N.Y. Mets: On the Bullpen's Three Game Trend

From the desk: HEAD-BUTTING MR. MET

TRUCKING UP I-95 ON THE LAST LEG HOME

OPENING DAY

Marlins

vs.

Mets

FROM

ROOSEVELT AVENUE GROUNDS

Flushing, Queens

Edwin Diaz Coming to a Ballpark Near You

If you follow me, you're familiar with one of my rules of thumb: once is an event, twice is a coincidence, and three times is a trend.  

Insofar as trending, there is the micro and the macro.  For the moment, we have a three-game series at Philadelphia to speak of.  By mid-April, we will have three series to compare and contrast.  

The point being, I apply equal importance to early-season games as I would to any in June or September.  I believe in getting off to good starts with the idea that you cannot win pennants in April, but you can certainly lose them.

Therefore, with great angst, I say the Mets will go as far as their bullpen carries them.  I'm not breaking new ground here.  That is just the modern condition of baseball.  

In the first three games alone, the Mets relievers relinquished a lead, upheld a lead in game two, then played a rather inconsequential role in Wednesday afternoon's loss against the Phillies.

Manager Luis Rojas called upon three relievers in each of the first three games.  In games one and two,  Miguel Castro and Trevor May were joined by Aaron Loup and Jeurys Familia.  On Wednesday, Jacob Barnes, Dellin Betances, and Joey Lucchesi each made their season debut. 

Overall, the bullpen has accounted for 36% of the Mets 25 total innings pitched.  Seven different relievers have joined together to throw 194 pitches, with 118 (60.8%) going for strikes.  They've yielded six earned runs on 13 hits and three walks through nine innings for a 6.00 ERA and 1.77 WHiP with eleven strikeouts.  Still slated to be a starter, Joey Lucchesi distinguished himself by allowing one lone hit with three strikeouts through two innings pitched. 

Despite David Peterson lasting just four innings Wednesday against the Phillies, the Mets' first three starters, in turn, accounted for 64% of all innings pitched.  By midsummer, I expect the starting rotation to account for at least 68% of innings pitched.  In the meantime, Peterson's abbreviated start raised the bullpen's average usage up to three innings per game.

On Thursday, the Mets host the Miami Marlins for Opening Day at Citi Field.  Edwin Diaz is likely to make his season debut at home, assuming the Mets own a late-inning lead.  Lest we forget, last year the Marlins qualified for the post-season, and the Mets did not.  

Robert Gsellman is also yet to make his first appearance.

I eagerly await to see the next trios of relievers Luis Rojas deploys against the Marlins because that's how he's trending. 

N.Y. Mets: Grapefruit League Offers Dellin Betances No Quarter

From the desk: HEAD-BUTTING MR. MET

SPRING TRAINING

2021

Dellin Betances' Grapefruit Struggles Continue Tuesday Against Houston Astros

Spring Training means different things to different players.  Some merely work on timing or building arm strength; some are trying to impress and win jobs, while others are just biding time until Opening Day, whatever their respective case may be.  

However, there's one player whose Grapefruit League performance is likely being fueled by desperation, a veteran pitcher who turns 33-years old later this week and is suddenly being forced to relearn his craft in the face of losing upwards of four mph on his fastball.  

It's not a stretch at this point to say the future career of reliever Dellin Betances potentially lies in the balance.  

There no denying for five seasons as a member of the New York Yankees, he was among the American League's dominant relievers.  From 2014 through 2018, Betances averaged a 2.31 ERA in 74.2 innings pitched, highlighted by an efficient 5.2 H/9 and potent 14.7 K/9 averages.

All that came to a grinding halt when in 2019, he developed a right shoulder impingement.  But that was only the beginning of an injury-riddled season futher beset by a strained lat muscle and a torn Achilles tendon.

Just over two months after pitching his last game as a Bronx Bomber on Sept. 15, 2019, (then) Mets general manager Brodie Van Wagenen signed free agent Dellin Betances to a two-year pact with a third-year player option.

After missing all but one game the previous season, Dellin returned in 2020 to make 15 appearances in which he yielded ten runs on twelve hits and twelve walks with eleven strikeouts through 11.2 innings pitched.  All of which translated into a 7.71 ERA, a 2.057 WHiP, and a career-low 18.6% strikeout rate against batters faced.

With just 16 regular-season appearances over the last two years, the beleaguered reliever entered Tuesday's action, having previously faced 15 batters and yielding five runs, four earned, on three hits (including a home run), and three walks with a strikeout over three innings pitched.  Pitching Tuesday afternoon against the Astros, Betances faced six more batters, allowing two earned runs on two hits with a strikeout.  All told, he's faced 21 batters to date, surrendered six earned runs on five hits and three walks with two strikeouts over four innings pitched.  

