N.Y. Islanders: Game One Goes According to Script

From the desk of: NO SLEEP TILL BELMONT

NATIONAL HOCKEY LEAGUE

2019   PLAYOFFS   2020

Isles Lead Capitals; 1-0

I - NYI 4; WAS 2

Josh Bailey's Shorthanded Goal Upends Capitals

There is no belittling the Florida Panthers.  They are a viable opponent, their 35-34-8 final record says so.  But the Islanders handle them rather neatly, three games to one.  They outscore the Panthers 13-7, which translates into 1.75 goals per game for Florida, and 3.25 goals per game for the Isles.

The Islanders limit the Panthers to an average of 25 shots per game.  Semyon Varlamov faces 103 shots overall, making 96 saves.  Four of his seven goals allowed come on the penalty kill.  Said another way, he allows three even strength goals over the course of twelve periods of hockey.

Varlamov starts 45 regular seasons games; Thomas Greiss makes 34 starts.  Statistically, Varlamov is the better between the two, barely.  He is so far outplaying his regular season performance (.914 SV% and 2.62 GAA).

Okay, what does this all mean?

Coach Trotz takes over a dawdling team, and with very little change in personnel other than the departure of John Tavares transforms them into a contender.  But playing with physicality and scoring have never really been issues for the Islanders.  Defense and goaltending, now there's the rub.

Enter the Washington Capitals, who finish with a 41-28-8 (90 points) record, and a plus/25 point differential.  The Islanders go 35-33-10 (80 points), with a minus/one point differential.

In Game One, Varlamov and the Islanders stay true, as if following a script.

Varlamov faces a familiar 26 shots, making 24 saves.  Washington's two goals come on the power play; both by T.J. Oshie; none at even strength.  Down 2-0 midway through the second, the Islanders go on to score four unanswered goals.  Jordan Eberle's goal in the last two minutes of period two, and Anders Lee's game tying goal within the first two minutes of period three are daggers in the backs of the Capitals and goalie Braden Holtby.  Josh Bailey's short-handed goal at the 6:52 is the twist.  Anthony Beaullivier scores at 11:55 just to be safe.  The Isles also dominate face-offs by a 36-20 margin.

Anders Lee and Washington's Tom Wilson join for twenty penalty minutes; nine for Lee; eleven for Wilson; advantage Islanders.  However, they afford the Capitals seven power play opportunities.  It leads to an early deficit.  Credit the PK with thwarting five other opportunities, and picking up a goal.

Otherwise, do what you gotta do, but stay out of the damn box.  Playing five on five has always been a strength.