Thursday, September 27, 2018

N.Y. Mets: Denton True deGromination

From the desk of:  HEAD-BUTTING MR. MET

National League Cy Young Award

New York Mets: Max Scherzer is Great, But This Season Jacob deGrom is Better.

As the 2018 regular season winds down, the race for this year's Cy Young award is being hotly debated.  In fairness to Philadelphia Phillie Aaron Nola, he's the only candidate who pitched for a viable contender.  The Mets have long since assured themselves a sub .500 finish, and by the end of June Washington never got any closer to first place than five games.  However, I think most would agree Nola rates third behind D.C.'s Max Scherzer and the Mets own Jacob deGrom.

At 34-years of age, Max Scherzer may have pitched the best season of his career.  A three-time Cy Young award winner, Scherzer leads the majors in innings pitched and strikeouts.  He leads the National League in victories, WHiP, least hits allowed per nine innings, strikeouts per nine innings, strikeout/walk ratio, and batting average against.

He achieves 300 strikeouts for the first time in his career, making him only the 17th pitcher to achieve the feat since 1900, and only the fifth pitcher this century.

Scherzer may squeeze in one more start before the season is through.

  • 33 starts;  220.2 innings pitched;  18-7 record;  2.53 ERA;  0.911 WHiP;  300 strikeouts 6.1 H/9;  2.1 W/9;  12.2 K/9;  5.88 K/W ratio;  2.65 FIP;  168 ERA+;  .188 average against/.247 OBP/.332 SLG/.580 OPS;  0.9 HR/9;  9.0 WAR.

Jacob deGrom's season comes to an end this past Wednesday at Citi Field.  Now 30-years of age, and in his fifth season with the New York Mets, Jacob deGrom undoubtedly crafts the finest campaign of his career, and perhaps one of the most dominant in Mets history.  Jacob leads the major leagues in ERA, ERA+, HR/9, and WAR for pitchers.  He leads the National League in least walks per nine innings, OBP against, SLG against, OPS against, and FIP.  He trails Max Scherzer by only fractions in WHiP, H/9, and strikeout/walk ratio.

  • 32 starts;  217 innings pitched;  10-9 record;  1.70 ERA;  0.912 WHiP;  269 strikeouts;  6.3 H/9;  1.9 W/9;  11.15 K/9;  5.84 K/W ratio;  1.98 FIP; 219 ERA+;  .196 average against/.244 OBP/.277 SLG/.521 OPS0.4 HR/9;  9.8 WAR.

In his most recent start, Max Scherzer allows just one earned run on five hits and no walks, and strikes out ten Miami Marlins en route to his 18th victory.  In his final start of the season, Jacob deGrom tosses eight scoreless innings, allows just two hits and no walks, and fans ten Atlanta Braves en route to his tenth victory of the season.

Photo finish?

Hardly ...

Max Scherzer on average benefited from 5.27 runs per start.  The Mets line-up provided just 3.53 runs in support of deGrom.

If that sounds like a pity party, then perhaps there's a better case to be made for sustainability.

Max Scherzer fades considerably down the stretch.  His 1.95 ERA as of June 5 only grows and has remained above two ever since.  In his six starts (Aug. 23 - Sept. 20) previous to that against Miami, Scherzer allows 20 earned runs through 39 innings pitched for a 4.61 ERA.

Since May 2, Jacob deGrom's ERA never once climbs above two.  On April 16 (against the Nationals) he throws the first of his MLB record-setting 29 consecutive starts allowing three runs or less.  Jacob breaks Doc Gooden's Mets record of 24, but moreover breaks the MLB record of 25 established back in 1910 by Chicago Cub, King Cole.  The streak also ties the overall mark set over two seasons by former Chicago Cub, Jake Arrieta.*

I'm not done ...

While Max Scherzer allows one run or less in 12 (36%) of his 33 starts, Jacob deGrom allows one run or less in 21 (65%) of his 32 starts.

That's what you call Denton True deGromination.


1969 - Tom Seaver; allows one run or less in 16 (45%) of 35 starts.
1973 - Tom Seaver; allows one run or less in 16 (44%) of 36 starts.
1975 - Tom Seaver; allows one run or less in 14 (38%) of 36 starts.
1985 - Dwight Gooden; allows one run or less in 19 (54%) of 35 starts.
2012 - R.A. Dickey; allows one run or less in 15 (44%) of 34 starts.

I repeat, Jacob deGrom this season allows one run or less in 21 (65%) of 32 starts.

Note: May 13; one inning pitched.


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