Needless to say, efforts being made towards readapting his repertoire are not going well.  At this point, we fans are left hoping for any measure of effectiveness, further adjustments, positive trending, and/or ultimately, a turnaround of fortunes.  But the pragmatist in me says normalizing a 13.50 ERA and a bloated WHiP over two with just 15 days left till Opening Day is just not practical.

Spring Training is as Spring Training does; the exhibition season continues.

A Metsian Podcast: Grapefruit League Recaps & 1974 Retrospective with FAFIF's Greg Prince

From the desk: HEAD-BUTTING MR. MET

GUEST

FAITH AND FEAR IN FLUSHING

GREG PRINCE

115 minutes

Edwin Diaz ~ Brandon Nimmo ~ Dellin Betances ~ Sean Reid-Foley ~ Pete Alonso

? Albert Almora Jr. ? Scott Hairston ? Marlon Byrd ? Eric Young Jr. ? Kevin Pillar ?

Fred Wilpon at Spring Training ~ the 1974 New York Mets

and so much more!

#LGM

N.Y. Mets: Hoping Trevor May Brings Stability to Bullpen Uncertainty

From the desk: HEAD-BUTTING MR. MET

PITCHERS & CATCHERS

⚾

THE BULLPEN

• Pitchers & Catchers: deGrominator Rising
• Pitchers & Catchers: Pressure on Marcus Stroman to Form One-Two Punch
• Pitchers & Catchers: Difference Between Good And Great Could Be Carlos Carrasco
• Pitchers & Catchers: Can David Peterson Pick Up Where He Left Off?
  
• A Metsian Podcast: Reporting to Camp with Baseball Writer & Analyst Ernest Dove

Trevor May Entering Strange New World

Considering the recent injury to Seth Lugo, newly acquired Trevor May might already be the Mets best reliever for all intent and purpose without even having thrown a pitch.  That speaks to how badly the rest of this bullpen riddles me with anxiety.

There are the returnees: Jeurys Familia, Dellin Betances, Robert Gsellman, Miguel Castro, the injured Seth Lugo, and perhaps Jerry Blevins.  There's the main free-agent addition Aaron Loup, and a clutch of potentials, prospects, minor signees, and spring invitees such as Mike Montgomery, Tommy Hunter,  Thomas Szapucki, the familiar Drew Smith, Jacob Barnes, and Sam McWilliams, to name a few. 

For a split second, Familia and Betances were being shopped around in what was being rumored as a salary dump.  But when other key free-agent relievers signed elsewhere, the undynamic duo again suddenly became indispensable.  

Betances last season struggled with a 7.71 ERA, a career-high .353 BABIP, and a WHiP over two in 15 appearances while yielding an untenable ten runs on twelve hits and twelve walks in only 11.2 innings pitched.  His velocity has plummeted from a career-high 98.4mph in 2017 to 94.9mph last season, a loss of 3.5mph in three years.  Meanwhile, Jeurys Familia, whose velocity remains constant at 97.0mph, simply walks too many batters, reflected by last year's 6.4 W/9 average, a bloated 1.463 WHiP, and career-high (full-season) 4.92 FIP.  However, he still somehow posted a representative .204 average against and .247 BABIP.

Robert Gsellman remains a likable member of the bullpen.  But truth be told, since his rookie season, he has been nothing short of ineffective.  You can look it up.  As for Edwin Diaz, he'll get his own narrative coming shortly.

In the meantime, the burden inevitably being placed upon all the aforementioned relievers' shoulders originates with the starting rotation.  Over the course of their respective careers, Jacob deGrom averages 6.1 innings per start, and Marcus Stroman averages an even six innings.  Carlos Carrasco and Taijuan Walkers are next in, averaging 5.2 innings per start.  Further down the depth chart, David Peterson and Joey Lucchesi average 5.1 innings, while Jordan Yamamoto clocks in at five innings flat.  That means, on average, the Mets bullpen will be responsible for 3.2 innings per game, or, said another way, eleven outs ... again, on average.

All the concerns listed herein are precisely why Trevor May's upcoming role in Queens is destined to be far different, or should I say more treacherous, from the one he grew accustomed to at Minneapolis.  Last season he was placed in just three save situations, and over the last three seasons has only faced ten save situations (successfully converting seven).  If recent Flushing history is any indication, the 31-year old right-hander will be afforded numerous more opportunities despite whether or not Edwin Diaz fulfills his primary role as closer.  Two seasons ago, Mets relievers were placed into 65 save situations; Edwin Diaz converted 26 of 33 opportunities while the remaining bullpen saved twelve games in near-equal 32 opportunities.  During last year's abbreviated season, the bullpen was faced with 18 save situations.  Diaz converted six of ten opportunities, and the rest saved five of eight chances. 

