From the desk of: HEAD-BUTTING MR. MET
PLAY COVID BALL !!
Late Sunday afternoon; September 29, 2019; the Mets trail the Atlanta Braves 6-5 in the last game of the regular season; with two runners on base and two outs in the eleventh inning Dominic Smith deposits a Grant Dayton offering deep beyond the right field fence giving the Mets a dramatic walk-off 7-6 victory. After which the off-season starts like any other. However, with the onset of winter arrises news of a globe-trekking virus heading our way. By the end of February and early March, the tristate area of New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut, becomes America's epicenter of coronavirus. By mid-March major league baseball shuts down all activities as state after state begins implementing COVID protocols. Near 300 days have passed since Dominic Smith's season ending at-bat. Today, after much haggling and public harangue, MLB is finally set to resume play, albeit operating under conditions and circumstances never before experienced by sports, barring the Spanish Flu of a century ago. I am on record (Metsian Podcast) saying baseball should have cancelled the season outright, and I stand by it. Nevertheless, here we are, time to play ball. I bid health, safety, peace, and a measure of luck, to every player, coach, manager ... every single person involved with the execution of this upcoming season, and likewise to respective families.
deGROM AND MATZ, THEN PRAY FOR RAIN
Sadly, I do not foresee the Mets being top contenders in the absence of strong performances first and foremost from Steven Matz, and Marcus Stroman second.
Welcome to the 2020 season? Or should I say welcome to the new, and still transient normal?
In any event, here's something you'll find quite familiar: The Mets have problems.
The much anticipated "Five Hurlers of the Metropolis" were never able to join forces and become the super heroes we thought they'd be. Injury and overall front office negligence are largely to blame. The dream rotation of Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler, Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz, and Jacob deGrom, unfortunately fail to synchronize their talents for any substantial length of time. Thus the opposition never fully experiences what fans imagine to be the rotation's full wrath. Instead, the rotation frustratingly is a perpetual revolving door of those returning from surgery with those requiring surgery, and other like physical issues. Jacob deGrom aside, you might loosely file what transpires since 2015 as a Generation-K type Redux. But at least we get a National League pennant out of these guys - most of them - so there's that.
"FIVE HURLERS OF THE METROPOLIS"
Matt Harvey ~ Zack Wheeler ~ Jacob deGrom ~ Noah Syndergaard ~ Steven Matz
2012 - Harvey
2013 - Harvey; Wheeler
2014 - Harvey; Wheeler; deGrom
2015 - Harvey; Wheeler; deGrom; Syndergaard; Matz
2016 - Harvey; Wheeler; deGrom; Syndergaard; Matz
2017 - Harvey; Wheeler; deGrom; Syndergaard; Matz
2018 - x-Harvey; Wheeler; deGrom; Syndergaard; Matz
2019 - x-Harvey; Wheeler; deGrom; Syndergaard; Matz; Stroman
2020 - x-Harvey; x-Wheeler; deGrom; Syndergaard; Matz; Stroman; Porcello; Wacha
I enter this COVIDIAN compromised 2020 regular season with only a small fraction of the confidence I once harbored regarding this team's rotational strength. Of course Jacob deGrom is the great one, winner of back-to-back Cy Young awards. He takes the ball on Friday for Game One of sixty. But who and/or what follows deGrom is very troublesome for me.
I'm not at all pleased Zack Wheeler is a member of the Philadelphia Phillies. Wheeler in March 2019 made it very clear he welcomed free agency and that the Mets would need to meet his price. I was hoping against hope they would re-sign him. Instead the front office let the regular season play out and apparently were dissatisfied with Wheeler's performance. That's the soft core version of the story. The harder, colder truth, as we well know, ownership is flat broke. After all, Zack posted a fair 3.96 ERA and 1.259 WHiP through 195.1 innings pitched. Now 30-years old, I believe Wheeler's arm is finally sound and that his best days are still ahead. Over the last two seasons he's made 60 starts with 374 strikeouts through 377.2 innings pitched. Fangraphs had his 2018 velocity pegged at 95-mph, while last year's velocity remained steady at 96-mph. Be that as it may the Mets make him no offer. Wheeler winds up signing with Philadelphia for $118 million over five seasons. The inner general manager within me would have been agreeable to a $100 million offer, and chewing him down from the other $18 million. But I certainly would not have let that stop me. I also have a hunch Wheeler and his agent, just for sake of staying in NYC, would have been amenable to a small compromise. Lastly, Zack Wheeler I feel is/was better than any of the available replacements, namely Rick Porcello and Michael Wacha. For these reasons alone I believe the Mets enter 2020 with a weakened rotation - period, exclamation point.
