Meet the Epps, Meet the Epps

From the desk: HEAD-BUTTING MR. MET 

Step Right Up and Greet the Epps ...

Back in November 2021, a newly hired general manager named Billy Eppler inherited a high-level core of players.  That group featured Jacob deGrom - who only very recently returned to action - Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo, Jeff McNeil, and Edwin Diaz.

Shortly after moving into his new office, Eppler selected two outfielders from the free agent market called Starling Marte and Mark Canha, then, on Dec. 1, signed pitcher Max Scherzer (at Steve Cohen's behest).  Not yet done, Eppler signed free agent infielder Eduardo Escobar, reliever Adam Ottavino, and acquired starting pitcher Chris Bassitt from the Oakland A's.

Mets fans looked around and said this was good.

By May, as expected, the Mets finally parted ways with Robinson Cano - a move that would have mentally and financially crippled the previous regime.  This front office deemed Cano's DFA necessary and did indeed improve the team via the old adage, addition by subtraction.  It's also safe to say the previous owners would not have been copacetic with all of Billy Eppler's off-season acquisitions, much less agreeing to Max Scherzer's present annual value.

I digress ...

Over the last few years, JD Davis and Dom Smith were afforded a fair chance at earning their keep, respectively.  Mission unfulfilled as the former was dealt away at the trade deadline, and the latter remains on the 40-man roster at Syracuse.  In turn, Billy Eppler acquired lefty-hitting Daniel Vogelbach, lefty-hitting outfielder Tyler Naquin, and right-swinging Darin Ruf to reinforce the bench and lineup.

All the acquired players by Billy Eppler mentioned above, be it in the offseason or at the deadline, have a game, a hit, or a standout moment this season that we can point to and deem unequivocally as essential contributions toward the team's success.

I'd be remiss if I didn't extend well-deserved props to Carlos Carrasco, Taijuan Walker, Trevor Williams, David Peterson, Luis Guillorme, and others.

Let us not forget minor league call-up, Brett Baty.  He homered during his major league debut against the Atlanta Braves.  Left-hander Nate Fisher, a former banker from the Seattle Mariners system, allowed just one hit in three innings of relief in his major league debut against the Phillies this past Sunday.  The point here is it takes a 40-man roster to win championships.  We must also remember how Eppler did not recklessly empty the farm system of its top prospects at the deadline.

The Mets are 21-9 since the All-Star break.  They own a 43-19 record against their N.L. East division rivals and enter Tuesday's action with a four-game lead over the second-place Braves.  Their overall record (79-44) is second best in all of baseball behind the Dodgers.  Except for Apr. 11, the Mets have spent every day this season in first place. 

Billy Eppler has no doubt impacted this team.  However, we still need to buckle up because the real fun has yet to begin.  The month of September is a mere ten days away.  That's when Eppler's most crucial off-season acquisition comes into play.  There are few if none, more qualified managers in baseball to lead the Mets through a pennant race than Buck Showalter.

Let's Go Epps!

There's Great Joy in Metsville

From the desk: HEAD-BUTTING MR. MET

Back in the Summer of '22 ...

The Mets continue taking bites out of the dog days of summer.  They survived the seasonal June swoon with a 13-10 record, followed by a strong 17-8 month of July.  So far, they're off to a 7-2 start in August.

Except for eleven games, the Mets in 2021 spent nearly all of their first 110 games in first place.  They teetered for another week in and out of first.  But, by August 14, they were getting swept by the Dodgers and would never climb back atop the N.L.  East standings again.  

As we know, the division-winning Atlanta Braves defeated the Houston Astros to become baseball's world champions.  It was a disappointing season in Flushing, to say the least.

Welcome to 2022 ...

Through the first 110 games of this season, the Mets have occupied first place for all but one day back on April 11, when they fell a half-game back of the Phillies.  They've remained in first place ever since.  By June 1, the Mets had built a 10.5 game division lead.  But, as expected, the Braves awoke from their slumber.  Atlanta posted a 23-27 record in their first 50 games through May, then in June, caught fire with a 21-6 record to pull within three games of the Mets.  They continued with an 18-8 record in July but gained no ground in the standings.  

