N.Y. Mets: Ongoing Ninth Inning Fire Rages On

From the desk of: HEAD-BUTTING MR. MET

WILL THE METS REAL FIREMAN PLEASE STEP UP

One strike away from their second straight victory to begin the season, and ...

 ( ( ( (    POOF!  ) ) ) )

... another Edwin Diaz pitch irretrievably disappears over the fence.

Manager Rojas spends the lead-up making timely substitutions and smartly reconfiguring his defense.  In fact, the freshman Rojas sets the stage rather well.  Starter Steven Matz exits on the winning side of a 2-1 contest after six innings and 93 pitches thrown, with 58 (62%) going for strikes.  After which the trio of Jeurys Familia, Dellin Betances, and Justin Wilson, join together for two scoreless innings, allowing just two hits and fanning a pair.

Enter Edwin Diaz; it's the ninth inning.  With two outs and the Mets clinging to a slim 2-1 lead, he gets two strikes on Atlanta designated hitter Marcell Ozuna.  Then comes the fatal pitch, belt high and flat, on the outside portion of the plate, just begging to be hit the other way by a right handed batter.  And Ozuna does just that, sending Diaz' offering high beyond the reach of Michael Conforto, and over the right field fence - game tied.  The Mets eventually lose in the tenth inning, but the damage is already done (MLB's new extra inning rules be damned).

Diaz last year pitches 58 innings and yields fifteen home runs all in the ninth inning, which sets a new MLB record previously established by Francisco Rodriguez.  Now with the 2020 season underway, Edwin appears in each of the Mets first two games.  Therefore, since arriving at Flushing he has now pitched 60 innings, surrendered sixteen home runs, all in the ninth inning.  It bears repeating: eight blown saves; seven losses, sixteen home runs allowed in just 60 innings pitched, with a 5.37 ERA and 1.379 WHiP, over 68 overall appearances as a Met.  Edwin Diaz is 26-years old and a veteran of four full major league seasons, during which he's averaged 67 innings per season.  Therefore, his arm is far from approaching its expiration date.  His 103 strikeouts and 15.4 K/9 average are perhaps his best and only defense.  He strikes out two on Opening Day, and strikes out two more on Saturday before his run in with Ozuna.  But what good is that?

Granted this is only game two of the season, but - and it's a big but - there remains only 58 games left to play.  Therefore, one must question how much longer can the Mets afford to hand over ninth inning responsibilities to a consistently ineffective Edwin Diaz.

FIREMAN WANTED: INQUIRE WITHIN

In this compromised 60-game season, time is of the essence.  The responsibility of rethinking the ninth inning now falls on Luis Rojas.  Hunter Strickland raised some eyebrows during Summer Camp, but on Saturday had fans watching at home turning and looking the other way.  He incurs the loss upon yielding three runs, two earned, in just one-third of an inning pitched.  But the likes of Seth Lugo, Jeurys Familia, Justin Wilson, Dellin Betances, along with Edwin Diaz, should perhaps begin taking on a greater collective role insofar as closing out the ninth inning.

Steven Matz is the overlooked victim in all this.  He allows just one earned run on a mere two hits with one walk, and seven strikeouts, but for all his efforts unfortunately walks away with a no decision.

N.Y. Mets: La Potencia's Return is a Big Hit

From the desk of: HEAD-BUTTING MR. MET

OPENING DAY 

⇨ IN JULY ⇦

GAME ONE

BRAVES  0

METS       1

At the very least, with everything going on, Friday's game is historic.  Otherwise there's something about the Mets and Opening Day that always gets fans feeling all warm, orange, blue, and fuzzy.  However, it usually doesn't take long after that before we realize it's the hazy, hot, and humid, New York City summer that we're really experiencing.  Otherwise winning is really cool, especially on Opening Day.  It is an event unto itself, where on the one hand 50,000 fans assemble for a common cause, yet a given fan's individual experience is completely subjective.  Of course, you can say that about any games.  But in life they say be first or be the best.  Sometimes Opening Day is both.  Like Friday's opener against the rival Atlanta Braves ...

LED BY JACOB deGROM, METS WHITEWASH BRAVES

If you like pitching duels, you got treated to one on Opening Day.  Couldn't ask for more.  With the understanding Jacob deGrom recently experienced some back discomfort, I do not begrudge freshman manager Luis Rojas for taking deGrom out when he does.  The Grominator is dominant out of the gate throwing 100-mph fastballs en route to a scoreless one-hit effort through five innings with eight strikeouts.  He throws 72 pitches with 48 (66%) going for strikes.  But alas he is awarded the chronic no decision.  Seth Lugo pitches two scoreless innings of one-hit ball with three strikeouts for the victory.  After which Justin Wilson and Edwin Diaz preserve the shutout.  Edwin Diaz faces four batters in the ninth, throwing thirteen pitches with eight going for strikes.  He walks one and fans two en route to his first save.  The Mets four pitchers join together on a three-hit whitewashing of the Atlanta Braves with fifteen strikeouts and just two walks.