Noah Syndergaard
((
( 😔
))
) as we know is out due to Tommy John surgery/recovery. Who didn't see that coming..?
But here's something whereon Brodie Van Wagenen needs to keep his eyes fixed. Marcus Stroman, who talks a real good game, is presently out with a calf injury which is an ailment BVW must consider within the context of a 60-game season. True calf injuries do not heal well; they're habitually time consuming; and without extensive rest they tend to nag for entire seasons.
I'm hopeful Rick Porcello will pitch effectively but I'm only somewhat confident he will. I like Rick Porcello, I really do. I'm (also) a Red Sox fan since the mid 1970's. Back then outside of the World Series inter-league play is nonexistent. Having a favorite American League team is a non-issue. And the answer to your next question .. NO .. I was in no way conflicted in 1986, for I am an orange/blue bleeding Mets fan. Back to the matter at hand: I have a lot of respect for Rick's body of work with Boston. The man exuded cool, calm, and clutch. I'm just not sure that success follows him to Flushing. His best seasons are 2014 when he posts a 3.43 ERA and 1.231 WHiP, and his Cy Young award winning 2016 campaign when posts a league best 22-4 record, with a 3.15 ERA, and fine 1.001 WHiP. But that's six and four years ago respectively. Outside of a 3.96 ERA during his rookie season, at no other time during his eleven year career does his season ERA dip below four. He also has yielded more hits than innings pitched in two of his last three seasons. Essentially what Mets fans need most from Rick Porcello is a classic baseball comeback season. To his credit he is a mature, poised, intelligent 30-year old craftsman. If anyone can bounce back, he can. However, anything resembling his last three seasons with Boston simply will not do.
I have much less, or little to no confidence in Michael Wacha as a starter. He and Porcello during the off-season are originally signed to be complimentary depth pitchers, and now intense pressure is suddenly being pumped into both their respective right arms. Cross your fingers in the hope all their gaskets are sealed tight. Otherwise, this rotation is gonna leak hits, runs, deficits, and losses, all over the place.
Alas Steven Matz is the Mets X factor. The day has come .. the hour is near .. this must be the season when Steven Matz seizes the role of Number Two behind Jacob deGrom. The Mets situation necessitates it. If they are to compete in a 60-game season against modified opponents such as the Yankees and Rays, along with fellow N.L. East members, they'll need an effective and reliable one-two punch. The recently turned 29-year old Matz is due for a breakout season, or not. A veteran of four full seasons in the majors, he owns a career 4.05 ERA through 103 appearances and 101 career starts. He is coming off back to back seasons of at least thirty starts, while 2019 is the first time he achieves double digit wins. However, since 2016 when he posts a 3.40 ERA in 132.1 innings pitched, his ERA has since failed to dip below four. He additionally has yet to pitch 200 innings in a single season. Therefore I say he needs to make this season his line of demarcation. Will he mature and elevate as a pitcher and craftsman, or not?
THREE ALARM FIRE STILL RAGES
Edwin Diaz is 26-years old and a veteran of four full major league seasons, during which he's averaged 67 innings per season. Therefore his shelf life is far from approaching its expiration date. But 15 home runs in 58 innings pitched? Not to mention all 15 home runs are surrendered in the ninth inning thus setting a new major league record. His 99 strikeouts and 15.4 K/9 average are outstanding. No arguing that. But a 2-7 record, seven blown saves, a 5.59 ERA, 4.51 FIP, and 1.379 WHiP, are indefensible. His fastball and change-up are not necessarily the issue. His slider, however, often resembled a cement mixer, and it cost the Mets a huge price in the standings.
FLUSHING's CORE FOUR?
Pete Alonso; Michael Conforto; Amed Rosario; Jeff McNeil: is this a core four capable of elevating the Mets to higher ground? Last season was certainly a good start. Unfortunately, the upcoming 2020 season in and of itself still leaves us with too small a sample size. And so the question remains to be answered; collective next level performance remains to be seen. For now the best we can do is monitor the competition and paint a game by game picture until a clearer vision materializes.
LET'S GO METS
ICYMI
Wednesday, July 21, 2020
GUEST
!!!!! WEAR A FREAKIN MASK !!!!!
