N.Y. Mets: Hoping Trevor May Brings Stability to Bullpen Uncertainty

From the desk: HEAD-BUTTING MR. MET

PITCHERS & CATCHERS

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THE BULLPEN

• Pitchers & Catchers: deGrominator Rising
• Pitchers & Catchers: Pressure on Marcus Stroman to Form One-Two Punch
• Pitchers & Catchers: Difference Between Good And Great Could Be Carlos Carrasco
• Pitchers & Catchers: Can David Peterson Pick Up Where He Left Off?
  
• A Metsian Podcast: Reporting to Camp with Baseball Writer & Analyst Ernest Dove

Trevor May Entering Strange New World

Considering the recent injury to Seth Lugo, newly acquired Trevor May might already be the Mets best reliever for all intent and purpose without even having thrown a pitch.  That speaks to how badly the rest of this bullpen riddles me with anxiety.

There are the returnees: Jeurys Familia, Dellin Betances, Robert Gsellman, Miguel Castro, the injured Seth Lugo, and perhaps Jerry Blevins.  There's the main free-agent addition Aaron Loup, and a clutch of potentials, prospects, minor signees, and spring invitees such as Mike Montgomery, Tommy Hunter,  Thomas Szapucki, the familiar Drew Smith, Jacob Barnes, and Sam McWilliams, to name a few. 

For a split second, Familia and Betances were being shopped around in what was being rumored as a salary dump.  But when other key free-agent relievers signed elsewhere, the undynamic duo again suddenly became indispensable.  

Betances last season struggled with a 7.71 ERA, a career-high .353 BABIP, and a WHiP over two in 15 appearances while yielding an untenable ten runs on twelve hits and twelve walks in only 11.2 innings pitched.  His velocity has plummeted from a career-high 98.4mph in 2017 to 94.9mph last season, a loss of 3.5mph in three years.  Meanwhile, Jeurys Familia, whose velocity remains constant at 97.0mph, simply walks too many batters, reflected by last year's 6.4 W/9 average, a bloated 1.463 WHiP, and career-high (full-season) 4.92 FIP.  However, he still somehow posted a representative .204 average against and .247 BABIP.

Robert Gsellman remains a likable member of the bullpen.  But truth be told, since his rookie season, he has been nothing short of ineffective.  You can look it up.  As for Edwin Diaz, he'll get his own narrative coming shortly.

In the meantime, the burden inevitably being placed upon all the aforementioned relievers' shoulders originates with the starting rotation.  Over the course of their respective careers, Jacob deGrom averages 6.1 innings per start, and Marcus Stroman averages an even six innings.  Carlos Carrasco and Taijuan Walkers are next in, averaging 5.2 innings per start.  Further down the depth chart, David Peterson and Joey Lucchesi average 5.1 innings, while Jordan Yamamoto clocks in at five innings flat.  That means, on average, the Mets bullpen will be responsible for 3.2 innings per game, or, said another way, eleven outs ... again, on average.

All the concerns listed herein are precisely why Trevor May's upcoming role in Queens is destined to be far different, or should I say more treacherous, from the one he grew accustomed to at Minneapolis.  Last season he was placed in just three save situations, and over the last three seasons has only faced ten save situations (successfully converting seven).  If recent Flushing history is any indication, the 31-year old right-hander will be afforded numerous more opportunities despite whether or not Edwin Diaz fulfills his primary role as closer.  Two seasons ago, Mets relievers were placed into 65 save situations; Edwin Diaz converted 26 of 33 opportunities while the remaining bullpen saved twelve games in near-equal 32 opportunities.  During last year's abbreviated season, the bullpen was faced with 18 save situations.  Diaz converted six of ten opportunities, and the rest saved five of eight chances. 

KNOW TREVOR MAY

Called up after the trade deadline in 2014, Trevor in 2015 appeared in 48 games and made 16 starts in his first full season with the Twins.  He posted a 4.00 ERA, a 1.344 WHiP, and 3.80 FIP, with 127 hits allowed, a 2.0 W/9 average, and 110 strikeouts through 114.2 innings pitched.  

His 2016 season was compromised by a back injury, and he would subsequently require Tommy John surgery.  After missing all of 2017, Trevor returned to action on the last day of July 2018 to post a promising 3.20 ERA, a 1.026 WHiP, and 3.08 FIP while allowing 21 hits and striking out 36 batters over a brief 25.1 innings pitched.  

This brings us to MLB's last full season, which happened to be Trevor May's first full season post-Tommy John surgery.  In 2019, Trevor appeared in 65 games, posting a career-low 2.94 ERA and a 1.073 WHiP, yielding 43 hits and fanning 79 batters through 64.1 innings.  However, despite a marked decrease from a 7.5 H/9 to a 6.0 H/9 mark, a considerably lowered BABIP, and a career-low .181 average against, he saw his W/9 average, ERA+, and FIP climb significantly.  He pitched in consecutive games eleven times during the season and only once pitched in three straight games.

From his rookie season of 2014 through 2016, Trevor May's velocity increased from 93.1mph to 95.0mph before TJ surgery.  By 2019, he was up to 95.9mph.

Last year he clocked in at a career-high 96.7mph but threw it a career-low 51.8% of the time after averaging 60.6% over his first five seasons.  Trevor in 2020 also abandoned his curveball when it once comprised 14.1% of his repertoire.  Instead, May more than doubled usage (32.6%) of his slider while mixing in a change with a 15.6% rate of frequency.  Net result, he posted career-highs with a 14.7 K/9 average and 39.6 K% through 24 appearances, and 23.1 innings pitched.  His W/9 and FIP improved slightly.  However, his 3.86 ERA, 1.157 WHiP, .326 BABIP, 7.7 H/9 average, and .225 average against, while not terrible by any stretch, all represent increases over the previous season. 

Otherwise, may Trevor's force be with us.