The Metsian Podcast's Winter Meeting With Amazin' But True Podcast Host Jake Brown and QBC's Keith Blacknick

From the desk: HEAD-BUTTING MR. MET

Break Time is Over ... The Metsian Podcast is Back on the Air

GUESTS

New York Post Sports Exec Producer 

Host of Amazin' But True Podcast

JAKE BROWN

&

Queens Baseball Convention's

TheMediaGoon, aka Keith Blacknick

ninety-two minutes

TOPICS

Steve Cohen ~ Sandy Alderson ~ Front Office

Free Agents ~ MLB vs. UNION ~ Pitching

Prospects ~ Robinson Cano ~ Field Manager

Upcoming QBC  ~ and so much more!

#LGM

The Metsian Podcast: Ushering Change in Flushing With The One, The Infamous, Tío Al

From the desk: HEAD-BUTTING MR. MET

@THE_SamMaxwell     @MetFanRich     @BTB_MikeII

GUEST

Met Fan ~ Mister Hot Take

THE ONE ... THE ONLY

Infamous Tío Al

eighty-two minutes

Changes in Flushing are underway.  After two seasons of pandemic baseball and front-office dysfunction, Luis Rojas was recently let go as manager, along with long-time bullpen coach Ricky Bones and other members of the coaching staff.  But time is fleeting, and the Mets have yet to get their front office in order.  We know who won't be taking over as President of Baseball Operations, Theo Epstein.  Joining The Metsian Podcast in helping bring 2021 to a close, navigate a new course, and ponder potential front-office and managerial candidates will be Mets fan extraordinaire, mister hot-take on Twitter and YouTube, the Only and Infamous, Tío Al.

#LGM

The Metsian Podcast: Bringing 2021 Season to a Close with MLB Illustrated's Sadie

From the desk: HEAD-BUTTING MR. MET

GUEST
Graphics Designer, Digital Marketer, Baseball Fan

@MLBIllustrated     @PrintsBySadie

SADIE

METS FAN FROM ALBERTA, CANADA

seventy-one minutes

2021 

Regular Season 

Finale

The Metsian Podcast: Mourning the Passing of Flushing's 2021 Playoff Aspirations

From the desk: HEAD-BUTTING MR. MET

@THE_SamMaxwell   @MetFanRich   BTB_MikeII

Look out!  That piano falling out of the sky has a New York Mets logo on it.  Sunday's series finale against the Brewers was akin to something out of Looney Toons.  If only they were as enjoyable to watch.  Swept by the Cardinals, two losses against the Phillies, swept at Boston, and again at Milwaukee, the free fall continues.  The season's final homestand opens on Tuesday against the always troublesome Miami Marlins, then it's off to Atlanta to close out the schedule against the Braves.  Alas, their remaining games retain little matter in the standings.  Please join Sam, Rich, and I as The Metsian Podcast regrettably mourns the passing of Flushing's 2021 playoff hopes and aspirations.

ninety-five minutes

What Went Wrong And When...?

Marcus Stroman ~ Michael Conforto ~ Javier Baez

Jeff McNeil ~ Taijuan Walker ~ Edwin Diaz ~ Noah Syndergaard

The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim ~ The New York Mets of Queens

Third Base ... I Don't Know

and so much more!

#LGM

Stumbling Into The September Stretch on Another Metsian Podacst

From the desk: HEAD-BUTTING MR. MET

@THE_SamMaxwell  @MetFanRich  @BTB_MikeII

@THEMetsianPod

The week that was versus Miami and Washington, and the weeks to come in Flushing.

#LGM

It's a Mad, Mad, Mets World: A Cathartic Metsian Podcast With TUMARO MEDIA's Phil Maillard

From the desk: HEAD-BUTTING MR. MET

GUEST
TUMARO MEDIA

PHIL MAILLARD

114 minutes

It's a Mad, Mad, Mad, Mets world.  The lack of slugging is driving us crazy.  After losing three of four to the Miami Marlins, being swept by the Phillies, and falling out of first place, Sam, Rich, me, and Phil Maillard convene for a cathartic episode of The Metsian Podcast.  We're here for you.  Listen in and decompress.

#LGM

The Metsian Podcast Post-Trade Deadline Special with The Record's Justin Toscano

From the desk: HEAD-BUTTING MR. MET

GUEST
Mets Beat Writer

THE RECORD NorthJersey.com

JUSTIN TOSCANO

Trade Deadline Reaction

Kumar Rocker ~ Michael Conforto ~ Jacob deGrom ~ Javier Baez

Mets Hall of Fame Inductees

and so much more!

