; 40 minutes ~ Packed Full-o-Stuff.

N.Y. Mets: Callaway Era Successfully Clears Launching Pad

From the desk of:  HEAD-BUTTING MR. MET

Mets lead series 2-0

I - NYM 9; STL 4

II - NYM 6; STL 2

Series Finale

St. Louis Cardinals

vs.

New York Mets

FROM

Roosevelt Avenue Grounds

QUEENS

New York Mets: Up, Up, And Callaway We Go...!

So far, so good ...

A pair of victories over the St. Louis Cardinals with a chance to sweep on Easter Sunday is a fine start to any regular season - much less Mickey Callaway's first as manager of the New York Mets.  If this keeps up, Mets fans should have little problem giving off-season changes their final stamp of approval.

Two games, though, is far from trend setting.  Yet, Coach Callaway has already made things quite discussion worthy nonetheless.  Although he was mainly hired to harness this team's pitching potential, his choice of line-ups thus far have made the greatest impressions, and impact.

Game One

• Nimmo; Cespedes; Bruce; Cabrera; Frazier; Gonzalez; Plawecki; Syndergaard; Rosario.

Game Two

• Cabrera; Cespedes; Bruce; Frazier; d'Arnaud; Gonzalez; Lagares; deGrom; Rosario.

Lead-off Hitter:

Once Michael Conforto returns, both the center field and lead-off hitter situations will obviously change.  In the meantime, we knew Brandon Nimmo and Juan Lagares would be platooning.  Therefore, I'm not fielding any gripes about both receiving a start each despite facing two right-handed starting pitchers.  Again ... two games does not a trend make.

Nimmo started Opening Day and went 2 for 3, with a walk, and two runs scored.  On Saturday, Juan Lagares did not lead-off, but went 2 for 4 with a run scored nonetheless.  Asdrubal Cabrera went from hitting clean-up on Opening Day to the lead-off spot on Saturday, and went 3 for 5 with a double, RBI, and a run scored.  Through two games, the Mets lead-off hitters are 5 for 8 (.625) with a walk, RBI, and three runs scored.

Batting Second:

I understand why Mickey Callaway is doing it.  This is about manipulating the bottom of the order in anticipation of, and getting his most lethal hitter more at-bats and better pitches to hit, then providing maximum protection throughout the middle of the order behind him.  Coach isn't exactly breaking with conventional wisdom here.  It's been done before.  It's also an attempt at minimizing the pitcher's potential dead-spot in the line-up.  I'm just not a proponent of batting Yoenis Cespedes second.  Regardless what I think, Coach Callaway's decision is paying off.  Yoenis is 3 for 7 with three walks, a home run, three RBI, and two runs scored.

Questionable Three Strategy:

It's always been the unwritten rule that a team's best hitter bat third.  Coach Callaway has twice penciled in Jay Bruce, whom so far is 1 for 8 with two walks, an RBI, and a run scored.  In the spirit of Callaway's new ways, I would consider batting Asdrubal Cabrera third, and have Bruce clean-up.

Clean-Up Hitter:

Coach got every one's attention when he charged Asdrubal Cabrera with hitting clean-up on Opening Day.  In Cabrera's defense, he is a professional hitter, and provides more pop than Mets fans originally anticipated.  He's also been one of the Mets more clutch hitters since his arrival.  Alas he went hit-less in four at-bats.  Todd Frazier took his turn cleaning-up on Saturday, and went 1 for 3 with three RBI.

Batting Sixth:

What, me worry?  In the span of two games, Adrian Gonzalez is turning a worrisome spring training into a distant memory.  Hampered last season by a bad back while with the Los Angeles Dodgers, Gonzalez went 12 for 58 (.207) in Grapefruit play, with just three extra base hits and three RBI.  So far, he is 3 for 7 with two walks, a double, a run scored, and an RBI, through two games against the Cardinals.

Catcher:

We knew there would also be a platoon behind the plate this season, but thank Mickey Callaway for giving this a new spin.  It was very interesting seeing Travis d'Arnaud bat fifth.  He went 1 for 3 on Saturday, with a walk and home run.  Syndergaard prefers throwing to Kevin Plawecki.  That's no secret.  And so Plawecki started Opening Day and batted seventh, going 2 for 3 with two walks, two runs scored, and an RBI.  So far, the platooning backstops are 3 for 6, with three walks, a home run, three runs scored, and two RBI.

Batting Eighth/Ninth:

Coach Callaway has elected to bat the pitcher eighth in each of the first two games.  Let's see how long this continues.  Otherwise, the free swinging Amed Rosario is being positioned to precede the lead-off hitter and Yoenis Cespedes by batting ninth.  Until Rosario learns to be more selective at the plate, this may prove an effective ploy ... for now.  Amed went 2 for 4 in his first ever major league Opening Day, with two RBI and two runs scored.

Terrors on the Base Paths:

Mickey Callaway and third base coach Glenn Sherlock have made one thing perfectly clear.  They intend on being aggressive.  They'll attempt taking an extra base at every turn, challenge outfield arms and their opponent's ability to execute plays.