On Tuesday, August 2, the Braves defeated the Phillies to pull within 2.5 games of first.  A year ago today, the Mets were traveling home from Philadelphia, where they initially ceded first place upon getting swept by the Phillies.

With a 3.5 game lead this past Thursday, the Mets hosted the Braves for the opening game of a mid-summer-defining five-game series at Citi Field.  Carlos Carrasco won his twelfth game, and Edwin Diaz registered six outs to earn his 24th save.  The Braves evened the series with a win in game two.  But the Mets answered with a doubleheader sweep on Saturday and wrapped up their fourth win in five games on Sunday.

Highlighting the series was the unveiling of Flushing's dynamic one-two punch, Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom, who, before his August 2 start at Washington, last climbed a major league mound on July 7 of last year.  Through two starts, deGrom has allowed three runs on four hits and one walk with 18 strikeouts through 10.2 innings.  On Monday, he struck out twelve Braves in a triumphant return to Citi Field.  Max Scherzer pitched the second game of Saturday's doubleheader, allowing no runs on four hits and no walks with eleven strikeouts for his eighth win against two losses with a 1.98 ERA.

I'd be remiss if I didn't laud the entire staff, a deep quality staff.  The foursome of Chris Bassitt, Carlos Carrasco, Taijuan Walker, and David Peterson have joined together for a 36-16 combined record with a 3.43 ERA in 440 innings pitched.

Meanwhile, closer Edwin Diaz continues having a season for the ages.  He has yielded only 27 hits in 45.1 innings with an eye-popping 91 strikeouts for a 5.4 H/9 and 18.1 K/9 average, respectively.  Said another way, he has struck out 52.9% of all batters faced, which is reflective of his 0.860 WHiP, to go along with a stellar 1.39 ERA.

Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor have been the clear leaders at the plate.  Alonso tops the National League with 96 RBI, and Lindor is third.  Brandon Nimmo has carved his niche as a premiere leadoff hitter, and Jeff McNeil has consistently maintained a .300 batting average.

In his first season, Billy Eppler's off-season acquisitions have been essential cogs in this machine we call the Mets.  The performances of Chris Bassitt and Starling Marte have been exemplary.  Eduardo Escobar and Mark Canha have been nothing short of serviceable and, in Escobar's case, clutch.  And while Eppler's trade deadline acquisitions were met with some criticism, extensive renovations were not needed.  What Eppler did with the acquisitions of Daniel Vogelbach, Darin Ruf, and Tyler Naquin was fix a leaky roof and replace the windows.  Now the lineup at Flushing by the Bay is water-tight.  As planned, they're all contributing to the Mets' fine play in August.

Above all else, I believe Buck Showalter plays a significant role in the Mets' success.  His attention to detail and insistence on fundamentals is the team's bedrock.  He's genuinely bucking analytical trends and transforming his team into savvy players.  Buck's experience is vast, and his baseball intuition uncanny.  Just the other day, they executed a suicide squeeze.  Baseball is back, indeed.  Buck Showalter corrects the years of novice managers and their inexperienced folly.

The Mets enter Wednesday night's game against the Reds with a 71-39 (.645) record.  They've won four in a row.  Moreover, they're winning at a historic pace for this franchise.  

Last season, the Mets and Braves did not face each other in August, which proved a disadvantage for the Mets.  This season, the schedule makers had something else in mind, and the Mets seized the moment.  Their division lead over the Braves is now back up to seven.  

It's been an incredibly entertaining summer.  For better or worse, we'll be talking about this season for years to come as a relaunch of the New York Mets under the ownership of Steve Cohen.

In the meantime, the battle for the N.L. East flag rages on ...

Let's Go Mets!

