From the desk: HEAD-BUTTING MR. MET
What do David Cone and Edwin Diaz
Have in Common?
Edwin Diaz's relatively effective 2020 performance for many Mets fans did little to bury the memories of his rather disastrous 2019 campaign. But if indeed you safely tucked them away in the recesses of your Metsian mind, then allow me to resurrect them.
Despite an impressive 15.4% K/9 average and a 39.0% strikeout rate versus batters faced, Edwin yielded 58 hits in 58 innings pitched, of which 25.8% went for home runs. Moreover, those home runs were coming with men on base. He averaged a 3.9 W/9 average, a career-high .258 average against, and a career-low 76.2% LOB, all of which translated into an inflated 5.59 ERA; 1.379 WHiP; 3.77 BABIP; 4.51 FIP. He saved 26 (78.8%) of 33 opportunities, blowing seven with seven losses.
Last season's performance was clearly an improvement, to say the least. However, we must keep things within the context of a pandemic compromised season. Diaz saved six of ten opportunities with just one loss. In only 26 appearances and 25.2 innings pitched, Edwin posted career-highs with a 17.9 K/9 average and 45.5% strikeout rate versus batters faced. He, more importantly, posted a considerably lower 6.3 H/9 average and yielded just two home runs (which over a full season projects very favorably). Meanwhile, his average against dipped over 70 points to .181 while his LOB improved to a career-high 89.7% - a 13.5% improvement over the previous season - all of which translated into an obviously improved and quite stellar 1.75 ERA. But whereas his 2.81 FIP is a clear improvement, his .388 BABIP was not nor his career-high 4.9 W/9 average, which directly inflated his 1.247 WHiP.
Two very different seasons; two very different outcomes, which begs the question, which version can the 2021 Mets expect. There's always sequencing, in which a bad season precedes the good. That speaks of improvement. Had the bad followed the good, we'd be discussing a setback - a rather major setback at that.
Insofar as repertoire, Diaz is strictly fastball/slider and has demonstrated consistency in velocity and application throughout his five seasons. On average, he throws a 97.4mph fastball at a rate of 65.5 %, while throwing on average an 88.6mph slider with a 34.3% rate of frequency.
Perhaps attributable to physical maturity, last season as a 26-year old, Edwin's 97.8mph fastball and 89.6mph slider represented career-highs. But he also demonstrated adaptability. A change in applied craftsmanship saw him throw his fastball a career-low 61.5% - exactly four points below his career average. Not coincidentally, his slider increased to a career-high 37.9% rate of frequency - exactly four points over the previous season.
How did that work out?
In 2019, Diaz's offerings resulted in a 43.4% Pull Rate - see home runs, right? Last year that number dropped to a career-low 31.1% Pull Rate. However, opposing batters last season went the opposite way against Diaz, a career-high rate of 40.9% versus 27.1% from two years ago. Said another way, batters generally appeared late and behind Edwin's stuff. I believe his career-low 25% Hard Hit metric supports this. I also believe it is the net result of better executing his slider, more so than any gained velocity on his fastball. I harken back to David Cone's days with the Mets. Many times over, again and again, his sidearm and three-quarter delivery, like Diaz, would render many well-intentioned sliders into frisbees with Smash Me written all over it.
If last year is an indication, maybe Diaz and pitching coach Jeremy Hefner actually have this under control. Or, so we hope. Otherwise, there's no further need in trumpeting the importance of a shutdown closer to any pennant run and beyond. For better or worse, I think Mets fans understand that all too well.
Does all this explain his turnaround? I don't know. Last season provided a small sample size, nothing more, nothing less. His naysayers are still well represented at the discussion table. But like all players, the test will be returning to a full season. There is a lot of ability in that 27-year old right arm, and composure has never been an issue. He's only now entering his prime. I'm therefore looking forward to a more experienced pitcher hopefully demonstrating continuous improvement and elevated craftsmanship.
Great in-depth analysis. Think you are the first the mention the slider improvement though I think I remember stories that Phil Regan was also trying to help him with this when he was the coach.
ReplyDeleteThanks, John. Let's cross our fingers and hope for the best.
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