The Metsian Podcast: The Second Half Begins With Metstradamus, John Coppinger

From the desk: HEAD-BUTTING MR. MET

ROAD TRIP REVIEW:

PITTSBURGH & CINCINNATI

GUEST

METSTRADAMUS

JOHN COPPINGER

eighty-three minutes

 

#LGM

The Metsian Podcast First Half Review

From the desk: HEAD-BUTTING MR. MET

@THE_SamMaxwell       @MetFanRich       @BTB_MikeII

113 minutes

FIRST HALF REVIEW

#LGM

The Metsian Podcast: The Dog Days Of June(?) with the Kranepool Society, Stephen Keane

From the desk: HEAD-BUTTING MR. MET

38-31 (.551), First Place

It's officially summertime!  Independence Day is ten days away, and the Mets, against all odds, still hold a four-game division lead over the Washington Nationals.  While it can be said the Mets are still feeding off their seven-game and five-game winning streaks back in May, they've nonetheless scratched and clawed to stay above par in June.  But how much longer can this last?  Joining The Metsian Podcast to help answer that question (and talk some 1979 Mets) is the one and only governor of the Kranepool Society ...

Stephen Keane

seventy-four minutes

 

THE METSIAN PODFEST: featuring Subway To Shea Podcast & MetsMusings Podcast

From the desk: HEAD-BUTTING MR. MET

This week The Metsian Podcast welcomes Anthony Rivera, proprietor of the Subway To Shea Podcast, to the show.  On the docket: a seven-game win streak, injuries, stock up/stock down, RatCoon, The Dark Knight returns, and a Mets 1977 regular season rewind assist from Gary Mac of MetsMusings Podcast.

 

eighty-two minutes

Calling all fans!  Be on the lookout for players involved with elevating the Mets into first place.  Several of the conspirators are known members of the notorious Bench Mob.  The rest of the team is armed with effective pitching and an increasingly dangerous lineup.  They are reported to have come away with series victories against the Diamondbacks and Orioles at Citi Field and are now thought to be in transit towards the Tampa/St. Pete area disguised in surfer shorts, sandals, sunglasses, and sunscreen.

#LGM 

The Metsian Podcast: Putting April Through the Translator with The Record/NorthJersey Mets Columnist Justin Tuscano

From the desk: HEAD-BUTTING MR. MET

GUEST

From The Record and NorthJersey.com

New York Mets Columnist 

JUSTIN C. TUSCANO

104 minutes

APRIL WRAP-UP

Early Assessments ~ Hitting Woes ~ Mother Nature

Zack Scott ~ Luis Rojas ~ Chili Davis ~ Sandy Alderson

Jacob deGrom ~ Michael Conforto ~ Pete Alonso ~ Francisco Lindor

Tom Seaver ~ Doc Gooden ~ Brandon Nimmo

and so much more!

#LGM

N.Y. Mets: Michael Conforto Stock Opens the Season on a Downtick

From the desk: HEAD-BUTTING MR. MET

Playing the Futures Game

Every Option Has Its Strike Price, But Conforto's Spread is Still Undeterminable

Before he hits the open market, both the Mets front office and super-agent Scott Boris need the real Michael Conforto to finally reveal himself.  

The two parties are agreeable to negotiating during the season.  Boras will undoubtedly seek investment as if his client were poised to become one of the premier hitters in baseball.  If you project last season over a full 162 game schedule, Conforto's career trajectory suggests he's heading in the right direction.  

But that's pure speculation.

Insofar as his ultimate valuation, herein lies a situation where it might be in the Mets' best interest for Conforto to indeed exercise his right of free agency.  That's where prices are set in a condition of supply and demand, for those with the wherewithal, that is.  Before committing to making a market, one must ask what Michael Conforto supplies and what kind of demand from Scott Boras is the Mets front office willing to entertain?  Much of that is likely being determined this season, and it is for this main reason I suspect Boras is entertaining open-ended discussions.  He needs to maximize a return before season's end, before needing to put his client up for sale, knowing full well the Mets no longer shop the discount aisle.

Michael Conforto recently turned 28-years old and is now in his seventh major league season with over 2,100 at-bats on his resume.  To date, his career .839 OPS is respectable but far from elite.  Nor is he a career .500 slugger.  That's why like the stock exchange itself, Conforto's bid and ask fluctuates with every pitch of every game.  Said another way, he is yet to firmly establish himself as one of the game's premier investment vehicles largely because he has so far failed to make a clear distinction between being common stock or the preferred variety.

Conforto has not been that type of hitter who places the team on his back and carries them because, the truth is told, those instances have been infrequent.  Why go crazy (and I did) with splits and stats like average with runners in scoring position and the like.  All those statistics demand the same thing: production; how many runs is he generating.  Thus, the following are simply the jists of what is his career highlights.

• As a rookie, there's a stretch spanning Aug. 26 - Sept. 13, where Conforto drove in eleven runs in 17 games.  He then went on to drive in six runs through twelve postseason games.  

• He got off to a hot start the following season with 18 RBI through 21 games in April, including a stretch of ten RBI through the month's last six games.  Otherwise, he was both pedestrian and injured from May through August.  In September, he drove in nine runs in 25 games.