The Metsian Podcast: Summertime at Flushing By The Bay Begins

From the desk: HEAD-BUTTING MR. MET

@THEMetsianPod

The deeper we get into this 2022 season, the more the Mets distinguish themselves as one of baseball's top contenders.  Team depth and resiliency have kept them atop the division and continue pushing this team forward; injuries be damned.  Please join Sam, Rich, and me as we convene to discuss everything going right in Flushing, along with other Mets minutiae.

sixty-nine minutes 

THE METSIAN PODCAST: California Dreaming with Anthony Rivera of Subway to Shea

From the desk: HEAD-BUTTING MR. MET

GUEST

ANTHONY RIVERA

SUBWAY TO SHEA PODCAST

#LGM

The Metsian Podcast: Rocky Mountain High

From the desk: HEAD-BUTTING MR. MET

@THE_SamMaxwell     @MetFanRich     @BTB_MikeII

@THEMetsianPod

#LGM

The Metsian Podcast "Rat in the Grass" Episode

From the desk: HEAD-BUTTING MR. MET

@THE_SamMaxwell     @MetFanRich     @BTB_MikeII

@THEMetsianPod

 

It's been said before but bears repeating.  The first-place Mets lead the National League in wins and still have yet to lose a series this season.  They're getting it done with solid pitching, fielding, and timely hitting.  However, we've seen this before.  The season is about a fifth of the way through.  So, let us pause and ask what differentiates this team from last year's Mets, who, on Aug. 14, 2021, dropped in the standings behind the Phillies and Braves and never recovered.  Please join Sam, Rich, and I, as we recap the week and chase down the "rat in the grass" on another getaway day edition of The Metsian Podcast.

seventy-three minutes

The Metsian Podcast: The Getaway Day Flushing Review with Jon Springer

From the desk: HEAD-BUTTING MR. MET

GUEST

METS BY THE NUMBERS.net

Jon Springer

May the Fourth Be With You.  Despite Wednesday's sixth inning implosion, The Force remains strong in Queens.  Let's not lose sight of the Mets battling the defending World Champions and coming away with a split and that they are still yet to lose a series this season.  That's partly due to some remarkable pitching from Tylor Megill and a bullpen that combined to pitch a no-hitter against the rival Phillies.  The front office is performing with conviction as well as they bid adieu to Robinson Cano.  Times are indeed changing at Flushing by the Bay.  Please join Rich, featured guest Jon Springer, and me for a getaway day episode of The Metsian Podcast.

 

#LGM

N.Y. Mets Pitchers Toss Combined No-Hitter in Shutout Victory Over Rival Phillies

From the desk: HEAD-BUTTING MR. MET

COMBINED NO-HITTER

Edwin Diaz Finishes What Tylor Megill Started; Mets Pitching, Fielding, and Timely Hitting Rule the Day

Remember Tylor Megill's last-minute season-opening start at Washington?  That was a dandy.  He has been nothing short of stellar ever since.  Friday's game marks the third time in five starts he has yielded three hits or less in at least five innings pitched.  Tylor has now limited the opposition to 18 hits and six walks over his first 28 innings pitched for a 0.857 WHiP, with 27 strikeouts and a fine 1.93 ERA.

The game remained scoreless through the fourth inning.  Afterwhich, the Mets finally provided Megill with some support.  Jeff McNeil drove home two runs in the fifth, and Pete Alonso hit a solo home run in the sixth for a 3-0 Mets lead and the final margin of victory.  

After Drew Smith struck out J.T. Realmuto to start the seventh.  Enter Joely Rodriguez, who promptly walked Kyle Schwarber, who was himself erased when the Mets infield came to Joely's rescue and converted a 6-4-3 double-play.

Otherwise, Drew Smith, Joely Rodriguez, and Seth Lugo kept Philadelphia hitless through the eighth.

Edwin Diaz took his turn in the ninth and struck out the side, all swinging, preserving the shutout and the combined no-hitter - only the second no-hitter in Mets history, both at Citi Field.

That's how you finish!

And what better opponent than the Mets' closest division rival - the Philadelphia Phillies ...

