N.Y. Mets: Michael Conforto Stock Opens the Season on a Downtick

From the desk: HEAD-BUTTING MR. MET

Playing the Futures Game

Every Option Has Its Strike Price, But Conforto's Spread is Still Undeterminable

Before he hits the open market, both the Mets front office and super-agent Scott Boris need the real Michael Conforto to finally reveal himself.  

The two parties are agreeable to negotiating during the season.  Boras will undoubtedly seek investment as if his client were poised to become one of the premier hitters in baseball.  If you project last season over a full 162 game schedule, Conforto's career trajectory suggests he's heading in the right direction.  

But that's pure speculation.

Insofar as his ultimate valuation, herein lies a situation where it might be in the Mets' best interest for Conforto to indeed exercise his right of free agency.  That's where prices are set in a condition of supply and demand, for those with the wherewithal, that is.  Before committing to making a market, one must ask what Michael Conforto supplies and what kind of demand from Scott Boras is the Mets front office willing to entertain?  Much of that is likely being determined this season, and it is for this main reason I suspect Boras is entertaining open-ended discussions.  He needs to maximize a return before season's end, before needing to put his client up for sale, knowing full well the Mets no longer shop the discount aisle.

Michael Conforto recently turned 28-years old and is now in his seventh major league season with over 2,100 at-bats on his resume.  To date, his career .839 OPS is respectable but far from elite.  Nor is he a career .500 slugger.  That's why like the stock exchange itself, Conforto's bid and ask fluctuates with every pitch of every game.  Said another way, he is yet to firmly establish himself as one of the game's premier investment vehicles largely because he has so far failed to make a clear distinction between being common stock or the preferred variety.

Conforto has not been that type of hitter who places the team on his back and carries them because, the truth is told, those instances have been infrequent.  Why go crazy (and I did) with splits and stats like average with runners in scoring position and the like.  All those statistics demand the same thing: production; how many runs is he generating.  Thus, the following are simply the jists of what is his career highlights.

• As a rookie, there's a stretch spanning Aug. 26 - Sept. 13, where Conforto drove in eleven runs in 17 games.  He then went on to drive in six runs through twelve postseason games.  

• He got off to a hot start the following season with 18 RBI through 21 games in April, including a stretch of ten RBI through the month's last six games.  Otherwise, he was both pedestrian and injured from May through August.  In September, he drove in nine runs in 25 games.

• In 2017 Conforto gets off to a streaky start with 13 RBI in 21 games - he drives in six runs in six games; he drives in five runs over three games in another stretch.  However, in May, he drives in 21 runs in 26 games, including two separate streaks of seven RBI over five games and eight RBI over six games.  In July, he drives in 14 runs over 18 games and twice drives in four runs in one game (seven games apart).  But he downticks in August and sits out in September with an injury.

• The 2018 season goes as such: April, six RBI in 20 games; May, nine RBI in 25 games; June, nine RBI in 26 games; July, 15 RBI in 24 games; August, 14 RBI in 30 games.  In September, Michael Conforto drives in 29 runs in 28 games, including a stretch of 22 RBI over 16 games.

• In 2019 Michael Conforto, for the first time in his career, averages double-digit RBI for every month (April-Sept.)* of the season.  In May, five of his twelve RBI come in one game against the Dodgers.  His best three months were his last three.  In August, he drives in 23 runs in 27 games, including stretches of seven RBI in three games and nine RBI in six games.

• During last year's pandemic shortened season, Conforto drives in 14 runs in 27 August games and likewise drives in 14 runs in September but in eight fewer games, including five RBI in one game and four RBI in another.

• * NOTE: Conforto has no RBI in March/October regular-season games. 

Is this all indicative of more to come where it concerns proficiency, productivity, frequency, and above all, consistency?  Will the cost be commensurate with his performance?

There's a lot of potential equity in his Louisville Slugger.  The question is can Michael tap into it and become elite by Summer or the onset of Fall.  Conforto's extreme likeability is a byproduct of in-house development and fervent team support.  Stuff like that doesn't play in Adam Smith's world of free-market enterprise.  At the end of the day, preferred shareholders are guaranteed a dividend; common shareholders, not so much.