KNOW TREVOR MAY

Called up after the trade deadline in 2014, Trevor in 2015 appeared in 48 games and made 16 starts in his first full season with the Twins.  He posted a 4.00 ERA, a 1.344 WHiP, and 3.80 FIP, with 127 hits allowed, a 2.0 W/9 average, and 110 strikeouts through 114.2 innings pitched.  

His 2016 season was compromised by a back injury, and he would subsequently require Tommy John surgery.  After missing all of 2017, Trevor returned to action on the last day of July 2018 to post a promising 3.20 ERA, a 1.026 WHiP, and 3.08 FIP while allowing 21 hits and striking out 36 batters over a brief 25.1 innings pitched.  

This brings us to MLB's last full season, which happened to be Trevor May's first full season post-Tommy John surgery.  In 2019, Trevor appeared in 65 games, posting a career-low 2.94 ERA and a 1.073 WHiP, yielding 43 hits and fanning 79 batters through 64.1 innings.  However, despite a marked decrease from a 7.5 H/9 to a 6.0 H/9 mark, a considerably lowered BABIP, and a career-low .181 average against, he saw his W/9 average, ERA+, and FIP climb significantly.  He pitched in consecutive games eleven times during the season and only once pitched in three straight games.

From his rookie season of 2014 through 2016, Trevor May's velocity increased from 93.1mph to 95.0mph before TJ surgery.  By 2019, he was up to 95.9mph.

Last year he clocked in at a career-high 96.7mph but threw it a career-low 51.8% of the time after averaging 60.6% over his first five seasons.  Trevor in 2020 also abandoned his curveball when it once comprised 14.1% of his repertoire.  Instead, May more than doubled usage (32.6%) of his slider while mixing in a change with a 15.6% rate of frequency.  Net result, he posted career-highs with a 14.7 K/9 average and 39.6 K% through 24 appearances, and 23.1 innings pitched.  His W/9 and FIP improved slightly.  However, his 3.86 ERA, 1.157 WHiP, .326 BABIP, 7.7 H/9 average, and .225 average against, while not terrible by any stretch, all represent increases over the previous season. 

Otherwise, may Trevor's force be with us.

A Mushroom Cloud Rises Over Flushing on Another Metsian Podcast

From the desk of: HEAD-BUTTING MR. MET

with SAM, RICH, and MIKE

!! GIMMIE SHELTER !!

DEALING WITH THE FALLOUT

Joined by 

Jeff Cohen from Baseball And BBQ

NEW YORK METS

• First Ten Games: 3-7 (.300)
• Five Game Losing Streak
• 19 for 94 (.202) with runners in scoring position
• Team ERA: 5.52
• YOENIS CESPEDES EXITS STAGE LEFT

And the rant begins...!

Give a Listen

#LGM

N.Y. Mets: Ongoing Ninth Inning Fire Rages On

From the desk of: HEAD-BUTTING MR. MET

WILL THE METS REAL FIREMAN PLEASE STEP UP

One strike away from their second straight victory to begin the season, and ...

 ( ( ( (    POOF!  ) ) ) )

... another Edwin Diaz pitch irretrievably disappears over the fence.

Manager Rojas spends the lead-up making timely substitutions and smartly reconfiguring his defense.  In fact, the freshman Rojas sets the stage rather well.  Starter Steven Matz exits on the winning side of a 2-1 contest after six innings and 93 pitches thrown, with 58 (62%) going for strikes.  After which the trio of Jeurys Familia, Dellin Betances, and Justin Wilson, join together for two scoreless innings, allowing just two hits and fanning a pair.

Enter Edwin Diaz; it's the ninth inning.  With two outs and the Mets clinging to a slim 2-1 lead, he gets two strikes on Atlanta designated hitter Marcell Ozuna.  Then comes the fatal pitch, belt high and flat, on the outside portion of the plate, just begging to be hit the other way by a right handed batter.  And Ozuna does just that, sending Diaz' offering high beyond the reach of Michael Conforto, and over the right field fence - game tied.  The Mets eventually lose in the tenth inning, but the damage is already done (MLB's new extra inning rules be damned).

