Sunday, February 04, 2018

PIGSKIN 2017: SUPER BOWL LII



PIGSKIN

SUPER BOWL LII

PHILADELPHIA 
EAGLES
vs.
NEW ENGLAND 
PATRIOTS

Let me just come right out and say it: I am an unyielding Bill Belichick minion.  

I've been a Giants fan since the 1970s, and therefore will always be indebted to him for helping the Giants win their first ever Super Bowl, then for personally crafting a brilliant game plan aimed at thwarting the mighty Buffalo Bills in Super Bowl XXV four years later.

Giants fans knew 35-years ago what all of football knows now - the man is a freaking genius.

I can't help but pledge unconditional devotion to him.  Belichick can secretly film other team's practice all he wants; his quarterback can deflate as many footballs as he chooses; and if it pleases Bill to be a major schmuck with the media, so be it.  None of that matters to me, because in my eyes, Simon Bar Belichick can do no wrong so long as it doesn't affect me.

For those of you too young to know who Simon Bar Sinister is, Google it!

Entering Sunday's game, the Giants are still the only team to have defeated the Brady/Belichick/Kraft triumvirate throughout their previous seven Super Bowl appearances.  Had the Giants not defeated Belichick - twice - perhaps I might see things differently.

But that's precisely what makes Big Blue's accomplishments so special.  And that's exactly the way I want things to stay.  The thought of Philadelphia winning their first ever Super Bowl makes the back of my head hurt.  Naturally, my sports hatred for them goes all the way back to the 1970s as well.


Think of all the coaches and coordinators whom have previously served under Bill Belichick.  Then think of all the replacement coaches he's needed to hire, and get up to speed.  Continue with all the players whom have come and gone over the last eighteen years.  Keep thinking how many of their best players were never allowed to get very comfortable, nor stay with New England very long - everyone not named Tom Brady, that is.  Otherwise, if you agree to keep your mouth shut, do exactly what he says, and sign a reasonable contract, Belichick will most likely make you a Super Bowl champion.

The Patriots have proven time and again they are masters at making in-game and half-time adjustments.  That's where I question any given coach's ability to match wits with Belichick - especially when he has two weeks to prepare.

Enter Doug Pederson.  He's an Andy Reid disciple, but is better known for being the man who replaced the reviled Chip Kelly.  That's two positives working in his favor.  The play of Carson Wentz, and the relief performance he's been able to get from Nick Foles are two more highlights on his short resume.

And there's rub ...

Pederson is a former journeyman player, who otherwise was named head coach of the Eagles after just five years of credible NFL coaching experience.

So who do I trust to manage this game more effectively?  I think I already answered that.

Otherwise, here's my bottom line ...

Can the Eagles score more than twenty points?

Rushing the ball, getting key first downs, and controlling the clock, are proven methods for idling Tom Brady.  If he's on the sidelines, he's not making plays.

The Eagles were one of only seven teams during the regular season to average 100+ rushing yards per game.  They were also top five in both total yards, and passing yards per game.  Much of that is owed to Carson Wentz.  But the Eagles seemingly haven't skipped a beat with Nick Foles under center.  He was 23/30 for 246 yards in Philadelphia's first playoff game against the Falcons, and 26/33 for 352 yards with three TD passes against a very good Minnesota Vikings defense.

But here's the thing.  Over the final twelve weeks of the regular season, the Patriots only allowed fourteen points per game.  They've since allowed an average of seventeen points through two playoff games against Tennessee and Jacksonville.

On defense, the Giants showed the best way to beat Tom Brady is by hitting him - often - by applying consistent pressure up the middle.  To date, no team has done that better than the Giants front lines of 2007 and 2011.  Philadelphia finished the regular season 15th with 38 QB sacks.  That's an average of 2.3 per game, which may not be enough to negatively affect New England's time of possession.

However, the more Tom Brady throws the ball, the more he potentially plays into Philadelphia's hands - who were fourth this season in interceptions.  But I doubt it ... Tom Brady only threw eight INTs during the regular season.  He has only thrown fifteen over the previous three regular seasons.  In fact, he's only thrown 160 INTs in 253 career regular season games.  However, in 36 career playoff starts, Brady has thrown 31 interceptions.  If that suggests he's somewhat susceptible to throwing post-season picks, just remember he has still completed 63% of his playoff passes, and has thrown 68 touchdowns.

All that being said, what the hell do I know.

I like the Patriots laying 4 1/2 points to the Eagles..

They may not cover, but I think they'll win.

I hope they win.

Down with Philly!

Dilly - dilly!


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