• In 2017 Conforto gets off to a streaky start with 13 RBI in 21 games - he drives in six runs in six games; he drives in five runs over three games in another stretch.  However, in May, he drives in 21 runs in 26 games, including two separate streaks of seven RBI over five games and eight RBI over six games.  In July, he drives in 14 runs over 18 games and twice drives in four runs in one game (seven games apart).  But he downticks in August and sits out in September with an injury.

• The 2018 season goes as such: April, six RBI in 20 games; May, nine RBI in 25 games; June, nine RBI in 26 games; July, 15 RBI in 24 games; August, 14 RBI in 30 games.  In September, Michael Conforto drives in 29 runs in 28 games, including a stretch of 22 RBI over 16 games.

• In 2019 Michael Conforto, for the first time in his career, averages double-digit RBI for every month (April-Sept.)* of the season.  In May, five of his twelve RBI come in one game against the Dodgers.  His best three months were his last three.  In August, he drives in 23 runs in 27 games, including stretches of seven RBI in three games and nine RBI in six games.

• During last year's pandemic shortened season, Conforto drives in 14 runs in 27 August games and likewise drives in 14 runs in September but in eight fewer games, including five RBI in one game and four RBI in another.

• * NOTE: Conforto has no RBI in March/October regular-season games. 

Is this all indicative of more to come where it concerns proficiency, productivity, frequency, and above all, consistency?  Will the cost be commensurate with his performance?

There's a lot of potential equity in his Louisville Slugger.  The question is can Michael tap into it and become elite by Summer or the onset of Fall.  Conforto's extreme likeability is a byproduct of in-house development and fervent team support.  Stuff like that doesn't play in Adam Smith's world of free-market enterprise.  At the end of the day, preferred shareholders are guaranteed a dividend; common shareholders, not so much.  

N.Y. Mets: Opening Night in the Nation's Capital

From the desk: HEAD-BUTTING MR. MET

Northbound and down, loaded up and trucking, 

the Mets are gonna do what they said can't be done.

They've got a long way to go and a short summer to get there. 

They're northbound. Just watch ol' Mr. Met run!

OPENING NIGHT
NEW YORK METS
vs.

WASHINGTON NATIONALS

FROM

Capitol Hill Grounds

With Defensive Shortcomings and Outstanding Bullpen Issues, The Mets Lineup Must Lead The Way 

Even though the Mets last season batted miserably with runners in scoring position, timely hitting this upcoming season is the least of my concerns.  By all indications, the Mets will be featuring a lengthy and potent lineup with few if any dead spots.  With the resumption of a full 162 game schedule, the law of averages will hopefully play a normalizing role as well.

I think we fans agree that Brandon Nimmo and his career .390 OBP is the logical choice for batting leadoff.  However, this season I want to see from him a more aggressive approach at the plate.  Otherwise, on average, Nimmo has scored runs in 49.8% of his 365 career games played.  I anticipate that percentage climbing as the hitters batting behind him should prove problematic for opposing pitchers.

Batting second in my order is Jeff McNeil.  Bat control factored heavily in my decision.  McNeil's and Francisco Lindor's respective rate of strikeouts are separated by mere percentage points.  Lindor strikes out in 15.7% of his at-bats, whereas McNeil fans 13.3% on average.  This might be a hot take, but I believe McNeil is the more traditional and polished slap-style hitter than Lindor, who swings a tad bit more from his heels.  I seek bat control from the second spot, someone adept at hitting the ball to all fields for the sake of advancing runners and not getting doubled-up.

Deep in my heart, I want Dominic Smith batting third.  The old adage says bat your best hitter third, and I believe Dom to be the Mets' most pure hitter.  However, I just cannot fathom Francisco Lindor hitting any further down the lineup.  Lindor's switch-hitting abilities, low strikeouts, and his .500 plus slugging average in three of the last four seasons make him quite the unique number three-hitter.  Dom Smith is better equipped to hit as far down as sixth with limited protection behind him; Lindor not so much.  But in truth, hitting sixth is never what Mets fans envisioned insofar as Francisco Lindor's proper place in the lineup.

Batting cleanup in my lineup is Michael Conforto.  Few hitters in baseball will be afforded the level of lineup protection the Mets will be providing Lindor and Conforto with Pete Alonso and Dom Smith hitting behind them.  Lindor and Conforto should game in, and game out see the best and more hittable pitches being offered.

 

Pete Alonso put the squeeze on Grapefruit League pitchers.  In 16 games and 50 at-bats, the Polar Bear slashed .340/.421./700/1.121, with six doubles, four home runs, and 16 runs batted in.

While Dom Smith offers exceptional protection for the top half of the lineup, he, in turn, will have to protect him either J.D. Davis or Luis Guillorme and James McCann.