Outside of one errant pitch placed center mass of home plate, Atlanta pitching is no less effective.  Starter Mike Soroka and three relievers limit the Mets to just six hits and no walks with four strikeouts.  One pitch is all it takes.  The comeback kid himself, Yoenis Cespedes, deposits a Soroka offering deep into the empty left field seats.  It's Yo's first home run in over two years, and it makes all the difference in Friday afternoon's opener at Citi Field.

La Potencia is back!

Oh ... and so much for social distancing in the dugout.

N.Y. Mets: Can't Save Themselves From The Dog Days of Spring

From the desk of: HEAD-BUTTING MR. MET

GATES CLOSED

The Regular Season is Now a Matter of Record.  

So What Happened?

The Mets played exactly 23 meaningful games in September.  Ironically a victory over the Miami Marlins is their last, as the competition squeezes them out of post-season contention at the 158 game mark.  They finish the regular season in third place, eleven games back of first, and three games out of the wild card race.  With an 86-76 (.531) record the Mets at least assure themselves of their first winning season in three years.  

While many if not most fans and media point to the Mets 27 blown saves as the main reason why they failed to qualify for the playoffs, there's also something to be said for what is becoming a habitual Spring swoon.  From May 15 through the end of June the Mets post an 18-27 record featuring five and seven game losing streaks respectively.  By July 5 they are ten games under .500 sporting a 40-50 record.  It is during this dreadful two month period that a great majority of this season's blown saves occur.

THE DOG DAYS of SPRING

• May/June 2015:  25-30 (.454); 65-42 (.607) rest of season.
• May/June 2016:  26-30 (.464); 61-45 (.575) rest of season.
• May/June 2017:  27-28 (.491); 43-64 (.402) rest of season.
• May/June 2018:  15-39 (.278); 62-46 (.574) rest of season.
• May/June 2019:  23-33 (.411); 63-43 (.594) rest of season.

Last season with the Mariners Edwin Diaz posts a 1.96 ERA through 73.1 innings pitched.  He converts a major league best 57 of 61 save opportunities for a 93% success rate with four blown saves. In his first season with the Mets he converts 26 of 33 save opportunities for a 79% success rate with seven blown saves.  He yields a career high 15 home runs skyrocketing his ERA upwards of 5.59 in 58.0 innings pitched.  Since Diaz led the Mets in blown saves, he naturally bears the brunt of criticism.  But make no mistake, New York's bullpen inefficiencies were a collective effort.  Edwin Diaz accounts for 26% of all Mets blown saves - seven for Diaz and 20 blown saves for everyone else.  That begs the question: who is responsible for blowing the other 74% of save opportunities?

THE CULPRITS

• Edwin Diaz: (26/33) 79% conversions; 7 blown saves.
• Drew Gagnon/Wilmer Font/Brad Brach/Tyler Bashlor: (0/6) 0% conversions; 6 blown saves.
• Seth Lugo: (6/11) 54% conversions; 5 blown saves.
• Robert Gsellman: (1/5) 20% conversions; 4 blown saves.
• Jeurys Familia: (0/4) 0% conversions; 4 blown saves.
• Justin Wilson: (4/5) 80% conversions; 1 blown save.
• Paul Sewald: (1/1) 100% conversions; 0 blown saves.

There are still another 13 relief pitchers so far unmentioned here whom this past season appeared out of the Mets bullpen.  Outside of Luis Avilan, very few if any are worth mentioning.  However, none were put into save situations.

And what of the competition?  How are they trending?

San Diego's 32-year old Kirby Yates comes out of nowhere to post a National League leading 44 saves, with a 93% conversion rate, and only three blown saves.  Alas the Padres are not in the playoffs.  Also home watching TV are Cincinnati's Raisel Iglesias who posts 34 saves, with an 85% conversion rate and six blown saves, and San Francisco's Will Smith who likewise posts 34 saves with an 89% conversion rate and only four blown saves.  Rounding out the National League's top five closers, Milwaukee's Josh Harder finishes second with 37 saves, off an 84% conversion rate with seven blown saves.  L.A.'s Kenley Jansen saves 33 games with an 80% conversion rate and eight blown saves.

National League Playoff Qualifiers

• Atlanta Braves: 66% conversions; 23 blown saves.
• St. Louis Cardinals: 71% conversions; 21 blown saves.
• Los Angeles Dodgers: 60% conversions; 29 blown saves.
• Washington Nationals: 58% conversions; 29 blown saves.
• Milwaukee Brewers: 64% conversions; 28 blown saves.

• National League Averaage: 61.4% conversions; 25 blown saves.
• NEW YORK METS: (38/65) 58% CONVERSIONS; 27 BLOWN SAVES.

American League Playoff Qualifiers

• N.Y. Yankees: 63% conversions; 28 blown saves.
• Houston Astros: 70% conversions; 20 blown saves.
• Minnesota Twins: 69% conversions; 22 blown saves.
• Oakland A's: 59% conversions; 31 blown saves.
• Tampa Bay Rays: 63% conversions; 27 blown saves.