The Metsian Podcast: Mourning the Passing of Flushing's 2021 Playoff Aspirations

From the desk: HEAD-BUTTING MR. MET

@THE_SamMaxwell   @MetFanRich   BTB_MikeII

Look out!  That piano falling out of the sky has a New York Mets logo on it.  Sunday's series finale against the Brewers was akin to something out of Looney Toons.  If only they were as enjoyable to watch.  Swept by the Cardinals, two losses against the Phillies, swept at Boston, and again at Milwaukee, the free fall continues.  The season's final homestand opens on Tuesday against the always troublesome Miami Marlins, then it's off to Atlanta to close out the schedule against the Braves.  Alas, their remaining games retain little matter in the standings.  Please join Sam, Rich, and I as The Metsian Podcast regrettably mourns the passing of Flushing's 2021 playoff hopes and aspirations.

ninety-five minutes

What Went Wrong And When...?

Marcus Stroman ~ Michael Conforto ~ Javier Baez

Jeff McNeil ~ Taijuan Walker ~ Edwin Diaz ~ Noah Syndergaard

The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim ~ The New York Mets of Queens

Third Base ... I Don't Know

and so much more!

#LGM

Stumbling Into The September Stretch on Another Metsian Podacst

From the desk: HEAD-BUTTING MR. MET

@THE_SamMaxwell  @MetFanRich  @BTB_MikeII

@THEMetsianPod

The week that was versus Miami and Washington, and the weeks to come in Flushing.

#LGM

The Metsian Podcast: The Second Half Begins With Metstradamus, John Coppinger

From the desk: HEAD-BUTTING MR. MET

ROAD TRIP REVIEW:

PITTSBURGH & CINCINNATI

GUEST

METSTRADAMUS

JOHN COPPINGER

eighty-three minutes

 

#LGM

The Metsian Podcast First Half Review

From the desk: HEAD-BUTTING MR. MET

@THE_SamMaxwell       @MetFanRich       @BTB_MikeII

113 minutes

FIRST HALF REVIEW

#LGM

The Metsian Podcast: The Dog Days Of June(?) with the Kranepool Society, Stephen Keane

From the desk: HEAD-BUTTING MR. MET

38-31 (.551), First Place

It's officially summertime!  Independence Day is ten days away, and the Mets, against all odds, still hold a four-game division lead over the Washington Nationals.  While it can be said the Mets are still feeding off their seven-game and five-game winning streaks back in May, they've nonetheless scratched and clawed to stay above par in June.  But how much longer can this last?  Joining The Metsian Podcast to help answer that question (and talk some 1979 Mets) is the one and only governor of the Kranepool Society ...

Stephen Keane

seventy-four minutes

 

THE METSIAN PODFEST: featuring Subway To Shea Podcast & MetsMusings Podcast

From the desk: HEAD-BUTTING MR. MET

This week The Metsian Podcast welcomes Anthony Rivera, proprietor of the Subway To Shea Podcast, to the show.  On the docket: a seven-game win streak, injuries, stock up/stock down, RatCoon, The Dark Knight returns, and a Mets 1977 regular season rewind assist from Gary Mac of MetsMusings Podcast.

 

eighty-two minutes

Calling all fans!  Be on the lookout for players involved with elevating the Mets into first place.  Several of the conspirators are known members of the notorious Bench Mob.  The rest of the team is armed with effective pitching and an increasingly dangerous lineup.  They are reported to have come away with series victories against the Diamondbacks and Orioles at Citi Field and are now thought to be in transit towards the Tampa/St. Pete area disguised in surfer shorts, sandals, sunglasses, and sunscreen.

#LGM 

N.Y. Mets: Command and Control, the Comeback, and The Closer

From the desk: HEAD-BUTTING MR. MET

After Friday Blizzard Mets Split 

Saturday Twin Bill at Coors Field

Teammates Rally Together in Support of Jacob deGrom's Near Record Effort

Making his third start of this young season, Jacob deGrom puts forth something more than just another dominating effort.  In facing 23 Colorado batters, he hurls 99 pitches with 67.6% going for strikes.  His line reads three unearned runs on three hits and just one walk with 14 strikeouts through six innings pitched.  It marks his second straight start with 14 strikeouts.  But this performance against the Rockies is so much more special than that.  