McCann has never played in more than 118 games (72.9%) nor achieved 500 plate appearances in any of his five-plus full seasons in the bigs.  However, the Mets appeared to sign him while in the midst of an offensive uptick.  In 2019 with the White Sox, McCann registered career highs in all batting categories for a season that somewhat resembles JT Realmuto-like production.  Last season, he was arguably on track to surpass those numbers.  Not many other eighth batters in baseball can say that.

See pitch, hit pitch.

Time to play ball!

#LGM

N.Y. Mets: The Confounding Michael Conforto Contract Crisis

From the desk: HEAD-BUTTING MR. MET

Steve Cohen 

vs. The Unknown Variable

Mighty Market Makers In Their Natural Habitat

It was the early 1990s, and baseball card fever was high.  I tried to get my hands on as many Todd Van Poppel and Ben McDonald cards as possible.  A kid named Chipper Jones and another pitcher named Darren Dreifort, in whom minor investments were also made.  Mining these prospects and others is how I first became familiar with super-agent Scott Boras.  I was lured in because whenever some highly touted amateur was about to go pro, Boras was on hand as lead and bold new principal on the scene establishing groundbreaking askings and making markets.  Therefore, I simply followed the money.

In the 2014 draft, the Mets selected one of Boris' clients with the tenth overall pick.  His name is Michael Conforto, who, after this upcoming season, becomes an unrestricted free agent.  Conforto is a huge fan favorite.  He is also the team's union representative.  This is to say Boras and Conforto potentially adhere to the same business model emphasizing player and salary advancement.  Chief among their negotiation articles is no retreat and no surrender along the salary front, only forward and upward movement.

As one of, if not the preeminent agent in the game, Boris has extracted billions of dollars out of MLB owner's bank accounts throughout this post-Marvin Miller era.  He firmly urges his clients to exercise their right to free agency.  In numerous instances, clients were encouraged to take the best offer available.  Robinson Cano is a recent example.  The Yankees made him quite the handsome offer, but Cano and his agent instead "settled" for Seattle's far more lucrative offer.  No need to revisit how that worked out, but it certainly speaks of standard operating procedures.

Boris, on occasion, has let clients dictate the location, meaning staying put in the only place they've known and grown to love.  A case in point is David Wright, who the Mets signed to the largest contract issued in team history.  Otherwise, Boris is agreeable only if the terms are relatively on par with current and projected market growth.

But whereas at least some measure of collective unity exists among (agents and) players, the MLB owner barons are their own worst enemy.  They've known this about themselves for 130 years.  This is nothing short of capitalism at work, wherein the open market is designed to set a worthy price.  If Team A is willing to compensate a player more than Team B, selling one's labor is simpler.  Hence, the extinct reserve clause.  Owners through the decades have often been suspected of colluding over certain collective bargaining issues, such as suppressing compensation.  Their problem is that one ever-present maverick owner refusing to play along and upends the buffet tables again and again.

And there's the rub ...

I am fearful of Scott Boris bringing Michael Conforto to the free-agent banquet and having some other organization sweeping in and making an offer they can't refuse (be it on a personal basis or for the betterment of players).  What will burn me more is if it's to a team that knowingly cannot afford him and will seek to trade said player within a few years - a scenario we've seen played out many times before.

Thus, there is no reason for debating Conforto's worth.  That's for Steve Cohen to decide.  He knows all about being a market maker.  But unlike Scott Boris, he lies on the bidder side of this transaction.  You or I could rationalize why Francisco Lindor deserves more money than Michael Conforto.  But Scott Boris can indeed convince some owners (sans Steve Cohen) why Michael Conforto is on the cusp of becoming the best baseball player.  You or I couldn't convince ourselves of that, I believe.

The questions beg to be asked: is Conforto a franchise player or someone who elevates the brand?  More importantly, what owner will value Michael Conforto in their uniform more?  This now seems more about needing to overpay if only to satisfy an increasingly itchy fanbase.

 

What I can say with some certainty is what the union has achieved for its past players laid the groundwork for today's players, which in turn benefits tomorrow's players, and so on.  

Michael Conforto shares an emotional connection with Flushing.  Francisco Lindor, not so much, or not yet.  And whereas Conforto has 2015 stamped on his Mets resume, Lindor's is yet to be written.

Unfortunately, hometown discounts under today's conditions are bad business. 

N.Y. Mets: Sandy Alderson Still Acting Like Smartest One in the Room

From the desk: HEAD-BUTTING MR. MET

Things That Make Go You Go Hmmm ...

The Washington Nationals recently signed Brad Hand to a one-year $10.5 million contract.  We know the Mets certainly could have used him.  Toronto also recently won the George Springer sweepstakes as the Mets refused to up their bid by another $25 million or so.  Then if you rewind back to December, the Mets acted (hastily?) quickly in signing free-agent catcher James McCann to a bargain rate $40 million over four years rather than pursue J.T Realmuto (who remains unsigned) at a higher premium.

HOT TAKE ALERT: This all wreaks of Sandy Alderson's sensibilities while under the Wilpons.