Diaz last year pitches 58 innings and yields fifteen home runs all in the ninth inning, which sets a new MLB record previously established by Francisco Rodriguez.  Now with the 2020 season underway, Edwin appears in each of the Mets first two games.  Therefore, since arriving at Flushing he has now pitched 60 innings, surrendered sixteen home runs, all in the ninth inning.  It bears repeating: eight blown saves; seven losses, sixteen home runs allowed in just 60 innings pitched, with a 5.37 ERA and 1.379 WHiP, over 68 overall appearances as a Met.  Edwin Diaz is 26-years old and a veteran of four full major league seasons, during which he's averaged 67 innings per season.  Therefore, his arm is far from approaching its expiration date.  His 103 strikeouts and 15.4 K/9 average are perhaps his best and only defense.  He strikes out two on Opening Day, and strikes out two more on Saturday before his run in with Ozuna.  But what good is that?

Granted this is only game two of the season, but - and it's a big but - there remains only 58 games left to play.  Therefore, one must question how much longer can the Mets afford to hand over ninth inning responsibilities to a consistently ineffective Edwin Diaz.

FIREMAN WANTED: INQUIRE WITHIN

In this compromised 60-game season, time is of the essence.  The responsibility of rethinking the ninth inning now falls on Luis Rojas.  Hunter Strickland raised some eyebrows during Summer Camp, but on Saturday had fans watching at home turning and looking the other way.  He incurs the loss upon yielding three runs, two earned, in just one-third of an inning pitched.  But the likes of Seth Lugo, Jeurys Familia, Justin Wilson, Dellin Betances, along with Edwin Diaz, should perhaps begin taking on a greater collective role insofar as closing out the ninth inning.

Steven Matz is the overlooked victim in all this.  He allows just one earned run on a mere two hits with one walk, and seven strikeouts, but for all his efforts unfortunately walks away with a no decision.

N.Y. Mets: No Baseball For You

From the desk of:  HEAD-BUTTING MR. MET

WE INTERRUPT SPRING TRAINING AND THE

2020 REGULAR SEASON DUE TO THE COVID-19 OUTBREAK 

No baseball for you  - at least not yet, or the foreseeable future.  With coronavirus running wild, Take Me Out to the Ballgame certainly takes on a different tune.

However, the Trolley rolls on ... 

I - Starting Pitching

• Starting Rotation Weaker Without Wheeler 
• Stop Matzing Around With Starting Rotation

Noah Syndergaard will turn 28-years old this season.  It's time for him to step it up.  My most serious criticism against Noah through the years has been his lack of craftsmanship.  Last season he exceeded 30 starts for the first time in three years, fanning 202 batters and walking only 50 through 197.2 innings pitched.  However he surrendered a career high 24 home runs which contributed greatly to his career high 4.28 ERA.  That must change.  With health presumably back on his side there will be little excuse should he fail to elevate his game.  We Mets fans wish and hope for him to become an elite pitcher.  But he is not there yet.

Rick Porcello has to date yielded 15 hits and just one walk with eight strikeouts through 10.2 innings pitched.  I was in complete agreement with this acquisition.  However, the signing of Michael Wacha, not so much.  Wacha has surrendered eight hits and four walks in just 7.2 Grapefruit League innings pitched.  In 2019, Wacha's first full season back from injury, he yielded 143 hits and 55 walks for a 1.563 WHiP through 126.2 innings.

II - Bullpen

Looks like Dellin Betances will have all the time he'll need for amping up that velocity.  He says he's a slow starter.  Time is now on his side.  Meanwhile a slimmed down Jeurys Familia is performing well, but the troubled Edwin Diaz is not - four hits allowed and just one strikeout in three innings pitched.

As we know the Mets staff is short on left-hand pitching.  In fact, Justin Wilson is the only bullpen southpaw whom I would qualify as reliable.  That's why I've been rooting for Chasen Shreve to win a seat on the bus back to Flushing.  A potential power arm, Shreve to date has yielded five hits (two home runs) and two walks with five strikeouts in six innings pitched.  Not exactly what I had in mind.

Seth Lugo wants to start, but his performance betrays him.  Compare 2017, his last season as a full time starter, versus his last two seasons as a full time reliever.  As a starter he yielded 114 hits in 101.1 innings.  As a reliever these last two seasons, he has allowed just 137 hits over 181.1 innings pitched.  As a starter he posted a 10.1 H/9, 2.2 W/9, and 7.5 K/9.  Last year he posted a career low 6.3 H/9 and 1.8 W/9, and a career high 11.7 K/9.  The Mets need to utilize him to the best of his ability.  If that means putting their foot down, so be it.