Jacob registers his first strikeout to end the first, then fans the side in the second.  He again strikes out the side in the third and yet again in the fourth, giving him nine consecutive strikeouts, eight of which are of the swing-and-miss variety.  Jacob now lay within one strikeout of matching Tom Seaver's 51-year old year record of ten consecutive strikeouts set on April 22, 1970, against the San Diego Padres.  

But Colorado third baseman Josh Fuentes has other ideas when he grounds to second leading off the fifth and reaches safely on Jeff McNeil's errant throw to first.  And wouldn't you know, Jacob strikes out the next batter he faces.  Afterwhich, trouble comes knocking at the door.  Catcher Dom Nunez triples off the right-field wall scoring Fuentes, and pinch-hitter Yonathan Daza's sacrifice fly to right field scores, Nunez.  Left fielder Raimel Tapia then homers, giving the Rockies a 3-1 lead.  Jacob finally fans second baseman Ryan McMahon to retire the side.

Pete Alonso who back in the third inning drove home Jacob deGrom with the game's first run, homers leading off the top of the sixth, cutting the Mets deficit to one.  Jacob deGrom, in his final inning of work, retires the Rockies in order with two more strikeouts.  In the top half of the seventh, runs batted in by Jonathan Villar and Francisco Lindor put Jacob deGrom back on the winning side of the game.

Edwin Diaz then slams the door shut on the Colorado Rockies, needing just 13 pitches to strike out the side, all swinging.  While earning his first save of the season, Diaz likewise locks down deGrom's first victory in three tries.  The deGrominator evens his record at 1-1 with a glistening 0.45 ERA through 20 innings pitched to date.

The results of game two at Coors Field on Saturday do not escape me.  The fact they were a mere 2 for 23 at the plate with just two walks and six strikeouts albeit against a representative German Marquez is more than I care to know.  Otherwise, Joey Lucchesi's second appearance and first start for the Mets proved troublesome as did that of reliever Jacob Barnes.  The Rockies struck for three runs in the first inning and the rest is, as they say, 

... you know, Metsian.

N.Y. Mets: On the Bullpen's Three Game Trend

From the desk: HEAD-BUTTING MR. MET

TRUCKING UP I-95 ON THE LAST LEG HOME

OPENING DAY

Marlins

vs.

Mets

FROM

ROOSEVELT AVENUE GROUNDS

Flushing, Queens

Edwin Diaz Coming to a Ballpark Near You

If you follow me, you're familiar with one of my rules of thumb: once is an event, twice is a coincidence, and three times is a trend.  

Insofar as trending, there is the micro and the macro.  For the moment, we have a three-game series at Philadelphia to speak of.  By mid-April, we will have three series to compare and contrast.  

The point being, I apply equal importance to early-season games as I would to any in June or September.  I believe in getting off to good starts with the idea that you cannot win pennants in April, but you can certainly lose them.

Therefore, with great angst, I say the Mets will go as far as their bullpen carries them.  I'm not breaking new ground here.  That is just the modern condition of baseball.  

In the first three games alone, the Mets relievers relinquished a lead, upheld a lead in game two, then played a rather inconsequential role in Wednesday afternoon's loss against the Phillies.

Manager Luis Rojas called upon three relievers in each of the first three games.  In games one and two,  Miguel Castro and Trevor May were joined by Aaron Loup and Jeurys Familia.  On Wednesday, Jacob Barnes, Dellin Betances, and Joey Lucchesi each made their season debut. 

Overall, the bullpen has accounted for 36% of the Mets 25 total innings pitched.  Seven different relievers have joined together to throw 194 pitches, with 118 (60.8%) going for strikes.  They've yielded six earned runs on 13 hits and three walks through nine innings for a 6.00 ERA and 1.77 WHiP with eleven strikeouts.  Still slated to be a starter, Joey Lucchesi distinguished himself by allowing one lone hit with three strikeouts through two innings pitched. 

