Saturday, September 29, 2018

PIGSKIN 2018: Week Four

Week Four

Week One
Week Two
Week Three

Week Three Record ATS:  5-9
Overall Record:  16-23-1
Schmear of the Week:  3-0
Bagels in the Basket:  -1

1st and Ten:
  • L.A. Rams first team with four victories.  What Jared Goff did to Minnesota was just stupid.
  • Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are running wild.
  • The Miami Sea Mammals are basking in the South Beach sunshine ... for now.
  • After stunning the Jets in his NFL debut, Baler Mayfield makes his first NFL start this week at the Black Hole against the Raiders.
  • Ryan Fitzpatrick is first QB with three straight 400-yard games ... ever.

2nd and Long
  • Le'Veon Bell to the Jets is a long shot.  Don't believe it.
  • It's gonna be a long day for Sam Darnold.

No Gain
  • Anyone who says they predicted the Cardinals and Texans starting 0-3 are lying.
  • Oakland is an entirely different story.  I once thought Derek Carr would be the difference maker.
  • Buffalo's sacking of the Vikings means nothing to me.  File that under "Any Given Sunday"

  • What league officiating has done to Clay Matthews is a freakin' joke!  The NFL itself has nary an explanation.  They can't clarify their own rules.  Goodell has retreated into his turtle shell.

Friday Line ~ NYP

JAGUARS -7 1/2 (Jets)
Hard deciphering if whether New England spit the bit against the Jags, or the Jags clawed-up the Pats.  Jaguars sack Eli Manning twice and get in another six QB hits in Week One.  Now it's Sam Darnold's turn to face Sacksonville - good luck with that, rook.  And if Leonard Fournette plays, Darnold should expect a few less possessions.  Instead of an extended week of quality practice, the Jets have been dealing with fallout from losing to the Browns, The Butt Wipe, and the Jamal Adams he said/I didn't say that/he misspoke, post Baker Mayfield stuff.  Coach Bowles says this is a teachable moment.  I say the whole class deserves detention.
WIN; 31-12 Jaguars

GIANTS +3 1/2 (Saints)
Unlike their last meeting, I smell shootout.  Eli Apple will miss another week, while the Giants lone viable pass rusher (Olivier Vernon) remains out with a high ankle sprain (an all-time miserable and ever lingering injury).  Therefore Drew Brees will be free to attack the Giants secondary with fury (...if the Cowboys were able to spook them, imagine what Brees can do).  Even then, a compromised Giants defense has demonstrated resiliency, and has by no means been outclassed, yet.  Their offense on the other hand hasn't scored 30-points in a game for quite some time, but this may finally be the week.  The Saints give up points in bunches.  Last week, the Giants new offensive line combination provided Eli just enough time, and Saquon Barkley just enough daylight, to make play-action a viable weapon again.  That said, it's high time Eli and Odell start connecting for touchdowns against a pedestrian Saints secondary.  With Evan Engram also out of the mix, the Giants triumvirate of Eli-Beckham-Barkley must seize the moment and begin carrying this team as planned.
Loss; 33-18 Saints

Dolphins +7 (PATRIOTS)
Pretender or contender?  Wins over TEN, NYJ, and OAK do not a division title make.  But Miami sure can get to New England while they're down.  If Tannehill and the Sea Mammals play a clean game - no turnovers - they can cover against a sloppy, grumpy Patriots team still transitioning with a new coordinator.  Plus, Julian Edelman isn't due back till next week.  Belichick will eventually figure something out, but Miami knows they can steal one right now.  Winning is one thing; covering is another.
Loss; 38-7 Patriots

Texans +1 (COLTS)
What's up with the Texans?  They're not sinking to 0-4, are they?  This pick is based strictly on the law of averages.  J.J. Watt sacked Eli Manning three times and got in another five QB hits, and Eli still carved Houston up.  Enter Andrew Luck ...  Perhaps Deshaun Watson finally steps it up this week.
WIN; 37-34 Texans  o.t.

FALCONS -4 1/2 (Bengals)
This spread is tough; real tough.  I'd stay away from this game as if it had Hand, Foot, and Mouth disease.  But I trust Matt Ryan who seems to be playing with a chip on his shoulder.  Thus I'm siding with the Falcons at home.  Banking on a pick-six to help me through.  Perhaps limiting on occasion the Bengals (cough .. cough .. this era's ultimate underachievers .. cough) to field goals works too.
Loss; 37-36 Bengals

PACKERS -9 1/2 (Bills)
No one saw coming what the Bills did to Minnesota .. No one!  Damn right I'll take my chances with the GOAT on one leg.  Clay Matthews is so pissed off, he might shut down Buffalo all by himself.
WIN; 22-0 Packers

Lions +3 (COWBOYS)
Last week's Dallas pick was absolutely swayed by what the Boys did to my Giants in Week Two.  Then there's the way the Jets dismantled Detroit in Week One.  This is parity at its finest.  Take the points.  Maybe Jerry Jones will finally fire his general manager.
WIN; 26-24 Cowboys

BEARS -3 (Bucs)
Todd Bowles called ... wants to know why Ryan Fitzpatrick didn't play like this for him?  Says he has the film to prove it.  Next victim, Chicago?  Time for Khalil Mack to show the Bears why they acquired him.  This Ryan Fitzpatrick stuff needs to stop.
WIN; 48-10 Bears

Eagles -3 1/2 (TITANS)
I know Sproles is out, but Philly is still the defending champ.  Carson Wentz is back with a game under his belt.  And despite Tennessee's performance against Jacksonville, I'm still a little ehhh.. about the Titans.  Every time I show them a little Sunday luv, they let me down.
Loss; 26-23 Titans

Seahawks -3 1/2 (CARDINALS)
I find this half-point, and entire spread disturbing.  Admiral Akbar says, "It's a trap!"  The Cardinals have scored a total of 20 points through three games.  Last week was their best game in which they lost (14-16) by two points against da Bears.  Seattle, meanwhile, allows less points than Arizona, plus Russell Wilson, despite being gimpy of late, doesn't need to stay in the pocket in order to beat you.  And, well, the Cardinals look really beatable.  Vegas is up to no good.
Loss; 20-17 Seahawks

Browns +3 (RAIDERS)
The Browns are playing athletic pressure free football, which makes them dangerous.  They put up 21-points against PITT, and befuddled a fairly respectable NYJ defense.  However, Cleveland's own defense is their emerging strength.  The Raiders are having an awful time getting their act together under Gruden.  In my opinion, they got exposed more so last week by Miami than against LAR in Week One.  Chuckie won't know what hit him when them young hungry Browns start flying around making tackles everywhere.  The real fringe bet is when does Gruden blow his top at the media.
PUSH; 45-42 Raiders  o.t.

CHARGERS -10 1/2 (49ers)
No Jimmy-G ... no gold rush for you.  No disrespect toward Philip Rivers, but the Chargers win this game easily because that's what paper tigers do.
Loss; 29-27 Chargers

Ravens +3 (STEELERS)
Yes, the Steelers are home.  Yes, they've played three very intriguing games and are putting up points without Le'Veon Bell.  Yes, I cringe anytime I go against Ben Roethlisberger because he is indeed so big and bouncy.  But this has much more to do with Joe Flacco and a resurgent Baltimore offense going up against a PITT defense allowing lots of points.  All the makings of a one point game.
WIN; 26-14 Ravens

SCHMEAR of the WEEK: (3-0)
Eagles -3 1/2

Good luck, and have a great Football Sunday.

Week Four Record ATS: 6-6-1
Overall Record:  22-29-2
Schmear of the Week:  3-1
Bagels in the Basket:  -5

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