Every team blows saves.  But in the National League only the Mets, Nationals, Cubs, Pirates, Rockies, and Marlins, fail to convert at least 60% of their opportunities.  Washington survives the wild card game.  In the American League, Oakland does not.  

Make of it what you will.

N.Y. Mets: The Bullpen Strikes Back

From the desk of:  HEAD-BUTTING MR. MET

The Bullpen's Back and You're Gonna Be In Trouble

It's no coincidence that since the return of relievers Luis Avilan and Justin Wilson, it's not just Seth Lugo whom appears back in top form.  The bullpen and pitching staff as a whole are excelling and the Mets are surging as a result.

Avilan was sporting a 9.28 ERA when on May 3 he succumbed to injury.  He misses the rest of May and all of June.  Justin Wilson's ERA stood at 4.82 when on May 6 he too is felled by injury.  Like Avilan, Justin Wilson misses the rest of May and all of June.  By the time both relievers go missing the Mets own a 16-19 record.  Without them the Mets go on to win 12 of their remaining 22 games in May, but lose 18 of 28 games in June dropping their record to 26-37 for the season.

On May 7, Seth Lugo owns a 3.13 ERA.  In the absence of Avilan and Wilson his ERA balloons to a 3.60 mark.  In June Lugo yields seven earned runs on 15 hits with a 4.84 ERA and three blown saves over ten appearances and 13 innings pitched.

Justin Wilson returns on July 2 and has since lowered his ERA to a 2.86 mark.  Luis Avilan returns on July 5 and has since lowered his ERA to a 5.12 mark.  In turn Seth Lugo has lowered his ERA from 3.51 at the start of July down to 2.73 by month's end.  As of Sunday he owns a 2.65 ERA through 45 appearances.

Since July 3 even Jeurys Familia has lowered his ERA by more than a full point.

The bullpen owns a 3.20 ERA since the all-star break, and the pitching staff as a whole owns a 2.70 ERA while in the midst of this Amazin' 15-1 run.

N.Y. Mets: Giving Blown Saves a Name

From the desk of:  HEAD-BUTTING MR. MET

MY KINGDOM FOR A SAVE

We know the Mets are blowing half their save opportunities.  Flushing is up in arms about it.  But simply blaming "the bullpen" is no longer good enough.  It's time to name names.

While I'm not a big fan of WAR, I'm not necessarily averse to it.  That said, Edwin Diaz' -0.4 WAR is terrible.  His overall numbers are quite unsightly for a closer but there's a weak argument to be made he is still doing his job.  Diaz is 1-6 with a 5.50 ERA and a 1.46 WHiP.  He has so far yielded 39 hits, including seven home runs, and issued eleven walks though 34.1 innings pitched.  Compared to last season his rate of line drives and fly balls are up and his rate of ground balls is down.  He is throwing his fastball slightly more than last season and in turn is throwing his slider less.  Yet his velocity appears unchanged (all) according to Fangraphs.  Diaz naturally leads the Mets with 23 save opportunities and to date has converted 19 (83%) of them.  His four blown saves account for 19% of all Mets blown saves this season.

Mickey Callaway to date has summoned 22 other pitchers from the bullpen including starters Steven Matz and Jason Vargas.  But only six of them are ever put into save situations.  Justin Wilson, recovering from injury, converts his lone save opportunity of the season.  Drew Gagnon accounts for one blown save.  However the trio of Seth Lugo, Tyler Bashlor, and Jeurys Famila, are 0 for 11 in save opportunities which accounts for 52% of all Mets blown saves.

At least Gsellman has converted one save through five opportunities.  But if we lump together Seth Lugo, Robert Gsellman, Tyler Bashlor, and Jeurys Familia, they've combined on 17 save opportunities but just two save conversions.  That's a rate of 88% blown saves or a 12% conversion rate - pick your poison.

• Seth Lugo - 3.35 ERA; 4 BS
• Robert Gsellman - 5.09 ERA; 4 BS
• Tyler Bashlor - 5.40 ERA; 3 BS
• Jeurys Familia - 7.59 ERA; 4 BS
• Edwin Diaz - 5.50 ERA; 4 BS

But what of the competition?

San Diego leads the National League with 51 save opportunities and a league high 35 (68%) save conversions.  The Mets are second with 42 save opportunities, but lead the league with 21 (50%) blown saves.  The league average is 65% conversion rate.  San Francisco has had the least amount of save opportunities, yet lead the National League with an 84% conversion rate; Cincinnati is second with a 73% conversion rate; Milwaukee is third in the National League with a 72% success rate.  Even Miami is converting saves at a rate of 71% but have created the second least opportunities for themselves.  Among the Mets other division competitors Atlanta is converting 61% of save opportunities, Washington is converting at a 56% rate, and the Phillies are one of five National League teams converting at least 70% of their opportunities.

The Mets are not one of them.

In the meantime, Brodie says there's enough talent in place, and 72 games left in the season for the bullpen to prove their mettle.

That is all ...

• NYM Baseball Reference