Despite David Peterson lasting just four innings Wednesday against the Phillies, the Mets' first three starters, in turn, accounted for 64% of all innings pitched.  By midsummer, I expect the starting rotation to account for at least 68% of innings pitched.  In the meantime, Peterson's abbreviated start raised the bullpen's average usage up to three innings per game.

On Thursday, the Mets host the Miami Marlins for Opening Day at Citi Field.  Edwin Diaz is likely to make his season debut at home, assuming the Mets own a late-inning lead.  Lest we forget, last year the Marlins qualified for the post-season, and the Mets did not.  

Robert Gsellman is also yet to make his first appearance.

I eagerly await to see the next trios of relievers Luis Rojas deploys against the Marlins because that's how he's trending. 

A Metsian Podcast: Grapefruit League Recaps & 1974 Retrospective with FAFIF's Greg Prince

From the desk: HEAD-BUTTING MR. MET

GUEST

FAITH AND FEAR IN FLUSHING

GREG PRINCE

115 minutes

Edwin Diaz ~ Brandon Nimmo ~ Dellin Betances ~ Sean Reid-Foley ~ Pete Alonso

? Albert Almora Jr. ? Scott Hairston ? Marlon Byrd ? Eric Young Jr. ? Kevin Pillar ?

Fred Wilpon at Spring Training ~ the 1974 New York Mets

and so much more!

#LGM

N.Y. Mets: Will The Real Edwin Diaz Please Step Up

From the desk: HEAD-BUTTING MR. MET

What do David Cone and Edwin Diaz 

Have in Common?

Oh! What Edwin Diaz Can Mean To A Pennant Run ...

Edwin Diaz's relatively effective 2020 performance for many Mets fans did little to bury the memories of his rather disastrous 2019 campaign.  But if indeed you safely tucked them away in the recesses of your Metsian mind, then allow me to resurrect them.  

Despite an impressive 15.4% K/9 average and a 39.0% strikeout rate versus batters faced, Edwin yielded 58 hits in 58 innings pitched, of which 25.8% went for home runs.  Moreover, those home runs were coming with men on base.  He averaged a 3.9 W/9 average, a career-high .258 average against, and a career-low 76.2% LOB, all of which translated into an inflated 5.59 ERA; 1.379 WHiP; 3.77 BABIP; 4.51 FIP.  He saved 26 (78.8%) of 33 opportunities, blowing seven with seven losses.

Last season's performance was clearly an improvement, to say the least.  However, we must keep things within the context of a pandemic compromised season.  Diaz saved six of ten opportunities with just one loss.  In only 26 appearances and 25.2 innings pitched, Edwin posted career-highs with a 17.9 K/9 average and 45.5% strikeout rate versus batters faced.  He, more importantly, posted a considerably lower 6.3 H/9 average and yielded just two home runs (which over a full season projects very favorably).  Meanwhile, his average against dipped over 70 points to .181 while his LOB improved to a career-high 89.7% - a 13.5% improvement over the previous season - all of which translated into an obviously improved and quite stellar 1.75 ERA.  But whereas his 2.81 FIP is a clear improvement, his .388 BABIP was not nor his career-high 4.9 W/9 average, which directly inflated his 1.247 WHiP.

Two very different seasons; two very different outcomes, which begs the question, which version can the 2021 Mets expect.  There's always sequencing, in which a bad season precedes the good.  That speaks of improvement.  Had the bad followed the good, we'd be discussing a setback - a rather major setback at that.  

Insofar as repertoire, Diaz is strictly fastball/slider and has demonstrated consistency in velocity and application throughout his five seasons.  On average, he throws a 97.4mph fastball at a rate of 65.5 %, while throwing on average an 88.6mph slider with a 34.3% rate of frequency.

Perhaps attributable to physical maturity, last season as a 26-year old, Edwin's 97.8mph fastball and 89.6mph slider represented career-highs.  But he also demonstrated adaptability.  A change in applied craftsmanship saw him throw his fastball a career-low 61.5% - exactly four points below his career average.  Not coincidentally, his slider increased to a career-high 37.9% rate of frequency - exactly four points over the previous season.  

