N.Y. Mets: Brodie Van Wagenen Launches Winter Offensive

From the desk of:  HEAD-BUTTING MR. MET

That's One Small Step for Brodie; One Giant Risk for Metskind

New York Mets: For better or worse, Brodie Van Wagenen's mission to compete now while also building a contender for the future has just taken a bold giant leap forward.

I cringed with disgust upon first hearing about the rumored trade to acquire Robinson Cano; a purely emotional response.  Several days have since passed, allowing me to further assess one of the more major trades of impact negotiated in team history.  Suffice to say my opinion has softened slightly although my overriding impression remains mixed at best.  Partly because the Mariners were motivated by desperation insofar as completing a trade and therefore were not dealing from a position of strength.  As such, I feel the Mets failed to effectively and fully exert an apparent and considerable advantage in leverage.


THE DEAL:

• New York Mets get Robinson Cano, Edwin Diaz, and $20 million.
• Seattle Mariners get Jay Bruce, Anthony Swarzak, Justin Dunn, Jarred Kelenic, Gerson Bautista.

Emotional me has no interest in a 36-year old slugging second baseman in a non-DH league, who is still owed $120 million over the next five seasons, and coming off a PED suspension.  The latter puts his true rate of physical decline into legitimate question.  In his first four years with Seattle, he averaged 156 games per season, and in 2016 started 161 games as a 33-year old.  The former user now in his late 30's comes to Queens where the Mets, unrealistic as it may seem, are expecting him to maintain a similar level of availability through and beyond his 40th birthday.  In Cano's defense, he seldom DH'd for the Mariners, and played very well last season after returning from suspension.  But then why wouldn't he look fresh considering he was out most of the season ...

If available and healthy, Robinson Can easily becomes the most accomplished hitter in the Mets lineup.  But for how long?  Now that Cano's past has caught up with him, he becomes suddenly accountable to Father Time.  Great potential exists for rapid decline.  Otherwise, Cano owns a career slash of .304/.355/.493 over 14 seasons.  He batted .300+ in seven of nine seasons with the Yankees.  He topped .300 for the eighth time during his first season with the Mariners, but then averaged .289 over his next three seasons.  In 2018 he once again achieved a .303 mark albeit in 310 at-bats.  He is averaging 24 home runs and 96 RBI through his career, and last year hit ten home runs with 50 RBI in just 80 games played.  In this particular instance, consistency speaks for itself.

If we set the length of Cano's remaining contract aside, the actual money involved becomes less of an issue, and actually quite manageable.  The $28 million formerly owed to Jay Bruce, and $8.5 million owed to Anthony Swarzak, now get added to the incoming $20 million check from the Mariners.  Subtract those monies from the $120 million owed Cano, and the Mets are on the hook for roughly $12.7 million per season.  That's reasonable, and in truth, I'm overjoyed someone took Jay Bruce and Swarzak off the Mets hands.  For that, I am truly thankful.

With a little more insistence, I'm sure Wagenen could have shoved Todd Frazier down their throats as well.

I digress ...

Of course, Edwin Diaz served as the hook.  Since the Mariners are in full blown rebuild, it made no sense retaining a top flight closer with obvious trade value.  He was an easy throw-in for the Mariners for as long as the Mets were removing Cano's prohibitive contract from their books.  In turn, the Mets receive a young, elite closer, with multiple years of organizational control.  No better reliever presently exists on the free agent market ... not at this age, and certainly not at this price.  Diaz is nothing short of a very fine acquisition.

But the true cost to the Mets remains to be seen.  We'll find out if and when prospects Justin Dunn, Jarred Kelenic, and Gerson Bautista ever become major league players.  It's this aspect that has many Mets fans up in arms.  Numerous members of the media and fans alike feel as if the Mets surrendered too many prospects, highly rated Justin Dunn and Jarred Kelenic specifically.  I myself am torn about the Mets parting with both.  Again, the Mets had all the leverage and should have done more to steer Seattle clear of one or the other.

No one can predict the future.  Therefore, dealing with prospects, in a manner of speaking, is no different than gambling: sometimes you roll sevens, and sometimes you crap out.  Too many prospects throughout Mets history have been labeled can't miss only to flame out like a bottle rocket: Mike Vail; Fernando Martinez; Lastings Milledge; Alex Ochoa; Generation-K; et al.  And it's not like the Mets are presently experiencing great success with recent top round draft selections.

In fact, history shows where it concerns the past acquisitions of Keith Hernandez, Gary Carter, Frank Viola; Mike Piazza; Johan Santana; etc.; dealing prospects benefited the Mets considerably in most if not all instances.  Breaking the bank for Cano is clearly a win now transaction that just may work.  And odds are Brodie Van Wagenen may reveal another trick from under his sleeve before he's through. 

Perhaps it's we fans who need to revisit and more intensely study the Mets farm system and realize there's no future in it.  That's what Omar Minaya and newly hired Allard Baird (brilliant move) are here to correct.  So maybe Van Wagenen is on to something after all.  In the context of winning now, recall last season how the Mets lineup lost its number three, four, and five hitters.  It devastated their summer, and ultimately their season.  Otherwise, they were a competitive lot for at least four of six months. 

Enter Robinson Cano, at an average annual cost of $12.7 million a season.

Losing Justin Dunn is a tough pill to swallow. 

Sensible and pragmatic me nevertheless gives this trade a stamp of approval.