But, Mike, they traded for Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco.

Indeed, but they still need to secure Lindor long-term, and Carlos Carrasco figures to be a fourth starter at best.  I'd love to be wrong about the latter, but I'm just calling it as I see it.

An interesting dichotomy in the making ... the owner says go spend, yet they settle on McCann over Realmuto and do not up their ante for Springer. 🤔 I do not make Bauer a Met at his asking price.

— B'klynTrolleyBlogger (@BTB_MikeII) January 23, 2021

Here's more food for thought: Jacob deGrom's salary spikes to $35 million this year and next, and he holds an opt-out clause after the 2022 season.  The aforementioned Lindor and Michael Conforto are both in need of contract extensions, and the presently suspended Robinson Cano also returns to the checkbook after the 2021 season.

Don't get me wrong.  I'm not complaining ... this is a transient mico matter, or so we hope.

It's just that the narrative since Nov. 6, 2020, coming from ownership, and the follow-up being pursued by Sandy Alderson is somewhat and strangely incongruent.

N.Y. Mets: The Cost of Painting the Town Orange

From the desk: HEAD-BUTTING MR. MET

Painting the Town Orange

The best trades usually are the ones you never see coming.  Congratulations to Sandy Alderson and his newly-assembled front office for their savvy and clandestine execution of one of the bigger blockbuster deals in Mets history.  

In this instance, actions truly spoke louder than words.  This acquisition has the potential of greatly impacting the Mets for many years to come.  Francisco Lindor is a premiere talent entering the prime years of his career.  So, if as a fan you were still somewhat skeptical before, then this should confirm beyond all lingering doubt that a new era is dawning over Flushing.

Since Steve Cohen finalized the New York Mets' purchase on November 6, 2020, Sandy Alderson has since hired general manager Jared Porter, executive Zack Scott, bench coach Dave Jauss, signed reliever Trevor May and catcher James McCann, albeit not necessarily in that order.  All of which was followed by this week's news of the trade for Lindor and Carlos Carrasco and sprinkled with subtle hints that the front office is still not through. 

MONEY STILL MATTERS

I am quite confident the Mets made this trade with the full intention of extending Lindor.  Considering their decision to part with both Amed Rosario and Andres Gimenez, how can they not?  In the meantime, Francisco Lindor, this upcoming season, will earn money previously earmarked for (suspended) Robinson Cano.  So, not only will the Mets be negotiating a new pact with Lindor, Cano's salary returns on the books in 2022 and through the 2023 season.  Jacob deGrom's contract is also ballooning this season and next to $35 million (up from $25 million).  He has an opt-out clause after the 2022 season, but if he stays, deGrom will earn $32.5 million per year with a team option in 2024.  Then, Michael Conforto is to consider who is eligible for free agency after the 2022 season.  With several shortstops becoming available next season, the Mets could easily wait this out and let the market determine a price.  But sign him they must.  All these factors make me question the free-agent pursuits of George Springer and/or pitcher Trevor Bauer.

HISTORY ON METS SIDE

Mets history says they've benefited far more greatly via trades than through free agency.  Keith Hernandez, Gary Carter, Al Leiter, Mike Hampton, Mike Piazza, Carlos Delgado, and even Yoenis Cespedes bear that out.  Even before free agency, Donn Clendenon and Rusty Staub no less prove the point.  Other blockbuster acquisitions of note include those for Frank Viola and Johan Santana.  Of all the Mets players transacted away in procuring said players, only Hubie Brooks dealt to the Expos in exchange for Gary Carter, which caused me to experience any emotional pain.  In any event, such key trades historically have been the Mets' traditional pathway towards the playoffs.

N.Y. Mets: Welcome to Flushing's First Socially Distanced Opening Day in July

From the desk of: HEAD-BUTTING MR. MET

PLAY COVID BALL !!

Late Sunday afternoon; September 29, 2019; the Mets trail the Atlanta Braves 6-5 in the last game of the regular season; with two runners on base and two outs in the eleventh inning Dominic Smith deposits a Grant Dayton offering deep beyond the right field fence giving the Mets a dramatic walk-off 7-6 victory.  After which the off-season starts like any other.  However, with the onset of winter arrises news of a globe-trekking virus heading our way.  By the end of February and early March, the tristate area of New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut, becomes America's epicenter of coronavirus.  By mid-March major league baseball shuts down all activities as state after state begins implementing COVID protocols.  Near 300 days have passed since Dominic Smith's season ending at-bat.  Today, after much haggling and public harangue, MLB is finally set to resume play, albeit operating under conditions and circumstances never before experienced by sports, barring the Spanish Flu of a century ago.  I am on record (Metsian Podcast) saying baseball should have cancelled the season outright, and I stand by it.  Nevertheless, here we are, time to play ball.  I bid health, safety, peace, and a measure of luck, to every player, coach, manager ... every single person involved with the execution of this upcoming season, and likewise to respective families.

deGROM AND MATZ, THEN PRAY FOR RAIN

Sadly, I do not foresee the Mets being top contenders in the absence of strong performances first and foremost from Steven Matz, and Marcus Stroman second.

