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Wednesday, April 28, 2021

N.Y. Mets: On Jacob's Escalating deGromination

From the desk: HEAD-BUTTING MR. MET

GREAT HURLERS OF METROPOLIS

This has everything to do with Jacob deGrom's performance last Friday, Apr. 23, against the Washington Nationals and the respectful fan debate that broke out on Twitter insofar as comparing and contrasting Tom Seaver, Dwight Gooden, and Jacob deGrom.

First, as someone who witnessed all three, I think I speak for like Mets fans in saying we've been blessed with a tradition steeped in such great starting pitching.

The following Tweets served as our impetus for conversation:




I was manning @THEMetsianPod the night of deGrom's masterpiece when thousands of thought bubbles exploded over my head.  I couldn't help but respond in several differing ways.  If you didn't know, @MetFanRich is one of my partners on the podcast, and @Coopz22 is similarly a friend of ours and the podcast.

First, my response to CTMetsFan:
  • "This team and pandemic crowds vs. 1980s crowds and that raucous team complicate the answer."

Then, in reply to both, I said:
  • "Doc was never better than 1984-1986, whereas deGrom is getting better by the season."

Somewhere along the way, I said:
  • "Seaver, like Jacob, also had to fend for himself at the plate.  Ironically, the 1980s Mets took excellent care of Doc."


  • I also added that Jacob deGrom underwent Tommy John surgery as a minor league, and so I think time will be on his side.  
  • In response to another comment, I said RA Dickey was a bright light during dim times and that he was a great craftsman but shouldn't be included in this exclusive company.

Then I dropped this ...


And this ...


⚾

My Mets fandom comes from my Mom's side of the family, whereas my father was a huge Yankees fan, but he also loved watching Tom Seaver.  I attended just one game in 1973 at the original Yankee Stadium.  During the summers of 1974 and 1975, he and I practically lived at Shea Stadium as the ballpark in the Bronx was undergoing renovations.  When 1976 rolled around, the monumental effort it took my pop to ensure we'd keep following both teams was revealed to me.  Bless his soul, for it afforded this young boy a fine view during numerous Tom Seaver starts.

I remember being at several of his games in 1974, particularly his Sept. 13, eleven strikeout, shutout performance against the Cubs.  Yes, I was young, but my father spoke glowingly of it.  I attended Opening Day in 1975, in which Seaver allowed just one earned run with nine strikeouts for the win.  In September, I watched Seaver shut out the Pirates on four hits and ten strikeouts for his 20th win of the season.  It was a day game with a huge crowd, and the place went nuts.  By this time, I had learned how to keep score.  Unbeknownst to me at that moment, I had just spent the summer witnessing Seaver's third Cy Young award-winning campaign.  

The following season of 1976 is when Pop and I attended our most Tom Seaver starts.  I watched The Franchise strike out eight Montreal Expos on Opening Day and was in attendance later that month when he fanned nine in a complete-game shutout performance against the Braves.  In July, I attended his ten strikeouts in ten scoreless innings loss against the Pirates.  Another loss against Dave Winfield and the San Diego Padres comes to mind.  So, yes, I sat through several defeats as well.  Later in September, I saw him strike out eight in a victory over the Cubs.

As we know, Tom Seaver was traded away the following summer ... *(sigh)*

⚾

In 2014, Jacob deGrom, like Tom Seaver and Doc Gooden before him, wins the Rookie of the Year award.

A year later, Jacob deGrom's winning effort over the Dodgers in Game One of the 2015 NLDS goes down as one of the organization's finest all-time playoff performances. He faces 27 batters over 7 innings, allowing no runs on just five hits, walking one, and striking out 13 batters for the victory.  He ties Tom Seaver for most strikeouts in a post-season game by a Met.  In the opening game of the 1973 NLCS against the Reds, Seaver strikes out 13 batters over 8.1 innings yet takes the loss.  Jacob deGrom also becomes only the third Mets pitcher to achieve double-digit strikeouts in a post-season game.  Seaver strikes out twelve batters against the Oakland A's in the '73 World Series but earns a no-decision, and Dwight Gooden fans ten Los Angeles Dodgers through 7 innings to open the 1988 NLCS but likewise walks off to a no-decision.

In 2018, a 30-year old Jacob deGrom crafts the finest campaign of his career to date, and perhaps one of the most dominant in Mets history.  Jacob leads the major leagues in ERA, ERA+, HR/9, and WAR for pitchers.  He leads the National League in fewest walks per nine innings, OBP against, SLG against, OPS against, and FIP.  He trails only Max Scherzer by mere fractions in WHiP, H/9, and strikeout/walk ratio.