#washyourhands

Arizona Mets Fan Anna Brice Weighs In On Another Metsian Podcast

From the desk of:  HEAD-BUTTING MR. MET

You can take the girl out of the city,

but you can't the city out of the girl.

LISTEN IN

A METSIAN PODCAST

with SAM, RICH, and MIKE

GUEST:

Native New Yorker, Jersey Girl, Arizona Resident, 

and Mets Fan Extraordinaire

@AnnaBrice

102 minutes

Coronavirus Panic

Steven Matz ~ Dellin Betances ~ Seth Lugo ~ Michael Wacha

Robinson Cano ~ Yoenis Cespedes

Great Broadcasters in Mets History ~ Mets Who've Worn #46

Steve Cohen ~ Sale of the Mets ~ James Dolan

Arizona Pizza ~ Lee Mazzilli

and so much more!

#LFGM

N.Y. Yankess: The Price is Right

From the desk of:  BLAME CARLOS MAY

Series tied 1-1

I - BOS 5; NYY 4

II - NYY 6; BOS 2

AMERICAN LEAGUE DIVISION SERIES

GAME TWO

YANKEES  6

RED SOX   2

FINAL

New York Yankees: Look what the Bronx Bombers did to David Price, again!

Beware!  Aaron Judge is slipping.  

Judge homered in last Wednesday's Wild Card game against Oakland on only Liam Hendriks' ninth pitch of the game.  On Friday, Judge homered again, but not till the ninth inning on Craig Kimbrel's ninth offering upon entering Game One of the ALDS at Fenway Park.  In Game Two, however, Aaron Judge didn't homer until David Price's tenth offering of the game.  

All kidding aside, Aaron went 5 for 9 through two ALDS games at Fenway Park with two home runs, two RBI, two runs scored, a walk, and just as importantly, only one strikeout.  Now the Yankees return to Judge's Bronx County court where he undoubtedly plays his best ball.  With an equal 56 games played at home and on the road, he struck out 87 times on the road but only 65 times at home.  When wielding his bat in the confines of Yankee Stadium, Aaron slashes .352/.471/.699/1.170, with 18 of 27 home runs and 45 of 67 regular season RBI.

And don't look now, but here comes Gary Sanchez.  In Game Two, he and Aaron Judges join to hit somewhere in the neighborhood of 12,000 feet worth of home runs.  Judge's first inning tater was measured at 445 feet.  Gary Sanchez homer in the third clanged off the light fixtures above the Green Monster, while his second home run of the game sailed up and over Fenway's walls, and onto on Landsdowne Street some 479 feet away.

This game actually marks the first time David Price faces the Yankees in a post-season game.  After Saturday's failed effort, Price is now 2-9 in 18 playoff appearances (ten starts) with a 5.28 ERA, according to Baseball Reference.  Price previously faces the Yankees four times during the regular season, and is downright terrible.  He makes starts in April, July, August, and September in which he totals 15.2 innings pitched for an average of just 3.2 innings per start.  He faces 79 total batters, allowing 16 earned runs on 21 hits (including nine home runs) for a 9.47 ERA, with seven walks and just 12 strikeouts.

I don't know how to say "clutch" in Japanese, but as a Yankee Masahiro Tanaka has been just that.  He surrenders just a run on three hits and a walk, with four strikeouts in earning Saturday's victory over the Red Sox.  In five career post-season starts for the Yankees, Tanaka is now 3-2 with a minuscule 1.50 ERA through 30 innings pitched, while surrendering just 17 hits for a 5.1 H/9 average, and seven walks for a 1.8 W/9 average, resulting in a stellar 0.800 WHiP.

The Yankees bullpen accounts for another four innings, allowing just one earned run on two hits (off Dellin Betances), with two walks and two strikeouts.  Through two games, they've allowed just one run through 10 innings for a 0.90 ERA, on just six hits, four walks, and seven strikeouts.

Meanwhile, the Red Sox bullpen is enduring a heavy tax.  In Game two, they call upon five more relievers whom render 7.1 innings pitched, allowing three runs on five hits and five walks, with seven strikeouts.  Through two games, they've allowed five earned runs through 9.1 innings pitched for a 4.94 ERA, on 10 hits, eight walks, with nine strikeouts.  

Boston pitchers throw 165 pitches in Game Two, and have thrown 347 overall.  The Yankees throw 133 pitches in Game Two, and just 260 overall.  That's been paying small dividends, to date.  With more pitches to chose from, they've out-hit the Red Sox through two games by an 18-13 margin, and own the edge in home runs, four against two.  The Yankees limited their strikeouts to just seven in Game Two, and there's no coincidence they win.  After striking out 13 times in Game One, they lose by one.