First Pitch:

The Mets top two starting pitchers seemingly launched their 2018 campaigns without a hitch.  If you look back, the most successful teams throughout history usually feature a terrible twosome that opponents dread facing.  Noah Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom must be that for the Mets more so now than ever.  Noah started on Opening Day, allowing four earned runs on six hits, but walked none and fanned ten batters over six innings pitched for his first victory of the season.  Jacob deGrom lasted 5.2 innings in his first start, limiting the Cardinals to just one earned run on four hits and a walk, while fanning seven for his first victory.

The Firemen:

The Mets opened up on Thursday, were off on Friday, then resumed play on Saturday.  Despite a day off Callaway's utilization of the bullpen was no less curious.  The same trio which appeared on Thursday were the same three which appeared in Saturday's contest.  Coach's plan for Sunday's series finale will prove quite revealing.  Robert Gsellman seems to be embracing his new bullpen role, allowing just one hit and fanning four in 1.2 innings.  Anthony Swarzak pitched the eighth in each game, while Jeurys Familia closed out both, and earned his first save (of the four out variety).

N.Y. Mets: Grand Opening

From the desk of:  HEAD-BUTTING MR. MET

OPENING DAY

Cardinals   4

Mets          9

FINAL

So many variables factored into making this Opening Day one of the most anticipated events in recent Mets history.  And I'm happy to say, Callaway and Co. did not disappoint, as relaunch of Sandy Alderson's new order went off without a hitch.

They couldn't have scripted things any better.  Noah Syndergaard pitched six strong innings; the bullpen closed things out with three scoreless innings of no-hit relief; the line-up manufactured twelve hits and nine runs; and the defense played error free.

Thor's first outing of the season went well enough.  Efficiency wise, Syndergaard averaged fourteen pitches per inning, and threw 85 pitches overall with 59 (68%) going for strikes.  He allowed six hits, and surrendered a pair of home runs - one to Yadier Molina that careened off the left field foul pole.  Otherwise, he walked none and fanned ten batters en rout to his first victory of the season.

A rather gamely Robert Gsellman struck out the side in the seventh.  Free agent acquisition Anthony Swarzack struck out one during a scoreless eighth.  Jeurys Familia then closed out the game in a non-save situation.

Mickey Callaway's First Line-Up:

• CF - Nimmo
• LF- Cespedes
• RF- Bruce
• 2B - Cabrera
• 3B - Frazier
• 1B  Gonzalez
• C - Plawecki
• SP - Syndergaard
• SS - Rosario

I'd only question Cabrera batting clean-up, otherwise this order suits me just fine.  If Mickey Callaway insists on batting Cespedes second, then of course something has to give elsewhere in the line-up.  That said, Amed Rosario (making his first ever Opening Day start with the Mets) handed in a stellar performance as the free swinger went 2 for 4 at the plate, with an RBI.  But by batting him ninth Callaway might have realized a desired affect.  Amed scored two runs, driven in each time by Yoenis Cespedes whom went 2 for 5 with three RBI.  

Cespedes, Jay Bruce, Todd Frazier, and Adrian Gonzalez, joined to go 6 for 15 (.400), with two runs scored and five RBI.

Kevin Plawecki is apparently picking up where he left off last season, making his mark against right-handed pitching by going 2 for 3 with a walk, a run scored, and an RBI.

I've spent all spring raving about Brandon Nimmo, if not longer.  He's such a throwback and self-made talent that I just can't help but root for him.  I do indeed believe he could potentially solve the Mets need for a lead-off hitter.  Unfortunately regular playing time will be hard to come by once Michael Conforto returns to the line-up.  Thursday's performance (2 for 3, with a walk and a run scored) was nevertheless a glimpse into how effective I believe Nimmo could some day be batting atop the order. 

The Mets are now 37-20 (.649) on Opening Day.

N.Y. Mets: Spring Training Podcast

Here's our latest podcast at 

RisingApple.com

Rising Apple Report: 

Mets Spring Training Special

STUFF

David Wright ... Terry Collins

5th Starter Spot ... Las Vegas 51s

Neil Walker ... Curtis Granderson

Problems Behind the Plate,

and other stuff.

N.Y. Mets: The Future Starting Rotation is Now

From the desk of:  HEAD-BUTTING MR. MET

The Truck o' Stuff has Arrived

Pitchers and Catchers are in the building.

The rest of the position players report Feb. 18

THE FOUR FIVE HURLERS of the METROPOLIS

Thor    deGrominator    Dark Knight    Super Matz    and Zack Wheeler?

Entering Spring Training, manager Terry Collins let it be known there will be an open competition for the fifth rotation spot between Zack Wheeler, Seth Lugo, and Robert Gsellman.

Both Gsellman, 23, and Lugo, 27, made their major league debut last season, and in the pressures of a pennant race performed very well.