  • 32 Regular Season Starts
  • 217 innings pitched
  • 10-9 record
  • 1.70 ERA
  • 0.912 WHiP
  • 269 strikeouts
  • 6.3 H/9
  • 1.9 W/9
  • 11.15 K/9
  • 5.84 K/W ratio
  • 1.98 FIP
  • 219 ERA+
  • .196 average against/.244 OBP/.277 SLG/.521 OPS
  • 0.4 HR/9
  • 9.8 WAR

On April 16, he throws the first of his MLB record-setting 29 consecutive starts allowing three runs or less.  Jacob first breaks Doc Gooden's Mets record of 24 straight, then breaks the MLB record of 25 established back in 1910 by Chicago Cub King Cole.  The streak also tied the overall mark set over two seasons by Jake Arrieta.  Only four times throughout the streak did Jacob actually allow three runs.  He otherwise limited the opponent to two runs or less in 23 of 28 previous starts.  Moreover, Jacob deGrom allows one run or less in 21 (65%) of his 32 starts en route to his first Cy Young.  After May 2, Jacob deGrom's ERA never once climbs above two.  That's what you call Denton True deGromination.  

In 2019, Jacob deGrom opened the season by extending the record to 30 straight starts allowing three runs or less.

National League Cy Young Award
  • 1969: Tom Seaver
  • 1973: Tom Seaver
  • 1975: Tom Seaver
  • 1985: Dwight Gooden
  • 2012: R.A. Dickey
  • 2018: JACOB deGROM
  • 2019: JACOB deGROM
PITCHERS TO WIN CONSECUTIVE CY YOUNG AWARDS: Sandy Koufax; Denny McLain; Jim Palmer; Greg Maddux; Roger Clemens; Pedro Martinez; Randy Johnson; Tim Lincecum; Clayton Kershaw; Max Scherzer. 
In only his sixth season in the major leagues Jacob deGrom adds his name to the list becoming just the eleventh pitcher in major league history to win back-to-back Cy Young awards.

Jacob deGrom joins Tom Seaver as the only Mets pitchers to win multiple awards.  In 2019 he won his first ERA title and led major league baseball in strikeouts.  He exceeds 200 strikeouts for the fourth time in his career and pitches at least seven innings in 19 of his 32 starts.  Over the course of his two Cy Young seasons, deGrom limits the opposition to just two runs or less in 51 of 64 starts and compiles 524 strikeouts. 

Last season, albeit compromised by COVID, he leads the National League for a second straight season in strikeouts while posting a career-best 13.8 K/9 average.  He also registers a career-low 6.2 H/9 average, while his 2.38 ERA is his second-lowest.  In fact, last year marked the third straight season he posted a BABIP below three, an ERA below 2.50, and a WHiP below one.  

Jacob deGrom turns 33-years old this coming June and is showing no signs of slowing down.  

Like any savvy veteran, he's been going about his craft a little differently.

  • 2014 - fastball 61.5%; slider 16.5%; curveball 9.9%; change-up 12.1%.
  • 2020 - fastball 44.9%; slider 35.6%; curveball 2.6%; change-up 16.9%.

Is he adjusting for age and lost velocity?

Hardly ...

Jacob deGrom's velocity is still on the rise, as has been throughout his career.  According to Fangraphs, he enters the league in 2014 with a 94.5mph fastball then effectively gains velocity in each of the next six seasons to close out 2020 with a career-high 99.0mph fastball - an increase of 1.8mph over 2019, a 2.2mph increase over his first Cy Young season, and a 4.5mph increase over his rookie season.  Last season batters were swinging at the most offerings in deGrom's career but making contact at an all-time low.

But just when we thought we had him figured out, now he's in the midst of bucking all sorts of trends.

Through four starts, he is averaging a career-high 98.8 mph fastball.  Moreover, he's offering it at a rate of 63.2%, a new career-high.  He's throwing his change-up at a career-low rate, use of his slider is down 9%, and he is yet to throw a curveball.

  • 2021 - fastball 63.2%; slider 26.6%; curveball 0.0%; change-up 9.7%.
 
Entering Wednesday's start against the Red Sox, Jacob deGrom is averaging 7.1 innings per start.  He presently owns an MLB best 0.31 ERA through 29.0 innings pitched, with a career-low 4.9 H/9 average, and a career-high 15.5 K/9 average.  He has faced 101 batters so far, yielding just 13 hits and three walks, with a major league-leading 50 strikeouts.

Jacob has fanned no fewer than 14 batters in each of his last three starts, and of course, there was Friday's masterpiece: a complete game two-hit shutout with no walks and a career-high 15 strikeouts against the Washington Nationals.  He struck out nine in a row at one point, coming withing one more consecutive strikeout of tying Tom Seaver's major league record of ten consecutive batters recorded back in 1971 against the San Diego Padres.

I'm content to judge Jacob deGrom based against his contemporaries, just as I am with Tom Seaver against his own contemporaries.  But I refuse to compare and contrast one with the other.  I will say of all the great pitchers to ever don a Mets uniform, Jacob deGrom's craftmanship and skill most rivals Tom Terrific.

UPDATE: Wednesday vs. Boston Red Sox
  • Jacob deGrom yields just one earned run on three hits and one walk with nine strikeouts over six innings pitched.  He throws 93 pitches with 66 (70.9%) going for strikes but leaves on the losing side of a 1-0 contest.

Of course, he does ...



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