N.Y. Mets: Brodie and the Budget

From the desk of:  HEAD-BUTTING MR. MET

New York Mets: Not out of the woods yet, but light is beginning to shine through the leaves.

One of the major criticisms fans levy against ownership: the Wilpons can be swayed into spending money, they just do not spend wisely.

I knew the off-season would greatly test Brodie Van Wagenen's creativity.  After just two weeks on the job, it appears he's already passing with flying colors.  BVW reasoned upon acquiring Cano/Diaz how in past years the club too often tethered potential success with hopeful "if" scenarios; something Mets fans have been complaining about for years.  Only this time someone in the front office finally acknowledged it, and actually verbalized the corrosive effect it has had on fans.

We asked for change; we got change.  But due to ownership's continuing financial constraints, how many more changes either this year or next can we realistically expect? 

Ownership has never been forthright when it concerns club finances (so what else is new...).  As a result, they consistently leave themselves open to wide ranging speculation.  But there's obviously much more going on than meets the eye, behind the scene matters of which we're not privy.  In the meantime, I present this small sample of public information in order to somewhat reveal the club's current financial situation:

"When they say it's not about the money, it's about the money." - George Young, former general manager New York Giants.

Fred Wilpon and Saul Katz back in August of 2015 refinanced (over five years) the remaining roughly $700 million dollars of debt stemming from the Bernie Madoff implosion and post-recovery.  As such, the Mets/SNY-TV still owe lenders on average $140 million over each of the next two seasons.

In 2015, the year they won the pennant, the Mets drew 2,569,753 fans.  In 2016, they drew 2,789,602 fans to Citi Field.  After the season, Forbes reported Mets overall revenue rose 10%, to $167 million, up 43% over the previous season.

According to a June 2018 Bloomberg report, the $650 million in municipal bonds issued to build Citi Field were upgraded to slightly above junk status as Moody's Investors Service says investors can count on revenue from naming rights, sponsorship contracts, concessions, parking and premium seats.  The report points out that a little more than one-third of stadium revenue pledged to the bonds, about $60 million, comes from those sources, providing a very predictable cash flow.  The report goes on to say stadium costs are stable and debt service is level.

Rounded math says from 2016 through 2018 stadium revenue grew by roughly $20 million.  However, since 2016, attendance has dropped by over half a million.

For the moment, Baseball Reference lists the Mets 2019 projected salary commitment at $125.2 million.  Based on excitement created by the acquisition of Cano/Diaz, I'll assume Citi Field will experience a slight uptick in attendance, which theoretically should generate more revenue, perhaps achieving upwards of $190 million plus(?).  But once we add debt/bond payments, they're understandably cutting it really close. 

The Mets have just six players to speak of under contract: Robinson Cano; Yoenis Cespedes; Juan Lagares; Todd Frazier; Jason Vargas; and David Wright.  The only other people extracting large sums of Mets money are bankers.  Otherwise, the rest of the roster is populated by the arbitration proletariat.

Then there's the issue of recovered insurance, which is where the Mets can really put their money where their mouth is.  In the meantime, both Jeff Wilpon and BVW very recently reiterated more transactions are forthcoming.  Sounds promising, but I understand real financial flexibility is still about two years away.

"Brodie knows the parameters we're working with." - Jeff Wilpon

And so do we ... kinda.

*Attendance - Baseball Reference