Sunday, November 25, 2018

PIGSKIN 2018: Week Twelve

Week Twelve

Week Eleven
Thanksgiving Day

Week Eleven Record:  4-7
Thanksgiving Day:  2-1
Overall Record:  60-77-5
Schmear of the Week:  5-6
Bagels in the Basket:  -27

  • Since beginning the season 0-3, the AFC South leading Texans have gone 7-0.
  • Jerry Jones and his brilliant general manager seized first place of the weak NFC East away from the fading D.C. Hogs.
  • Did not envision by Week Twelve NFC North leading Bears would be one of three NFC teams with 300+ points scored.
  • What if every game was like last week's Chiefs/Rams game?   Not so fun anymore ... aye?
  • No Surprise: AFC East leading Patriots have committed the least penalties in the NFL..!
  • The .500 club in second place with respective 5-5 records: Miami, Baltimore; Cincinnati; Indianapolis; Tennessee; Seattle.
  • Marcus Mariota playing a week after suffering a stinger?  Surely someone will be second guessing that.
  • San Darnold missing his second straight game.

Well wishes to Mike Ditka, recovering from a mild heart-attack.
Bob McNair, founder/owner of the Houston Texans, passed away.

Friday Line ~ NYDN

Giants +6 (EAGLES)
Back in September, no one anticipated this game being a battle between dregs of the NFC East.  That said, more false hope is heading the Giants way.  I'm reluctantly throwing my own team of rooting interest a bone ... only because the Eagles secondary is so bad.  Philly is faced between defending Barkley or Beckham; don't think they can successfully account at this very moment for both.
WIN; 25-22 Eagles

Patriots -9 1/2 (JETS)
Welcome to the Tiger Balm Bowl featuring 41-yr old Tom Brady vs. 39-yr old Josh McCown.  The Jets are coming off a shameful performance against Bills; the Patriots are coming off a no-less embarrassing loss against the Titans.  Gronk may be pondering his retirement, but he'll be just fine this Sunday.  Brady should have a full compliment of offensive weapons back on the field.  And everyone knows what happens when Belichick has two weeks to prepare.  Meanwhile, Todd Bowles is on the hot seat.  The Jets have no pass rush worthy of Brady's consideration.  Playing without Sam Darnold only worsens the situation.
WIN; 27-13 Patriots

Jaguars -3 (BILLS)
Jeez ... what's a degenerate gambler to do?  The Jags are losers of six straight in which they've averaged a mere 14.6 points per game.  The Bill are 2-4 over the same stretch, in which they averaged just 9.2 ppg through the first five games, then exploded last week for 41-points against the Jets.  I repeat, that came against the Jets.  There's no disputing JAX has the better defense.
LOSS; 24-21 Bills

Raiders +11 (RAVENS)
After losing three straight tough games, the Ravens last week finally squeaked by the Bengals, over which span they allowed exactly 100 points.  After Buffalo, the Raiders this season have scored the least points in the AFC.  Joe Flacco's absence, however, will allow (a still capable albeit very pissed off) Derek Carr and the Raiders to stay within covering range.
Loss; 34-17 Ravens

BUCS -3 1/2 (49ers)
ALERT!! The Bucs average more total yards (458.5) per game than both the #2 Rams (446) and #3 Chiefs (434.3).  How about that!   They average 102-yards more per game than the #16 Niners.  Bucs are also averaging 3.7 more points per game than are the Niners.  I don't think it matters which Tampa QB starts.  The Niners are 0-5 on the road.
WIN; 27-9 Bucs

BENGALS -3 (Browns)
This spread suggests to me Vegas believes the Bengals are very flawed.  And for good reason: A.J. Green is out, and the Bengals are first in NFL to surrender 300 points within ten weeks (it took Atlanta eleven weeks).  The Browns have allowed the fourth most in AFC.  It's right around this time every season when I accuse the Bengals of doing their worst work at home.  That's why I can't believe Marvin Lewis still has a job.  Nevertheless, the Bengals for a change should be able to entreat their fans with an important late season victory by a comfortable margin at home.
Loss; 35-20 Browns

Seahawks +3 1/2 (PANTHERS)
There go those Jekyll and Hyde Panthers again, now losers of two in a row.  They follow up getting blown out by the Steelers with a failed attempt at a two-point conversion vs. the toothless Lions.  I'm  anticipating a no-nonsense defensive battle at Carolina while giving Seattle a slight edge.  I would argue the Seahawks are the grittiest, most troublesome 5-5 team in the league.  They'll continue running the ball, and somewhere along the way Coach Carroll will get the best of Panthers coach Ron Rivera, who's beginning to sweat.
WIN; 30-27 Seahawks

COLTS -9 (Dolphins)
I'm starting to buy into coach Frank Reich being this master game planner.  With improved play from the offensive line, Andrew Luck and the Colts are right up there in the AFC with the Chiefs and Steelers in points scored.  The Sea Mammals are just fine when playing in the comfort of their own waters.  But they're just 1-4 when away from the Florida coast.
Loss; 27-24 Colts

CHARGERS -11 1/2 (Cardinals)
The Bolts defense is top three in the AFC, on par with that of Baltimore and Houston.  Philip Rivers and the Bolts should be looking to redeem themselves after suffering a short circuit last week at home against the Broncos.  This match-up may prove too much for Arizona rookie QB Josh Rosen to handle.
WIN; 45-10 Chargers

Steelers -3 (BRONCOS)
I realize on any given Sunday that .... stop!  I say this line is completely off.  Last week was a hiccup for the Steelers; nothing more.  They'll be just fine.  Denver has the mile high altitude working in their favor, but nothing more.  After sixty-minutes, they'll be the ones sucking wind.  Both offensively and defensively, PITT is the better team.  They seem quite united in the post Le'Veon Bell era.
Loss; 24-17 Broncos

VIKINGS -3 1/2 (Packers)
Gee I wish the Vikings still played outdoors.  These teams played to a stalemate in Week Two.  Both are now coming off loses and desperate for a win.  Minnesota's list of achievements is far from great, while losses against the Rams, Saints, and Bears, makes me question their potential playoff competitiveness.  However, Green Bay's season reads like an EKG; they're too up and down; too inconsistent; even more so than the Vikings.  The Packers have been hard luck losers of late, but they are nonetheless 0-5 on the road, and just 4-5-1 against the spread.
WIN; 24-17 Vikings

Schmear of the Week:
Steelers -3

Good Luck, and have a great Football Sunday, everyone!

Post Game:
Week Twelve Sunday Record:  6-5
Overall Week Twelve Record:  8-6
Overall Season Record:  68-83-5
Schmear of the Week:  5-7
Bagels in the Basket:  -28

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