N.Y. Islanders: Someone's Bubble is About to Pop

From the desk of: NO SLEEP TILL BELMONT

NATIONAL HOCKEY LEAGUE

2019   PLAYOFFS   2020

Series Tied; 3-3

I - NYI 4; PHI 0

II - PHI 4; NYI 3*

III - NYI 3; PHI 1

IV - NYI 3; PHI 2

V - PHI 4; NYI 3*

VI - PHI 5; NYI 4*

*overtime

Once is an Event; Twice is a Coincidence; Three Times is a Trend

Two Clinching Opportunities Wasted; One Chance Left

Can the Islanders hold the Flyers to a pair of goals or less?  The answer is yes, they've done it three times.  Can the Flyers score three or more regulation time goals?  The answer is yes, they've done it three times.  It's no coincidence all three Philadelphia victories come in overtime.  The Flyers in those games outscore the Islanders by a 13-10 margin - makes sense, one goal per overtime.  Otherwise the Islanders own a 10-3 scoring advantage through games one, three and four.  But the fact both teams are heading into game seven means they're dead even.  Stats be damned.

Somehow special teams have been rendered inconsequential.  You might even say the Isles are lucky to have four PP goals in 17 chances.  Meanwhile, the Flyers are scoreless in eleven PP opportunities.
Said another way, all Philadelphia's scoring is occurring at even strength and that's the last thing Islanders fans want to hear.

Heck, you might even say the Isles were fortunate to have Mathew Barzal on the ice.  He leads the team in game six with nine shots, and (at the time) scores the go ahead goal with thirty seconds left in the second period.

Now trend this ...

The Islanders get in big trouble when they let Philadelphia score consecutive goals.

• They allow three unanswered goal in the first period of game two before losing 4-3 in overtime.  
• Late in the second period of game five they allow back to back goals within three minutes of each other, then in the opening minutes of the third yield a third straight goal before losing in overtime.  
• In the first period of game six Philadelphia scores back to back first period goals within two minutes of each other en route to winning in overtime.

With regards to possession, the Flyers are winning the face-off battle four games against two, but what good is that if you give the puck away thirty times as they did in game six.  Otherwise, Long Island is not lacking for opportunities.  They actually flipped the switch on the Flyers from game five to six.  The Isles took 53 shots on goal versus 31 for the Flyers.  However, Philly blocked another 31 shots, making for 84 total Islanders attempts on net; they in turn blocked 29 shots giving Philly 60 total attempts on net.

So, are the Islanders suffering a crisis in net or is the play in front breaking down?

In his defense, Semyon Varlamov needed Superman x-ray vision in order to see Thursday's final shot on goal.  The crease was packed with bodies like pre-COVID Times Square.  Lest we forget Varlamov was pulled in game two which the Islanders lose in overtime, but he bounces back allowing the Flyers just one goal in game three and two goals in game four.  Varlamov was fending off 93% of all shots on goal through game four.  However, the Flyers have now scored nine goals over the last seven-plus periods.

I don't know who Barry Trotz starts in net: Varlamov or Thomas Greiss.  I do know the Islanders have been playing a lot of comeback hockey lately only to come up short in the end.  Whoever starts in net, the Islanders need to prevent the Flyers from scoring in bursts.

It doesn't seem to matter who the Flyers start.  Carter Hart has started five games and Brian Elliott one.  Each has yielded no less than three goals.

Cue the broken record; the song remains the same.  Scoring and playing physical hockey are not the Islanders problem.  Defense and net minding will once more determine the measure of Islanders success.

They aren't going to outscore the Flyers and still lose the series, are they?