Welcome to the 2020 season?  Or should I say welcome to the new, and still transient normal?

In any event, here's something you'll find quite familiar: The Mets have problems.

The much anticipated "Five Hurlers of the Metropolis" were never able to join forces and become the super heroes we thought they'd be.  Injury and overall front office negligence are largely to blame.  The dream rotation of Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler, Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz, and Jacob deGrom, unfortunately fail to synchronize their talents for any substantial length of time.  Thus the opposition never fully experiences what fans imagine to be the rotation's full wrath.  Instead, the rotation frustratingly is a perpetual revolving door of those returning from surgery with those requiring surgery, and other like physical issues.  Jacob deGrom aside, you might loosely file what transpires since 2015 as a Generation-K type Redux.  But at least we get a National League pennant out of these guys - most of them - so there's that.

"FIVE HURLERS OF THE METROPOLIS"

Matt Harvey ~ Zack Wheeler ~ Jacob deGrom ~ Noah Syndergaard ~ Steven Matz

2012 - Harvey

2013 - Harvey; Wheeler

2014 - Harvey; Wheeler; deGrom

2015 - Harvey; Wheeler; deGrom; Syndergaard; Matz

2016 - Harvey; Wheeler; deGrom; Syndergaard; Matz

2017 - Harvey; Wheeler; deGrom; Syndergaard; Matz

2018 - x-Harvey; Wheeler; deGrom; Syndergaard; Matz

2019 - x-Harvey; Wheeler; deGrom; Syndergaard; Matz; Stroman

2020 - x-Harvey; x-Wheeler; deGrom; Syndergaard; Matz; Stroman; Porcello; Wacha

I enter this COVIDIAN compromised 2020 regular season with only a small fraction of the confidence I once harbored regarding this team's rotational strength.  Of course Jacob deGrom is the great one, winner of back-to-back Cy Young awards.  He takes the ball on Friday for Game One of sixty.  But who and/or what follows deGrom is very troublesome for me.

I'm not at all pleased Zack Wheeler is a member of the Philadelphia Phillies.  Wheeler in March 2019 made it very clear he welcomed free agency and that the Mets would need to meet his price.  I was hoping against hope they would re-sign him.  Instead the front office let the regular season play out and apparently were dissatisfied with Wheeler's performance.  That's the soft core version of the story.  The harder, colder truth, as we well know, ownership is flat broke.  After all, Zack posted a fair 3.96 ERA and 1.259 WHiP through 195.1 innings pitched.  Now 30-years old, I believe Wheeler's arm is finally sound and that his best days are still ahead.  Over the last two seasons he's made 60 starts with 374 strikeouts through 377.2 innings pitched.  Fangraphs had his 2018 velocity pegged at 95-mph, while last year's velocity remained steady at 96-mph.  Be that as it may the Mets make him no offer.  Wheeler winds up signing with Philadelphia for $118 million over five seasons.  The inner general manager within me would have been agreeable to a $100 million offer, and chewing him down from the other $18 million.  But I certainly would not have let that stop me.  I also have a hunch Wheeler and his agent, just for sake of staying in NYC, would have been amenable to a small compromise.  Lastly, Zack Wheeler I feel is/was better than any of the available replacements, namely Rick Porcello and Michael Wacha.  For these reasons alone I believe the Mets enter 2020 with a weakened rotation - period, exclamation point.

Noah Syndergaard ((( 😔 ))) as we know is out due to Tommy John surgery/recovery.  Who didn't see that coming..?

But here's something whereon Brodie Van Wagenen needs to keep his eyes fixed.  Marcus Stroman, who talks a real good game, is presently out with a calf injury which is an ailment BVW must consider within the context of a 60-game season.  True calf injuries do not heal well; they're habitually time consuming; and without extensive rest they tend to nag for entire seasons.

I'm hopeful Rick Porcello will pitch effectively but I'm only somewhat confident he will.  I like Rick Porcello, I really do.  I'm (also) a Red Sox fan since the mid 1970's.  Back then outside of the World Series inter-league play is nonexistent.  Having a favorite American League team is a non-issue.  And the answer to your next question .. NO .. I was in no way conflicted in 1986, for I am an orange/blue bleeding Mets fan.  Back to the matter at hand: I have a lot of respect for Rick's body of work with Boston.  The man exuded cool, calm, and clutch.  I'm just not sure that success follows him to Flushing.  His best seasons are 2014 when he posts a 3.43 ERA and 1.231 WHiP, and his Cy Young award winning 2016 campaign when posts a league best 22-4 record, with a 3.15 ERA, and fine 1.001 WHiP.   But that's six and four years ago respectively.  Outside of a 3.96 ERA during his rookie season, at no other time during his eleven year career does his season ERA dip below four.  He also has yielded more hits than innings pitched in two of his last three seasons.  Essentially what Mets fans need most from Rick Porcello is a classic baseball comeback season.  To his credit he is a mature, poised, intelligent 30-year old craftsman.  If anyone can bounce back, he can.  However, anything resembling his last three seasons with Boston simply will not do.

