N.Y. Mets: Can't Save Themselves From The Dog Days of Spring

From the desk of: HEAD-BUTTING MR. MET

GATES CLOSED

The Regular Season is Now a Matter of Record.  

So What Happened?

The Mets played exactly 23 meaningful games in September.  Ironically a victory over the Miami Marlins is their last, as the competition squeezes them out of post-season contention at the 158 game mark.  They finish the regular season in third place, eleven games back of first, and three games out of the wild card race.  With an 86-76 (.531) record the Mets at least assure themselves of their first winning season in three years.  

While many if not most fans and media point to the Mets 27 blown saves as the main reason why they failed to qualify for the playoffs, there's also something to be said for what is becoming a habitual Spring swoon.  From May 15 through the end of June the Mets post an 18-27 record featuring five and seven game losing streaks respectively.  By July 5 they are ten games under .500 sporting a 40-50 record.  It is during this dreadful two month period that a great majority of this season's blown saves occur.

THE DOG DAYS of SPRING

• May/June 2015:  25-30 (.454); 65-42 (.607) rest of season.
• May/June 2016:  26-30 (.464); 61-45 (.575) rest of season.
• May/June 2017:  27-28 (.491); 43-64 (.402) rest of season.
• May/June 2018:  15-39 (.278); 62-46 (.574) rest of season.
• May/June 2019:  23-33 (.411); 63-43 (.594) rest of season.

Last season with the Mariners Edwin Diaz posts a 1.96 ERA through 73.1 innings pitched.  He converts a major league best 57 of 61 save opportunities for a 93% success rate with four blown saves. In his first season with the Mets he converts 26 of 33 save opportunities for a 79% success rate with seven blown saves.  He yields a career high 15 home runs skyrocketing his ERA upwards of 5.59 in 58.0 innings pitched.  Since Diaz led the Mets in blown saves, he naturally bears the brunt of criticism.  But make no mistake, New York's bullpen inefficiencies were a collective effort.  Edwin Diaz accounts for 26% of all Mets blown saves - seven for Diaz and 20 blown saves for everyone else.  That begs the question: who is responsible for blowing the other 74% of save opportunities?

THE CULPRITS

• Edwin Diaz: (26/33) 79% conversions; 7 blown saves.
• Drew Gagnon/Wilmer Font/Brad Brach/Tyler Bashlor: (0/6) 0% conversions; 6 blown saves.
• Seth Lugo: (6/11) 54% conversions; 5 blown saves.
• Robert Gsellman: (1/5) 20% conversions; 4 blown saves.
• Jeurys Familia: (0/4) 0% conversions; 4 blown saves.
• Justin Wilson: (4/5) 80% conversions; 1 blown save.
• Paul Sewald: (1/1) 100% conversions; 0 blown saves.

There are still another 13 relief pitchers so far unmentioned here whom this past season appeared out of the Mets bullpen.  Outside of Luis Avilan, very few if any are worth mentioning.  However, none were put into save situations.

And what of the competition?  How are they trending?

San Diego's 32-year old Kirby Yates comes out of nowhere to post a National League leading 44 saves, with a 93% conversion rate, and only three blown saves.  Alas the Padres are not in the playoffs.  Also home watching TV are Cincinnati's Raisel Iglesias who posts 34 saves, with an 85% conversion rate and six blown saves, and San Francisco's Will Smith who likewise posts 34 saves with an 89% conversion rate and only four blown saves.  Rounding out the National League's top five closers, Milwaukee's Josh Harder finishes second with 37 saves, off an 84% conversion rate with seven blown saves.  L.A.'s Kenley Jansen saves 33 games with an 80% conversion rate and eight blown saves.

National League Playoff Qualifiers

• Atlanta Braves: 66% conversions; 23 blown saves.
• St. Louis Cardinals: 71% conversions; 21 blown saves.
• Los Angeles Dodgers: 60% conversions; 29 blown saves.
• Washington Nationals: 58% conversions; 29 blown saves.
• Milwaukee Brewers: 64% conversions; 28 blown saves.

• National League Averaage: 61.4% conversions; 25 blown saves.
• NEW YORK METS: (38/65) 58% CONVERSIONS; 27 BLOWN SAVES.

American League Playoff Qualifiers

• N.Y. Yankees: 63% conversions; 28 blown saves.
• Houston Astros: 70% conversions; 20 blown saves.
• Minnesota Twins: 69% conversions; 22 blown saves.
• Oakland A's: 59% conversions; 31 blown saves.
• Tampa Bay Rays: 63% conversions; 27 blown saves.

Every team blows saves.  But in the National League only the Mets, Nationals, Cubs, Pirates, Rockies, and Marlins, fail to convert at least 60% of their opportunities.  Washington survives the wild card game.  In the American League, Oakland does not.  

Make of it what you will.

N.Y. Mets: The Bullpen Strikes Back

From the desk of:  HEAD-BUTTING MR. MET

The Bullpen's Back and You're Gonna Be In Trouble

It's no coincidence that since the return of relievers Luis Avilan and Justin Wilson, it's not just Seth Lugo whom appears back in top form.  The bullpen and pitching staff as a whole are excelling and the Mets are surging as a result.

Avilan was sporting a 9.28 ERA when on May 3 he succumbed to injury.  He misses the rest of May and all of June.  Justin Wilson's ERA stood at 4.82 when on May 6 he too is felled by injury.  Like Avilan, Justin Wilson misses the rest of May and all of June.  By the time both relievers go missing the Mets own a 16-19 record.  Without them the Mets go on to win 12 of their remaining 22 games in May, but lose 18 of 28 games in June dropping their record to 26-37 for the season.

On May 7, Seth Lugo owns a 3.13 ERA.  In the absence of Avilan and Wilson his ERA balloons to a 3.60 mark.  In June Lugo yields seven earned runs on 15 hits with a 4.84 ERA and three blown saves over ten appearances and 13 innings pitched.

Justin Wilson returns on July 2 and has since lowered his ERA to a 2.86 mark.  Luis Avilan returns on July 5 and has since lowered his ERA to a 5.12 mark.  In turn Seth Lugo has lowered his ERA from 3.51 at the start of July down to 2.73 by month's end.  As of Sunday he owns a 2.65 ERA through 45 appearances.

Since July 3 even Jeurys Familia has lowered his ERA by more than a full point.

The bullpen owns a 3.20 ERA since the all-star break, and the pitching staff as a whole owns a 2.70 ERA while in the midst of this Amazin' 15-1 run.