Gsellman made eight appearances and seven starts, in which he went 4-2 with a 2.42 ERA, and a 1.276 WHiP with 42 strikeouts through 44.2 innings pitched.  Lugo made 18 appearances and eight starts, in which he posted a 5-2 record with a 2.67 ERA and 1.094 WHiP through 64 innings pitched, with 45 strikeouts.

It's been a long road back for Zack Wheeler, who will turn 28-years old in May.  He is arguably the incumbent heading into Spring Training to win the fifth spot.  But he last threw a major league pitch on Sept. 25, 2014 at Washington in a losing effort against the Nationals.  He has missed all of the last two seasons, save for facing four batters last year while rehabbing with Port St. Lucie.  He'll surely be on a pitch count this season, and will likely be shifting into the bullpen at some point anyway (despite preliminary protestations).

That in turn will leave the door wide open for either Gsellman and/or Lugo to step in.  Overall, this is a good problem for Terry Collins to have.

The same can't be said of TC's number four starter.  There is no doubting Steven Matz' physical ability, but questions abound where it concerns his durability.  Matz has yet to prove he can stay healthy.  Otherwise, Steven is a dynamite kid who has proven he belongs in the bigs.  The upcoming 2017 season will serve as a test, then, to see whether he can withstand the rigors of a long major league season.  Until then, Matz likewise provides Gsellman and Lugo yet another reason to stay sharp and prepare for duty on a moment's notice.

Then there's Matt Harvey ... the Darkened Knight.  His 2016 season literally fizzled out like a bottle rocket on the 4th of July.  And of course, he missed all of 2014 recovering from Tommy John surgery. It is reasonable to believe this man will be fueled by frustration.  Whatever his motivation, this much is certain: Matt Harvey still has much to prove, and his super agent Scott Boras knows it.  He is indeed a supreme talent, but the Dark Knight is now the measure of himself.  That being said, I hope Terry Collins learned his lesson as far as sticking to his guns when it comes to dealing with Harvey.

Jacob deGrom, who turns 29-years old in June, pitched 43 less innings in 2016 than during the 2015 season.  His ERA, WHiP, and rate of strikeouts were all down, while his rate of hits allowed and walks were up from the previous season.  Sure enough, deGrom succumbed to forearm and elbow discomfort in September and would undergo surgery to re-position the ulnar nerve.  Earlier this month, he said his elbow was pain free.

Noah Syndergaard's off-season weight-gain regimen seems all the rage.  The Mets Nordic ace gained roughly fifteen pounds in an effort to get stronger and increase his late season durability.  Thor claims he accomplished this while applying equal attention to a pitcher's need for flexibility.  Already in possession of a 100 mph fastball, he stated his desire to throw even harder.

From Marc Simon, ESPN

• The Mets have never had five pitchers make thirty starts in the same season.  They've had four pitchers make thirty starts on six occasions: 1976, 1986, 1989, 1990, 2000, 2003.

Brooklyn Cyclones: Opening Day In Coney Island

From the desk of:   THE SURF AVENUE SLUGGERS

OPENING DAY

 

 

Staten Island Yankees

vs.

BROOKLYN CYCLONES

FROM

MCU Park at Steeplechase Grounds

Coney Island, Brooklyn

2013 Battle Of The Boroughs

Staten Island Leads Series 1-0

I - S.I. 2; BKN 1

II - TONIGHT


GAME CALLED DUE TO RAIN

 

BROOKLYN CYCLONES - Baseball By The Boardwalk Enters Its Thirteenth Season.  Summertime In The Borough Starts Now!

Coney Island Salt Water Taffy is da best - Oh!  But salt water on grass fields?  Fuhgeddaboudit!  And so, after the damage caused by Hurricane Sandy, the Brooklyn Cyclones General Manager decided MCU would convert to a synthetic field.  The new surface will ease fears and limit potential future storm damage, while increasing the events MCU Park can host without fretting over the wear and tear of grass.


Battered, but not beaten, like much of the impacted coastal areas of Brooklyn, Staten Island and Queens, New Yorkers are a resilient bunch.  With them, MCU Park is another treasured home in our neighborhood, and its players, neighbors on our block.  To the newest members of the Cyclones, I welcome you to Brooklyn - welcome home to Coney Island.


On their new turf, the new Kids of Summer will open their thirteenth season by the seashore this evening against their chief rival Staten Island Yankees.  Last night, the teams played in the Baby Bombers home opener before a capacity crowd, with the Yankees outlasting the Cyclones by a 2-1 final score.


Robert Gsellman made the start for Brooklyn, opposed by Staten Island's Giovanny Gallegos.  Gsellman pitched five innings, allowed two runs on five hits, but none earned.  He issued one walk and struck out four in suffering his first loss of the season.  At the plate, L.J. Mazzilli had two hits in his professional debut.  Right fielder James Roche drove in Brooklyn's only run with his first home run of the season.


As of post time, the skies above Southern Brooklyn were looking kind of ominous.  Hopefully there will be baseball in Coney Island tonight.



Mike.BTB