I have much less, or little to no confidence in Michael Wacha as a starter.  He and Porcello during the off-season are originally signed to be complimentary depth pitchers, and now intense pressure is suddenly being pumped into both their respective right arms.  Cross your fingers in the hope all their gaskets are sealed tight.  Otherwise, this rotation is gonna leak hits, runs, deficits, and losses, all over the place.

Alas Steven Matz is the Mets X factor.  The day has come .. the hour is near .. this must be the season when Steven Matz seizes the role of Number Two behind Jacob deGrom.  The Mets situation necessitates it.  If they are to compete in a 60-game season against modified opponents such as the Yankees and Rays, along with fellow N.L. East members, they'll need an effective and reliable one-two punch.  The recently turned 29-year old Matz is due for a breakout season, or not.  A veteran of four full seasons in the majors, he owns a career 4.05 ERA through 103 appearances and 101 career starts.  He is coming off back to back seasons of at least thirty starts, while 2019 is the first time he achieves double digit wins.  However, since 2016 when he posts a 3.40 ERA in 132.1 innings pitched, his ERA has since failed to dip below four.  He additionally has yet to pitch 200 innings in a single season.  Therefore I say he needs to make this season his line of demarcation.  Will he mature and elevate as a pitcher and craftsman, or not?

THREE ALARM FIRE STILL RAGES

Edwin Diaz is 26-years old and a veteran of four full major league seasons, during which he's averaged 67 innings per season.  Therefore his shelf life is far from approaching its expiration date.  But 15 home runs in 58 innings pitched?  Not to mention all 15 home runs are surrendered in the ninth inning thus setting a new major league record.  His 99 strikeouts and 15.4 K/9 average are outstanding.  No arguing that.  But a 2-7 record, seven blown saves, a 5.59 ERA, 4.51 FIP, and 1.379 WHiP, are indefensible.  His fastball and change-up are not necessarily the issue.  His slider, however, often resembled a cement mixer, and it cost the Mets a huge price in the standings.

FLUSHING's CORE FOUR?

Pete Alonso; Michael Conforto; Amed Rosario; Jeff McNeil: is this a core four capable of elevating the Mets to higher ground?  Last season was certainly a good start.  Unfortunately, the upcoming 2020 season in and of itself still leaves us with too small a sample size.  And so the question remains to be answered; collective next level performance remains to be seen.  For now the best we can do is monitor the competition and paint a game by game picture until a clearer vision materializes.

LET'S GO METS

ICYMI

Wednesday, July 21, 2020

GUEST

Mets Beat Writer for NEWSDAY, 

Tim Healey

!!!!! WEAR A FREAKIN MASK !!!!!

Last Chance For Gas On Another Metsian Podcast

From the desk of: HEAD-BUTTING MR. MET

Ya Gotta Believe,

But For How Long?

A METSIAN PODCAST

with SAM, RICH, and MIKE

FEATURING

Sam and I minus Rich

@THE_SamMaxwell     @BTB_MikeII     @MetFanRich

sixty-eight minutes

STUFF

LAST TWELVE GAMES: ATL; CHI; PHI; WAS

NEXT TEN GAMES: PHI; ARZ; LAD

Pete Alonso ~ Wilson Ramos ~ Michael Conforto ~ Robinson Cano

Edwin Diaz ~ Jeurys Familia ~ Paul Seward

Noah Syndergaard ~ Steven Matz ~ Zack Wheeler

Brooklyn Cyclones ~ Edgardo Alfonzo ~ Jed Lowrie ~ Syracuse Mets

Jerry Koosman ~ Ed Lynch ~ Mickey Callaway

Ya Gotta Believe ~ and so much more!

#LGM

N.Y. Mets: Twelve Games of Resilient Dreck

From the desk of: HEAD-BUTTING MR. MET

LAST GASP AT THE FLUSHING CORRAL

PHILADELPHIA  ~  ARIZONA  ~  LOS ANGELES

If the last 12 games didn't kill them, perhaps the next stretch of ten will.  The Mets are coming home to Flushing where they'll host a return series against the Phillies.  After which they play a red hot Diamondbacks team that is 3.5 games back of the second wild card and 8-2 over their last ten.  The Mets home-stand concludes with three games against the west leading Dodgers.