How did that work out?

In 2019, Diaz's offerings resulted in a 43.4% Pull Rate - see home runs, right?  Last year that number dropped to a career-low 31.1% Pull Rate.  However, opposing batters last season went the opposite way against Diaz, a career-high rate of 40.9% versus 27.1% from two years ago.  Said another way, batters generally appeared late and behind Edwin's stuff.  I believe his career-low 25% Hard Hit metric supports this.  I also believe it is the net result of better executing his slider, more so than any gained velocity on his fastball.  I harken back to David Cone's days with the Mets.  Many times over, again and again, his sidearm and three-quarter delivery, like Diaz, would render many well-intentioned sliders into frisbees with Smash Me written all over it.  

If last year is an indication, maybe Diaz and pitching coach Jeremy Hefner actually have this under control.  Or, so we hope.  Otherwise, there's no further need in trumpeting the importance of a shutdown closer to any pennant run and beyond.  For better or worse, I think Mets fans understand that all too well.

Does all this explain his turnaround?  I don't know.  Last season provided a small sample size, nothing more, nothing less.  His naysayers are still well represented at the discussion table.  But like all players, the test will be returning to a full season.  There is a lot of ability in that 27-year old right arm, and composure has never been an issue.  He's only now entering his prime.  I'm therefore looking forward to a more experienced pitcher hopefully demonstrating continuous improvement and elevated craftsmanship.   

• Diaz: Fangraphs
• Diaz: Baseball-Reference

N.Y. Mets: Hoping Trevor May Brings Stability to Bullpen Uncertainty

From the desk: HEAD-BUTTING MR. MET

PITCHERS & CATCHERS

⚾

THE BULLPEN

• Pitchers & Catchers: deGrominator Rising
• Pitchers & Catchers: Pressure on Marcus Stroman to Form One-Two Punch
• Pitchers & Catchers: Difference Between Good And Great Could Be Carlos Carrasco
• Pitchers & Catchers: Can David Peterson Pick Up Where He Left Off?
  
• A Metsian Podcast: Reporting to Camp with Baseball Writer & Analyst Ernest Dove

Trevor May Entering Strange New World

Considering the recent injury to Seth Lugo, newly acquired Trevor May might already be the Mets best reliever for all intent and purpose without even having thrown a pitch.  That speaks to how badly the rest of this bullpen riddles me with anxiety.

There are the returnees: Jeurys Familia, Dellin Betances, Robert Gsellman, Miguel Castro, the injured Seth Lugo, and perhaps Jerry Blevins.  There's the main free-agent addition Aaron Loup, and a clutch of potentials, prospects, minor signees, and spring invitees such as Mike Montgomery, Tommy Hunter,  Thomas Szapucki, the familiar Drew Smith, Jacob Barnes, and Sam McWilliams, to name a few. 

For a split second, Familia and Betances were being shopped around in what was being rumored as a salary dump.  But when other key free-agent relievers signed elsewhere, the undynamic duo again suddenly became indispensable.  

Betances last season struggled with a 7.71 ERA, a career-high .353 BABIP, and a WHiP over two in 15 appearances while yielding an untenable ten runs on twelve hits and twelve walks in only 11.2 innings pitched.  His velocity has plummeted from a career-high 98.4mph in 2017 to 94.9mph last season, a loss of 3.5mph in three years.  Meanwhile, Jeurys Familia, whose velocity remains constant at 97.0mph, simply walks too many batters, reflected by last year's 6.4 W/9 average, a bloated 1.463 WHiP, and career-high (full-season) 4.92 FIP.  However, he still somehow posted a representative .204 average against and .247 BABIP.

Robert Gsellman remains a likable member of the bullpen.  But truth be told, since his rookie season, he has been nothing short of ineffective.  You can look it up.  As for Edwin Diaz, he'll get his own narrative coming shortly.

