PIGSKIN 2017: Divisional Round

PIGSKIN

DIVISIONAL WEEKEND

Regular Season Results

Wild Card Round

SATURDAY GAMES

Falcons -3 (EAGLES)
The way I see things, Las Vegas says the home team will lose by six.  Very interesting.  The Eagles were one of four teams to finish the regular season with an NFL best 13-3 record.  On closer inspection, their only three losses came against teams with winning records (Chiefs, Seahawks, and Cowboys).  Eight of their thirteen victories came against teams with losing records.  But that's just called taking care of business.  Otherwise, their five noteworthy victories came against the Chargers, Panthers, Cowboys, Rams, and the (8-8) Cardinals - none of which are active this weekend.  There's something to be said for not judging Philly based on their performance over the last two weeks of the season - which they essentially treated as garbage time.  Fools, I say!  I'm a huge proponent of playing out every game and finishing strongly.  And Nick Foles's performance against the Cowboys during the regular season finale should indeed be held against him.  But, Mike!  Five of Atlanta's six losses this season came against teams which qualified for this year's playoffs.  That doesn't inspire much confidence, does it?  Yeah, I know.  They're clearly not the same team they were last year.  Looking back on the season, there does appear to have been a slight disconnect between Matt Ryan and his new offensive coordinator.  But that does not diminish the fact Ryan is one of the league's top quarterbacks.  I know Philly has a damn good defense, but do not underestimate that of the Falcons.  I expect a hard fought game, with both teams attempting to establish the run.  That said, I'm "loading the box" against Philly and daring Nick Foles to beat me if I'm Atlanta.  Offensively, the veteran and playoff tested Matt Ryan will remain relatively calm, cool, and collected.  Nick Foles?  I'm not so sure.  Who is more likely to make the big mistake in a close game?  I'm siding with the defending NFC champs.
LOSS  15-10 Eagles


PATRIOTS -13 1/2 (Titans)
Sorry Titans fans, it's pumpkin time for Cinderella.  The numbers just do not add up.  I know stats alone don't always tell the full story.  But it's two minutes to midnight and prince Derrelle Revis is nowhere in sight.  Sadly, there will be no happy ending; no Marcus Mariota self-pass touchdown reception to save Tennessee this time.  Evidence supporting the notion Kansas City choked last week far outweighs any argument favoring the Titans' performance during their stunning 22-21 victory over the Chiefs.  Fairy tale fortune aside, 22-points will not be good enough against the Patriots.  It takes more than pretty glass slippers to escape Foxboro with a victory.   After allowing an average 32-points through their first four games of the season, the Patriots have allowed just 14-points per game since!  Over the final 12 weeks of the season, only the Steelers and Dolphins(?) managed 20+ points against them.  Meanwhile, Tennessee only averaged 20.8 points per game this season.  In fact, they posted a -22 point differential during the regular season.  Meanwhile, we know well how Tom Brady and the Pats love to pile on points and have covered larger spreads than this.  The Patriots posted a +162 point differential this season.  Besides, when Bill Belichick gets two weeks to prepare for an opponent, they're as good as done.  On defense, Simon Bar Belichick takes away the one thing teams do best.  So who is it gonna be, Mariota or Derrick Henry?  If Belichick gives the Titans a dose of bend-don't-break, Mariota could very well wind up rushing for more yards than passing.  But what good will that do?  Victory is achieved in the pocket.  So, flee at your own risk, I say.
WIN  35-14 Patriots


SUNDAY GAMES

STEELERS -7 (Jaguars)
What is the Jaguars pass rush against tumbling stumbling rumbling Big Ben Roethlisburger?  When they last met in Week Five, JAX sacked Ben twice, and hit him seven other times.  The Jags also picked him off five times!  Moreover, they limited Le'Veon Bell to just 47 yards on 15 rushes.  Big Ben otherwise threw for over 300 yards (no touchdowns), while Antonio Brown had ten receptions for 157 yards.  On offense, Jacksonville rushed for over 200 yards en route to a 30-9 blowout victory in Pittsburgh.  Here's the problem: despite getting out of Steel City with a huge victory, Blake Bortles was only 8/14 for 95 yards, and threw an interception.  Has anything changed since then?  The answer is NO.  Bortles was 12/23 for just 87 yards, with a TD pass, during last week's yawn inspiring 10-3 Jags victory over the Buffalo Bills.  I'm sorry, but he's not even on Trent Dilfer's level, and this isn't the 2000 Baltimore Ravens defense.  In other words, The Jags need so much more from Bortles if they are to defeat the Steelers for a second time in Pittsburgh, much less in the playoffs.  That's because Leonard Fournette will not rush for 188 yards (90 yards on one play) again.  Coach Mike Tomlin will make sure of that.  And he's going to force Blake Bortles into plucking a rabbit out of his posterior ... when he's not sitting on it, that is.  Do not anticipate Big Ben throwing another five picks.  That said, after the main objective which is chasing down a Super Bowl, the Steelers enter this game with nothing but revenge on their minds.  They have gone 10-1 since that lopsided Week Five loss.  Jacksonville meanwhile ended their regular season with losses against Jimmy Garopolo's Niners, and the Titans.
Loss  45-42 Jaguars


Saints +5 (VIKINGS)
These teams met back in Week One.  Sam Bradford threw for 346 yards and three touchdowns en route to a 29-19 victory over the Saints at Minnesota.  The Vikings Dalvin Cook also rushed for 127 yards that game.  Due to a season-long knee injury, Bradford's only other start came back in October against the Bears.  Cook, meanwhile, tore his ACL in Week Four.  In other words, nothing about Week One matters if you're the Saints.  However, back-up quarterback Case Keenum has filled in well, throwing for over 3,500 yards through 15 regular season games.  He threw for 300+ yards in a game twice this season, most recently in Week Sixteen against Tampa.  He has 22 TD passes versus just seven INTs.  That's great for a back-up, particularly if you're a Minnesota fan.  But what really matters this week is that Drew Brees is a Super Bowl champion, and Case Keenum is making his first playoff start.  In the backfield, Latavius Murray has averaged just 67 yards a game since taking over for Dalvin Cook.  The Carolina Panthers defeated the Vikings in Week 14 despite ineffectual passing from Cam Newton.  Instead, Carolina defeated the Vikings 31-24 primarily on the ground with 200+ yards rushing.  Unlike Week One, perhaps Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram this time around can better carry their fair share of the load.  Despite them, Drew Brees threw for 291 yards and a TD that game.  While it's true that Minnesota yielded the least points in the NFL this season, the Saints have also limited opponents under 20-points in eight of their eleven victories.  In other words, the weight of the world is on Case Keenum not to screw it up.  With another representative effort from New Orleans' defense, and a turnover, perhaps the Saints keep marching on.
PUSH  29-24 Vikings