To be fair, I'll trend back one month.  The Mets are 15-12 since Monday, Aug. 5, when they regain .500 with a victory over the Miami Marlins.  But the real odyssey begins promptly after sweeping the Cleveland Indians.  Even after Wednesday afternoon's YouTube victory over the Nationals, the Mets are just 4-8 over their last four series against Atlanta, Chicago, Philadelphia, and Washington.  These were twelve head to head wild card impacting confrontations I thought would surely define the Mets season.  Throughout this stretch we witness their full repertoire of good, bad, and repulsive play.  Yet they're 4-2 over their last six and still loitering 4.5 games back of the second wild card spot with 23 games left in the season.

Then there's the matter of Tuesday's meltdown.  The Mets are on top of the free world upon arresting a 10-6 lead with five runs in the top of the ninth at Washington.  But Paul Sewald, Luis Avilan, and Edwin Diaz, ponderously give it all back surrendering seven runs in the bottom half of the frame en route to a gut wrenching 11-10 loss.

If we learned anything over these last twelve games is that when the offense is clicking they win convincingly, and when they're not they lose miserably.  Problem is they lay in a coma for six straight games until reanimating at Philadelphia.

THE DIRTY DOZEN

LAST TWELVE GAMES

4-8 (.333)

vs. ATLANTA / CHICAGO

During their six game losing streak against Atlanta and Chicago the Mets hit .224 (49 for 219); with 14 walks; 49 strikeouts; 44  LOB; and .146 (7 for 48) w/RiSP.  They hit seven home runs in six games; only two come with runners on base for ten generated runs.  The Mets average just 2.83 runs per game against the Braves and Cubs.

vs. PHILADELPHIA

Mets win two of three against Philadelphia Phillies hit .293 (29 for 99); with ten walks; 20 strikeouts; 22 LOB; and .333 (20 for 60) w/RiSP.  They hit four home runs; three come with men on base for a net eight generated runs.  The Mets average 6.3 runs per game against the Phillies.

vs. WASHINGTON

Mets win two of three against Washington Nationals hitting .318 (35 for 110); with 14 walks; 21 strikeouts; 19 LOB; and .375 (12 for 32) w/RiSP.  They hit eight home runs; four come with runners on base for a net 13 generated runs.  The Mets average 8.3 runs per game against the Nationals.

• In four wins they hit .426 (49 for 115); with 18 walks; 29 strikeouts; 35 LOB; and .333 (18 for 54) w/RiSP.
• In eight loses they hit .226 (64 for 283); with 20 walks; 61 strikeouts; 50 LOB; and .244 (21 for 86) w/RiSP.
• GRAND TOTAL 12 Games: .264 (113-428); with 38 walks; 90 strikeouts; 85 LOB; and .278 (39 for 140) w/RiSP.

THE GOOD, THE BAD, AND UGLY ...

The Mets single season home run king continues resetting his own bar.  On Aug. 24 against the Atlanta Braves at Citi Field Pete Alonso breaks the Mets franchise record of 41 home runs formerly shared by Todd Hundley and Carlos Beltran.  By close of business Wednesday he is up to 45 home runs and counting.  Alonso has played in all but two of the Mets 139 games to date, and is presently slashing .268/.368/.591/.959, with 27 doubles, 45 home runs, and 105 runs batted in (or net 60 RBI minus home runs).  He likewise has smashed any and all Mets and MLB rookie related home run milestones in record setting time.  In fact, exactly a month ago is when he hit the first of four home runs in as many games against the Marlins and Nationals.  More than half of his 136 hits have been for extra-bases and 60% of those have gone for home runs.

Wilson Ramos' 26-game hitting streak comes to an end Wednesday afternoon at Washington.  The streak begins on Aug. 3 at Pittsburgh where Ramos goes 4 for 5 with a double, home run, and six runs batted in.  He twice extends his streak as a pinch-hitter.  During the streak he bats .430 (43 for 100) with seven doubles, three home runs, and 18 runs batted in.  For the season Wilson Ramos is slashing .295/.357/.424/.781, with 28 extra-base hits and 67 runs batted in (or net 54 RBI minus home runs which is only six less than Alonso in 92 less at-bats).

Steven Matz is 3-1 with a no decision in his last five starts with a 2.10 ERA and 1.26 WHiP, allowing just seven walks and fanning 31 through 30 innings pitched.  He has averaged 24 batters faced over six innings per start, and lowered his ERA 0.54 points over that time down to a more respectable 4.04 mark.

Michael Conforto hit his career tying 28th home run of the season on Aug. 30 at Philadelphia.  Over these crucial last 12 games he batted .276 (13 for 47), with three doubles, one home run, and four runs batted in.  In eight of those game and batted .182 (2 for 11) with RiSP.

Through the course of 55 games Jeurys Familia's ERA (5.96) has yet to dip below five all season.  He has so far yielded 49 hits and 41 walks through 49 innings pitched.  After a legitimately effective month of August, Familia in his two most recent appearances has yielded five earned runs on four hits and four walks in just 1.2 innings pitched.  On Wednesday the Mets were able to survive Familia, but Tuesday not so much.