In the meantime, the burden inevitably being placed upon all the aforementioned relievers' shoulders originates with the starting rotation.  Over the course of their respective careers, Jacob deGrom averages 6.1 innings per start, and Marcus Stroman averages an even six innings.  Carlos Carrasco and Taijuan Walkers are next in, averaging 5.2 innings per start.  Further down the depth chart, David Peterson and Joey Lucchesi average 5.1 innings, while Jordan Yamamoto clocks in at five innings flat.  That means, on average, the Mets bullpen will be responsible for 3.2 innings per game, or, said another way, eleven outs ... again, on average.

All the concerns listed herein are precisely why Trevor May's upcoming role in Queens is destined to be far different, or should I say more treacherous, from the one he grew accustomed to at Minneapolis.  Last season he was placed in just three save situations, and over the last three seasons has only faced ten save situations (successfully converting seven).  If recent Flushing history is any indication, the 31-year old right-hander will be afforded numerous more opportunities despite whether or not Edwin Diaz fulfills his primary role as closer.  Two seasons ago, Mets relievers were placed into 65 save situations; Edwin Diaz converted 26 of 33 opportunities while the remaining bullpen saved twelve games in near-equal 32 opportunities.  During last year's abbreviated season, the bullpen was faced with 18 save situations.  Diaz converted six of ten opportunities, and the rest saved five of eight chances. 

KNOW TREVOR MAY

Called up after the trade deadline in 2014, Trevor in 2015 appeared in 48 games and made 16 starts in his first full season with the Twins.  He posted a 4.00 ERA, a 1.344 WHiP, and 3.80 FIP, with 127 hits allowed, a 2.0 W/9 average, and 110 strikeouts through 114.2 innings pitched.  

His 2016 season was compromised by a back injury, and he would subsequently require Tommy John surgery.  After missing all of 2017, Trevor returned to action on the last day of July 2018 to post a promising 3.20 ERA, a 1.026 WHiP, and 3.08 FIP while allowing 21 hits and striking out 36 batters over a brief 25.1 innings pitched.  

This brings us to MLB's last full season, which happened to be Trevor May's first full season post-Tommy John surgery.  In 2019, Trevor appeared in 65 games, posting a career-low 2.94 ERA and a 1.073 WHiP, yielding 43 hits and fanning 79 batters through 64.1 innings.  However, despite a marked decrease from a 7.5 H/9 to a 6.0 H/9 mark, a considerably lowered BABIP, and a career-low .181 average against, he saw his W/9 average, ERA+, and FIP climb significantly.  He pitched in consecutive games eleven times during the season and only once pitched in three straight games.

From his rookie season of 2014 through 2016, Trevor May's velocity increased from 93.1mph to 95.0mph before TJ surgery.  By 2019, he was up to 95.9mph.

Last year he clocked in at a career-high 96.7mph but threw it a career-low 51.8% of the time after averaging 60.6% over his first five seasons.  Trevor in 2020 also abandoned his curveball when it once comprised 14.1% of his repertoire.  Instead, May more than doubled usage (32.6%) of his slider while mixing in a change with a 15.6% rate of frequency.  Net result, he posted career-highs with a 14.7 K/9 average and 39.6 K% through 24 appearances, and 23.1 innings pitched.  His W/9 and FIP improved slightly.  However, his 3.86 ERA, 1.157 WHiP, .326 BABIP, 7.7 H/9 average, and .225 average against, while not terrible by any stretch, all represent increases over the previous season. 

Otherwise, may Trevor's force be with us.

A Metsian Podcast: First Quarter Review

From the desk of: HEAD-BUTTING MR. MET

with SAM, RICH, and MIKE

We are one-quarter of the way through the New York Mets 2020 regular season.  There is good news making some fans think they're taking a turn for the better, but there's also bad news making other fans think they're taking a turn for the worse.  So, which is it?  Join Sam, Rich, and I, as we attempt to get a fix on the Mets direction.  Pitching; fielding; timely hitting; and this sudden love affair with Andres Gimenez; A Metsian Podcast will cover it all; including a look back at the Amazin' 1962 Mets.

#LGM